Will Nebraska ‘bounce back and elevate’ at Purdue? Thoughts ahead of NU’s road test

Nebraska (3-1) is finally taking its talents on the road for the first time all season — changing things up after three straight home night games with an 11 a.m. kegs n’ eggs-esque kick in Purdue’s Ross-Ade Stadium in West Lafayette, Indiana.

Both Nebraska and Purdue (1-2) are coming off losses. Nebraska, of course, lost in overtime to Illinois last week, and Oregon State got the better of Purdue last week, 38-21.

“The great ones, they don’t just bounce back,” Nebraska coach Matt Rhule said Thursday. “They bounce back and elevate.”

Some thoughts ahead of Nebraska’s second Big Ten clash of the season.

Purdue had large crowds for its first two games — 59,488 for a near-sellout against Indiana State and a sellout of 61,441 for Notre Dame.

But that might not translate for this week.

Saturday morning’s forecast is projected to pose some challenges, considering the expected winds are tracking to be sustained at 20 miles per hour with possible gusts of up to 40 miles per hour. Factor in some rain, and I wouldn’t fault people for wanting to watch this one on TV.

“A lot remains to be seen with (what) the weather conditions are gonna be,” Nebraska coach Matt Rhule said. “We’re expecting it to be wet and really windy. But you know how hurricanes are, they can shift paths.”

Huh? Nebraska’s playing at Purdue this weekend, right? A hurricane? In Indiana?

Yup. Well, the expected remnants of one, anyway.

As of Thursday afternoon, the weather conditions will be less than optimal. The National Hurricane Center’s storm track for Hurricane Helene is projecting the storm’s remnants to reach Indiana by Saturday morning.

Of course, it’s called the “Cone of Uncertainty,” for a reason. Storms change trajectories. It’ll just be something to monitor as we get closer to kickoff.

But if it does continue to be ugly, weather-wise…

Let’s disregard last week’s sacks for a minute. (As an aside, I hate how sacks are statistically recorded for the offense in college. They shouldn’t go against the run game. They should count against the team’s passing yards like in the NFL.)

Without those sacks, Nebraska ran the ball 26 times for 107 yards. That’s an average of 4.1 yards per carry. While that’s not horrible, that’s nowhere near where Nebraska needs to be.

With sacks included, Nebraska is only averaging 140.5 yards rushing per game. That ranks 87th out of the 133 FBS teams and 11th out of 18 in the Big Ten.

With that in mind, I expect Nebraska to run the ball significantly more this week.

Purdue’s run defense is statistically abysmal.

The Boilermakers aren’t just bad for a Big Ten team. They’re just bad.

They’ve allowed teams to run for an average of 269 yards per game. That’s the third-worst among all FBS teams. The only two teams worse are Florida Atlantic and Kent State. That’s not great company to keep.

But let’s flip that, too.

Purdue’s offense is a run-heavy squad, averaging 183 yards rushing per game and 6.38 yards per rush.

Even after Nebraska’s lackluster performance in the run game last week defensively, the Blackshirts still rank No. 23 nationally, only allowing 94.2 yards rushing per game.

Will that hold up against junior running back Devin Mockobee, who already has 276 yards rushing this season?

Nebraska had success with him last year, limiting him to only 42 yards. But two years ago? That was a defender’s nightmare. Mockobee, as a freshman, had 30 carries for 178 yards rushing against Nebraska the last time the Huskers played in Ross-Ade.

Sure, Nebraska brought the hammer against UTEP, a Conference USA team with a brand new coach. Sure, Nebraska dismantled Colorado. Sure, Nebraska cruised to beat Northern Iowa. And yeah, Nebraska lost a close one to Illinois in overtime.

But all of those games came at home.

What happens on the road?

“You’re never gonna be a relevant team in the Big Ten if you can’t win on the road,” Rhule said. “You go into hostile environments. You travel. You stay in a small hotel and guys are doubled up. It’s just different, right?”

Nebraska went 1-4 last season away from home, with that lone road win coming against Illinois in Rhule’s debut season.

Win any one of those road losses — the three-point loss at Minnesota, the fumble-prone game at Colorado, the three-point loss at Michigan State, the overtime loss at Wisconsin — and Nebraska’s in a bowl game.

Nebraska’s a double-digit favorite this weekend, but that doesn’t mean anything unless the Huskers execute.