The old cliché is that football is a game of inches. But really, football is a game of opportunities.
There are dozens of opportunities in a game: opportunities to extend or end drives, scoring opportunities, opportunities to flip momentum, or to put a game away. Go deeper and you’ll find countless micro opportunities within every snap: alignment, preparation, recognition, execution, effort, and desire. Every inch is won or lost by being better at the micro opportunities that your opponent.
Over the course of a season, (or, if you prefer, a coach’s tenure) there are a handful of macro, big-picture opportunities. Opportunities to show improvement. Opportunities to reverse a negative trend. Opportunities to make a statement by beating a ranked team.
For the second straight week, Nebraska had a macro opportunity on Saturday. They again went on the road to face a top 20 opponent (#20 Michigan State this time, #3 Oklahoma the week before). Both times, they had the ball in their hands on the final drive with a chance to win. Both times they failed to seize the opportunity. Both times they were let down by mistakes, special teams gaffes, and settling for field goal attempts instead of touchdowns.
But that’s where a lot of the similarities end. Against Oklahoma, there was a sense that Nebraska was hanging around with a superior team. With Michigan State, it felt like the Huskers were the superior team. The loss to the Sooners had a little “moral victory” sweetness to it. The overtime loss to the Spartans tasted bitter, with notes of depression and groin kicks.
In the end, Nebraska’s two biggest opportunities have been wasted. I don’t want to say the Huskers have no shot at the division title before the calendar turns to October….but at 0-2, NU would need to fix several things overnight and get a ton of help.
It is painful to see Frost and Nebraska squander these golden opportunities. I don’t know how many more meaningful opportunities they have left.
Things I believe
That was one of the greatest halves of defensive football you will ever see. The Blackshirts were amazing. They started strong and turned in a stunningly dominating (and let’s be honest, slightly unexpected) performance for the ages.
Just look at the raw numbers:
- 2021 Michigan State (2nd half)
- Opponent rank: 20
- Points: 0
- First Downs: 0
- Total Yards: 14
Midway through the fourth quarter, I realized that I could not come up with a better defensive performance in my 40+ years. I took a quick look at some past Nebraska games against ranked opponents to see if there was something I was forgetting about.
Here are five contenders. Tell me which one(s) were better than what we saw Saturday night:
2009 Oklahoma (2nd half)
- Opponent rank: 20
- Points: 0
- First Downs: 13
- Total Yards: 191
- Comment: Landry Jones moved the ball but threw 4 interceptions in the half, three to Matt O’Hanlon.
2009 Texas (Big XII Championship, 2nd half)
- Opponent rank: 3
- Points: 6
- First Downs: 9
- Total Yards: 81
- Comment: The only contender to score points, but this game is here to appreciate how ridiculously good Ndamukong Suh was at NU.
2011 Michigan State (2nd half)
- Opponent rank: 9
- Points: 0
- First Downs: 6
- Total Yards: 83
- Comment: Kirk Cousins and Le’Veon Bell were no match for Lavonte David and Will Compton.
1999 Texas A&M (1st half)
- Opponent rank: 21
- Points: 0
- First Downs: 3
- Total Yards: 41
- Comment: Mike Brown forced three turnovers (2 INT and a forced fumble) and Kyle Vanden Bosch blocked two field goals. In one half.
2009 Arizona (Holiday Bowl, 1st half)
- Opponent rank: 22
- Points: 0
- First Downs: 1
- Total Yards: 32
- Comment: Future Super Bowl MVP Nick Foles was 4-15 passing for 10 yards and an interception.
Which one was the most dominant? It is a fun debate. I’m leaning toward Saturday’s game because (a) the current Blackshirts aren’t exactly oozing with NFL talent like the 1999 and 2009 defenses, and (b) the current Blackshirts turned in that dominating performance without the benefit of a turnover.
Frost made the right call playing for overtime. After one final stop by the defense, NU got the ball back at their own 20 with 47 seconds left in the game. After a scramble and a sideline completion to Travis Vokolek, Nebraska had 1st and 10 from its own 38 with 27 seconds left and two timeouts. Martinez was sacked for a loss of six, and Frost let the clock run out.
It was the right decision.
Setting aside Nebraska’s woeful track record in “< 1 minute, must score” situations under Frost, I’m not sure what NU could have done. Deep threat Zavier Betts had not played (much? At all?) in the second half. Omar Manning looked shaky after recovering a fourth quarter fumble. The offensive line had just given up its seventh sack. And how close would the offense need to get to give Connor Culp a reasonable chance at a game-winning field goal?
Instead, Frost decided to ride his defense and hope the offense could score from 25 yards out. The catastrophic implosion of that plan gives us plenty of second-guess opportunities, and the chance to dredge up Frost’s old “no fear of failure”* quote.
*Side note: We need to let the “no fear of failure” quote go. I like it as a theory, but I would hope it is blatantly obvious to Nebraska coaches and fans that failure is ALWAYS an option. Until Nebraska can consistently play a game without shooting itself in the foot in the biggest moments, it is okay for the coach to keep the Huskers out of situations where they can do just that.
But imagine the second guessing if Martinez threw his lone interception in regulation leading to a walk-off pick six or a game-winning field goal.
There are many things we can – and will – critique and criticize from this loss. But the decision to avoid forcing things after the sack is not one of them.
The loss is on the offense, not the special teams. Nebraska had a horrifically bad punt which allowed the game to be tied. That was the game, right?
Wrong.
Nebraska had to settle for field goals in two red zone trips. The drive before the fateful punt was a prime opportunity to seal the victory. Get a few first downs, bleed the clock, and make Michigan State burn its remaining timeouts. Instead, the offense went three and out.
Nebraska’s scoring offense against Power 5 teams (19.3 points per game) is simply not good enough. Maybe – maybe! – Nebraska could get away with it if they had NFL talent at punter and place kicker, but that’s still too big of a burden to put on the defense.
Nebraska must score more points.
Things I don’t know
What is going on with the red zone play calling? Counting overtime, Nebraska made five trips into the red zone, scoring touchdowns on two drives. Let’s take a look at the three drives where NU didn’t score a TD:
Drive 1, early 2nd quarter. Nebraska has 1st and goal from the 9. A first down pass to Omar Manning gains one yard. A false start penalty on an offensive lineman (of course) puts NU at 2nd and goal from the 13. The play? A 3-yard run by Brody Belt – his first carry in 673 days. After an incomplete pass to Zavier Betts, Connor Culp kicks a 28-yard field goal.
Drive 2: start of the 3rd quarter. NU has 1st and 10 from the Spartan 11. On first down, Martinez loses a yard trying to make a play. On second down, Sevion Morrison rushes for two yards – his first carry of the day. On third down, Martinez attempts a sideline screen pass to Morrison. The concept was sound – Wyatt Liewer scored on a similar play last year against Purdue – but the execution was poor. Incomplete pass. Field goal.
Drive 3: Overtime. Two passes set up a 3rd and 3. I’d rather not talk about what happened on third down, other than Cam Jurgens hustling to make a tackle 60 yards down field.
I’m at a loss to determine why Frost and Matt Lubick seem to operate out of a completely different playbook in the red zone than they do between the 20s. Why are plays, concepts, and ball carriers emerging for the first time in high-leverage situations? If they are worried about their place kicking, I would expect more of a reliance on what is working, instead of less.
It’s worth noting that on the two touchdown drives, the red zone play calling was: QB run for a touchdown. RB run, RB run, QB run for a touchdown.
Are continued mistakes on the player or the coach? There are several examples where Nebraska players are routinely and repeatedly making the same mistakes or mental errors. Pick your favorite to use as an example.
So whose fault is it? The player who continues to screw up, or the coach who allows it to happen? Chicken or egg? These issues cannot be corrected if we don’t know what to fix.
The coaches are highly paid professionals whose job is to get their players in the right positions with the proper technique and the situational awareness to understand good choices from bad ones. If the coach cannot reach/teach a player to do it correctly, shouldn’t it be his job to find somebody who can?
The players are skilled athletes playing a game. The coaches drill fundamentals throughout the spring and summer and work tirelessly to create game plans that the players can execute. This isn’t basketball where a coach will draw up a play during a timeout. You know your assignment, keys, and responsibilities before you step onto the field.
Yes, 19- and 20-year-old kids make mistakes, but I fall on the side that says it is ultimately on the coaches. One time can be chalked up to nerves, a fundamental breakdown, or trying too hard to make a play. Two times is a pattern. Three (or more) is inexcusable. The coaches are the ones responsible for getting it fixed or finding ways to mitigate the damage. Most of what we see from Nebraska is doing the same thing while hoping for a different result.
Can Scott Frost get it fixed? So if we operate under the belief that the responsibility for Nebraska’s chronic issues are on the coaches – who report up to the head coach – do we think Frost and Company can get over the hump?
The more I think about it, this really is the key variable in assessing Frost’s job stability in Lincoln.
If you think he can fix the enduring issues, I can completely understand why you would think NU is close to a breakthrough, even if that doesn’t fully happen until Year 5.
I know there is a growing chorus of voices who will tell you that If Frost hasn’t been able to get these core issues by now, he will never find the answers. They make a strong case based on stats and results from other coaching staffs who never got the plane off the ground, no matter how long their runway was. I’m not in that camp yet, but there are moments like Saturday where it feels inevitable.
As for me: I liked what I saw early from Frost. After the drive with back-to-back false-start penalties, he gave the two linemen a fiery lecture / ass chewing on the sideline. It’s worth noting that there were no more penalties on the offensive line after that moment.
But as the game wore on, and in his postgame comments, Frost came across as a guy without any answers. He appeared and sounded defeated. He used his “same old movie” analogy. I like the analogy for you and me watching at home. I don’t care for that analogy coming from the one guy who can yell “CUT!” and attempt to edit the script.
5 Things I loved
- Blackshirts. Take away the flea-flicker touchdown (either as an outlier or because of the missed holding call) and Erik Chinander’s defense played one helluva game. Remember those black alternate uniforms NU wore against Indiana in 2019? At the time, it was mentioned that they could be worn yearly. As a uniform classicist, I would prefer the traditional red uniforms at home, but the defense absolutely earned the right to wear the Blackshirt alts against Northwestern.
- Homegrown Blackshirts. There are a ton of defensive guys that deserve recognition, but I want to call out a foursome of in-state guys: Luke Reimer, Nick Henrich, Garrett Nelson, and Ben Stille. They combined for 28 tackles, two sacks, and a pass break up. Reimer is arguably the best player on the defense, and Nelson appears to be the heart and soul. Stille is the veteran anchor of the line, and Henrich is a star on the rise.
- Adrian Martinez. Regardless of your opinions on Martinez’s ability and level of execution, I think we should acknowledge his toughness. He was hit so hard on the first drive that he went to the locker room for x-rays. He came back out and rushed for 65 yards, threw for 251 – completing throws to 9 different receivers – and led four sustained scoring drives. He did all of this while running for his life behind a line that was truly offensive, giving up seven sacks. Martinez is the reason Nebraska had a chance to win this game.
- Damion Daniels, Ty Robinson, and Deontre Thomas. The stat sheet does not accurately reflect how well Nebraska’s defensive line played. The big boys up front put in some work.
- Connor Culp. Let’s give credit where it is due. Culp did his job on Saturday. All four of his kicks were no-doubters. Here’s hoping he’s back on track.
Honorable mention: Zavier Betts, Deontai Williams, JoJo Domann, Austin Allen, Levi Falck, Rahmir Johnson, Logan Smothers, Turner Corcoran (for not getting a false start)
5 Areas for improvement
- Offensive line. Seven sacks allowed. Just 3.8 yards per rush – a number that is padded by Martinez’s 45-yard scramble. False start penalties on (in order) Matt Sichterman, Cam Jurgens, Trent Hixson, and Bryce Benhart. Too many plays ended with a Nebraska player’s legs sticking out of the bottom of a big green pile, while five guys in white jerseys stood and watched.
- Punters. William Przystup and Daniel Cerni had rough, rough days. I will note that Cerni’s one touchback should have been downed inside the 10, but the NU gunner could not get off his block. But as the whole, it was a dreadful performance. If I’m Frost, I have Special Teams Coordinator / Scapegoat Mike Dawson, work on a quick kick package with Martinez for next week.
- Adrian Martinez. With Martinez, you must look at the negative along with his positive. There was the critical interception in overtime, a lost fumble where he held onto the ball too long, and opportunities missed where he overthrew open receivers. Martinez is not the reason NU lost, but we need to acknowledge the bad with the good.
- Kickoffs and returns. With apologies to whomever said it first, Nebraska’s special teams is a never-ending game of Whack-A-Mole. You hammer down a problem, only to have it coming popping back up at the worst possible moment. Only two of Nebraska’s five kickoffs went for touchbacks. Of the kicks that were returned, two went for 41 and 28 yards. On the other side, Nebraska was better about taking touchbacks on their kickoffs – except for a near disaster after the punt return touchdown that was bobbled and only returned to the 18.
- “The Woodshed”. I was surprised by the number of people and media members willing to go all-in on Mel Tucker’s revival of a briefly used nickname for Spartan Stadium. I know college football voices love tough-sounding names (“The Swamp” or “Death Valley” convey more drama than “Ben Hill Griffin Stadium” or “Clemson Memorial Stadium”), but it seems a little soon. Also, for a team that hates to be little brother to the Wolverines, I’m not sure why they would want to be the shed behind the Big House.
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