What are Nebraska’s chances in the Men’s Tournament? A look at historic trends.

As Nebraska approaches the tournament, we all know the two narratives:

1. Can they finally win a tournament game?
2. Can they stick it to Trev Alberts/Texas A&M?

I am optimistic on the second one. I am even more optimistic on the first. And my reasoning is based purely on statistics… and that statistic has to do with Nebraska's excellent balance of offense and defense.

Using Ken Pomeroy's numbers (KenPom), Nebraska ranks as the following:

Adjusted Offense: 36th

Adjusted Defense: 30th

Being top 36 in both offense and defense is actually a pretty small fraternity this year, as just 9 other teams meet that description… those teams are: UConn (#1), Houston (#1), Purdue (#1), Arizona #(2), Tennessee (#2), Marquette (#2), Creighton (#3), Duke (#4) and Auburn (#5).

Nebraska being an 8 seed makes them the lowest seed to meet this description since Florida Atlantic last year (#9) and North Carolina the year prior (#8). (Relevant Side Note: both of those teams made the Final Four.)

That should be very encouraging. Even more encouraging is how those teams have fared in the tournament over recent years. Dating back to 2016, there have been just 96 teams to be in the top 36 in both offense and defense. Here's the breakdown of how far those teams made it in the tournament:

Made it to the Round of 32: 84.4%.

Sweet Sixteen: 59.4%

Elite Eight: 36.5%

Final Four: 20.8%

Championship Game: 13.5%

National Champions: 7.3%

(Helpful hint for your bracket, since 2002, all but one champion — 2014 UConn– has been in the top 36 in both offense and defense, so it's best to pick one of those 10 schools this year.)

All of this is to say: the trends tell us Nebraska's chances are pretty good to win at least one game.