A heaping helping of hot takes from a wild day in Lincoln:
It all started with a fake tweet that turned out to be (somewhat) correct.
The day started off fast with a tweet purporting to be from Brett McMurphy, claiming that Scott Frost was going to meet with Trev Alberts to discuss his future, with a formal announcement to follow.
The tweet was quickly removed, and the offending account was suspended. But it provides an opportunity for a couple of reminders:
- If it looks too juicy to be true, it probably is.
- Be sure to double check the account’s name and handle before tapping that retweet button. Look for the blue checkmark, too.
- Don’t impersonate people for kicks/clout/the chance to troll* another fanbase. It doesn’t end well.
*I’ve met the guy who sent the tweet, and have followed him for a few years. He’s a good guy, despite being a rare “double Jay” fan (Kansas football and Creighton basketball). He definitely enjoys poking at Husker fans to get a reaction. I try to ignore this behavior…but am far from perfect at it.
Ironically, his fake tweet turned out to be somewhat accurate, as we did find out Frost’s fate for 2022.
The Omaha World-Herald publishes an editorial calling for Frost to be retained.
It was a surprise move. It may be one with little precedence – does anybody remember a similar editorial before Bo Pelini was retained for 2014, or when Frank Solich was facing scrutiny in 2002 or 2003?
It’s important to distinguish the difference between the OWH running an editorial and one of their sportswriters making the case in a column. The editorial runs on the main Opinion page, and typically represents the collective opinion of the paper’s editorial staff. In other words, it is different than Tom Shatel saying Frost should get another year.
But what stuck out to me was the lack of factual arguments the OWH used to make its case. Their main argument was (paraphrasing) “nobody wants to win as badly as Scott Frost wants to win” and that changing coaches now would – and I quote – “hamstring recruiting”. Heck, in the first few paragraphs the OWH used “pitiful”, “no signature wins”, “repeated, infuriating mistakes”, and “something essential is missing” to describe the Frost coaching era. Not exactly an overwhelming argument.
The OWH editorial created some fascinating reactions.
On one side, there was the delicious irony of fans who swear the local media are a bunch of “negative nellies” out to destroy the program, suddenly presented with a very prominent platform backing Scott Frost.
Then there was the longtime World-Herald reporter Lee Barfknecht who called the editorial a “journalistic felony”, and claimed that he cancelled his subscription over it. Presumably*, Lee felt that the OWH quickly published the editorial to grease the skids for the Trev Alberts announcement that followed a few hours later.
*I say “presumably” because a) I obviously don’t know what Lee was thinking, and b) I’m still blocked by the old scribe. Lee, if you’re reading: I’m sorry. No hard feelings.
Scott Frost will return for the 2022 season, with every opportunity to keep the job going forward.
I’m not surprised by the decision. I feel it is in line with the will of the majority of fans. The timing, at the start of NU’s second bye week, also makes sense.
Frost will take a $1 million pay cut and lowered his buyout down to $7.5 million for 2022.
I’d be curious to know how these terms were brought up and negotiated. Did Frost bring them to the table? Did Alberts? How big of cuts would each side have agreed to?
Did Trev Alberts punt the biggest decision of his Nebraska tenure?
A case could be made. Trev was hired less than four months ago. He inherited a losing football program led by a native son and national championship winning quarterback who is beloved by a majority of NU fans. Frost has a $20 million buyout for 2021. The economic impact of the pandemic caused NU to lay off staff, dip into its reserve funds, and slowed development of facilities improvements.
Firing Frost now (or at the end of this season) would divide the fan base, alienate boosters, and cost NU millions in buyouts.
By waiting another season, Alberts presumably gives Frost 12 more games to prove he can get the proverbial hump – or prove that he won’t work out as head coach. Meanwhile, NU’s financial situation will undoubtedly improve and Frost’s buyout amount drops significantly. That has to be the A.D. equivalent of booming a kick from your end zone inside your opponent’s 20.
For the record, I believe Trev made his decision doing what he felt was best for 2022, but this decision could be advantageous for the athletic department.
What was Trev Alberts’s primary motivation for giving Frost another year?
Money? Keeping the fan base happy and (relatively) united? Being loyal to a former champion and native son? The hope that changes in staff/responsibilities will turn close losses into wins? Something else?
You can put those in any order you wish. I put them in the order I think they were considered based on my opinions and the Trev Alberts quotes I’ve read this season.
Does Frost deserve another year?
Let’s just say it is a good thing that Frost was born in the 402 area code and had success after transferring back home from Stanford.
In meeting with Alberts, Frost suggested parting with four offensive assistant coaches (Matt Lubick, Greg Austin, Ryan Held, and Mario Verduzco).
First things first: it is never easy to see guys who have toiled and sacrificed get fired – and that especially applies to the two Nebraska alums (Austin and Held) who lost their jobs.
That said, there are few surprises here. The special teams continue to be a disaster, but if the offense was averaging 30 points a game, we’d be talking about what needs to happen for Nebraska to make the Big Ten Championship game next month.
At the midway point of the season, I put together grades for all of NU’s coaches and coordinators. You’ll notice that ones who graded out the worst a month ago are the ones who were fired. Personally, I thought Matt Lubick was a doing a good job with NU’s receivers (seriously, how many drops have they had this year?) but I suspect it would be tough to keep him as a position coach so closely connected to his former coordinator role.
Will there be other changes to the current assistants?
I’m optimistic that outside linebackers coach Mike Dawson – whom I graded highly last month – will remain on the staff. I expect a full-time assistant to be hired to lead/coordinate the perpetual tire fire that is Nebraska’s specialists and return units, removing it from Dawson’s purview.
Beyond that, I could see Sean Beckton – the lone returning assistant on the offensive side – either taking over the wide receivers, or adding them to his duties as tight ends coach.
Can a turnaround happen?
Um… Trev, why don’t you answer this one. As Alberts told the Omaha and Lincoln papers: “There’s not a lot of empirical data out there to suggest this will work, let’s be honest”.
Two of my favorite researchers in the Husker-sphere – Eric (@stewmanji on Twitter) and Dirk Chatelain – each looked at every head coaching tenure since back to the Devaney era to find examples of head coaches who had four straight losing seasons and managed to turn it around at the same school.
As you can read in Dirk’s column, the best and most recent example is Greg Schiano in his first tenure at Rutgers.
Look: It is absolutely possible that Frost could turn things around and make Nebraska perennial Top 25 program again. It could happen.
But it would truly be an unprecedented, never been done before thing.
What will Nebraska’s offense look like in 2022?
I’m guessing the only people who know that answer are Frost and Alberts. Between the talent he has on the roster and the transfer portal, Frost can pick almost any system he wants.
I’m a believer that any offensive system can work anywhere – provided the team has the necessary talent and sufficient coaching. Obviously, using the advantages currently on the roster – young talent on the line, depth at running back, and promising receivers – makes a lot of sense.
At the beginning of the season, I said if Frost was looking for an offensive identity, he should look to the offense he ran in 1997. I think that system would be a good complement to Nebraska’s defense.
How many wins does Frost need to get in 2022? And is that number doable?
It’s too soon to tell what Trev Alberts will be looking for to determine if Frost gets a sixth year. But it seems safe to say that winning record (i.e., 7 wins before the bowl game) is a reasonable expectation.
Here is Nebraska’s current schedule for 2022:
- Northwestern (in Dublin). If we’re looking for seven wins, this could be a must-win right out of the gate with a new offensive staff playing six time zones away from home.
- North Dakota. This is not the FCS power North Dakota State. The only guaranteed win on the schedule.
- Georgia Southern. The Eagles just hired former USC coach Clay Helton
- Oklahoma. The Sooners make their first trip to Lincoln since 2009.
- At Rutgers. Will Greg Schiano 2.0 be further along than Frost’s rebuild?
- Indiana. Remember when Tom Allen was the hottest coach in the Big Ten? The Hoosiers will be looking to bounce back in 2022, and won their last time to Lincoln.
- At Michigan. Can Jim Harbaugh sustain his progress?
- Minnesota. P.J. Fleck has beaten Frost three straight years.
- At Wisconsin. Remember when the Badgers were “scared” to play Nebraska? I guarantee they don’t remember it.
- Purdue. David Bell and George Karlaftis will likely be in the NFL, but the Boilers always play NU tough.
- Illinois. If new coaches make their biggest jump from Year 1 to Year 2, where will Bret Bielema have the Illini next November?
- At Iowa. This seems destined to come down to another Nebraska coach fighting for his job against the Hawkeyes, while the Heroes Trophy (presented by Hy-Vee!!!) lurks in the background.
I can see a path to seven wins, but it is going to require some dramatic improvements. I can’t speak for Alberts, but I’m not going to be very interested in finding the upside in close losses, no matter how highly the opponent is ranked.
Is this 2002 all over again?
Let’s get in the Wayback Machine: In 2002, head coach Frank Solich had a very disappointing 7-7 season, with blowout losses at Penn State, Iowa State, and Kansas State. After the season, Solich announced the retirements of longtime assistants Dan Young and Milt Tenopir, as well as the firings of Craig Bohl, Nelson Barnes, George Darlington, and Dave Gillespie.
In 2003, a revamped staff – led by a relatively unknown outsider named Bo Pelini – went 9-3 in the regular season. The Huskers finished second in the Big XII North but were blown out in their three biggest games (Missouri, Texas, and Kansas State). The Huskers beat Colorado to close out the regular season, but the Athletic Director – a popular hire with ties to the 1990s success – said something about gravitating and mediocrity as Solich was fired.
I’m not saying Scott Frost is Frank Solich 2.0, nor am I saying Trev Alberts’s tenure is going to spiral out of control as he struggles to fill a coaching vacancy. I’m just remembering the last time Nebraska fired multiple assistants before the end of the calendar year.
I’m sure it will go much better this time around.
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