Last week, Nebraska did what it typically does when it’s not playing any real football games – win the bye week. Matt Rhule brought in his defensive coordinator from his time at Baylor and the Carolina Panthers, Phil Snow. Nebraska fans might remember Snow’s work even if they don’t remember his name. Snow was the DC at Arizona State in 1996 – the last time Nebraska football was shut out in a game.
But the more exciting news was made on the offensive side of the ball. Dana Holgorsen was brought in as an offensive consultant but was elevated to offensive coordinator. While the Husker’s offense has improved from year one to year two under Matt Rhule, it’s still been underperforming. Holgorsen could be a spark to get the Huskers to bowl eligibility in 2024 while also auditioning for the offensive coordinator role in 2025.
I’m excited about a change in play-calling to finish the season. Holgorsen had three different quarterbacks (Geno Smith, Clayton Tune, and Case Keenum) start NFL games in 2023, while a former Husker has started an NFL game at quarterback since Bruce Mathison in 1987.
A question I did see from fans is, “Will his offense work in the Big Ten?”
This is a valid question, so I looked at all his offensive statistics from the 19 seasons he was an offensive coordinator or head coach (2020 excluded). I then compared these to offenses across the Big Ten over the same 19 seasons to see which Big Ten offenses most resembled a Holgorsen offense to understand better how he might look for the Huskers in the future. I’ll briefly review the top five most closely similar Big Ten teams to one of his past teams.
Dana’s first season as the Cougars head coach at Houston was difficult. Houston starting quarterback D’Eriq King announced his intention to redshirt four games into the season, paving the way for Clayton Tune to become the starting quarterback.
Tanner Morgan’s first season at Minnesota was an up-and-down season. Both teams struggled to pass the ball, finishing with a completion percentage in the mid-fifties. Both teams ran the ball about 60% of the time. Houston managed to win only four games, while Minnesota managed seven wins.
2011 was Holgorsen’s first year at West Virginia. That year, future NFL quarterback Geno Smith led the Big East in passing touchdowns. The Mountaineers passed for nearly three times as many yards as they rushed for. They finished the season 13th in the nation in scoring offense.
The 2011 Mountaineers’ Big Ten equivalent was the 2007 Purdue Boilermakers. Joe Tiller’s squad was also led by a future NFL quarterback, Curtis Painter, who led the Big Ten in passing touchdowns. Purdue went 8-5 that season and was 24th in scoring.
The Cougars’ offense sputtered in Holgorsen’s most recent season as a head coach. Donovan Smith was a downgrade at the quarterback position from Clayton Tune, who led Houston to an 8-5 record the year before. The Houston offense managed to throw for only 242 yards per game and averaged 5.6 yards per play. Houston finished with a paltry 4-8 record and the nation’s No. 90 scoring offense.
The 2022 Michigan State Spartans are the closest Big Ten team to Holgorsen’s final squad. Despite Payton Thorne returning at quarterback, the Spartans’ offense took a big step back without Kenneth Walker III at running back. Michigan State only managed a 5-7 season with the nation’s 92nd-ranked scoring offense.
The 2016 Mountaineers were one of Holgorsen’s best teams, finishing with a 10-3 record. The offense was balanced, averaging 257 yards per game through the air and 228 yards on the ground. The offense managed 6.4 yards per play while finishing with the 50th-ranked scoring offense at 31.2 points per game.
Coming off a special Rose Bowl season in 2007, the 2008 Fighting Illini were a disappointment. Quarterback Juice Williams led a good offense that threw for 269 yards per game while still rushing for 170 yards (Williams was the team’s leading rusher). The Illini had the nation’s 40th-ranked scoring offense, managing 28.7 points per game. The offense “worked” for Illinois; however, a middle-of-the-pack defense held them to only a 5-7 record.
The 2021 Spartans had a big year-two jump under head coach Mel Tucker. Quarterback Payton Thorne threw for an impressive 3200 yards while running back Kenneth Walker III rushed for 1,600 yards on his way to finish sixth in the Heisman voting. The Spartans finished with an 11-2 record with the nation’s 39th-ranked scoring defense.
One pattern emerges with Holgorsen’s teams—he can elevate good talent to greatness but seems to struggle with below-average players. This is especially true at quarterback. Without a good quarterback, his team plays like some bottom-of-the-pack teams in the Big Ten. If Nebraska can recruit well, Holgorsen’s offense can work in the Big Ten.
This is an excellent move for Nebraska, as it already has its starting quarterback in place for the next few years. He will be able to hit the ground running with Dylan Raiola, much like he did in Houston (as offensive coordinator) with Case Keenum, Oklahoma State with Brandon Weeden, and West Virginia with Geno Smith. Nebraska has the NIL resources to bring in talented players. Given a talented group of players, Dana Holgorsen could bring a top-10 offense back to Lincoln.
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