Weekly elo update

Weekly update to the elo post from last week: https://www.reddit.com/r/Huskers/comments/1fxosiw/nebraska_and_matt_rhule_elo_ratings_what_to_expect/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web3x&utm_name=web3xcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button

 Let’s take a quick look at how the teams from the first half of our schedule faired over the weekend. UTEP lost to Western Kentucky moving them to 0-6 on the year, and down to 1137 elo. Colorado lost to Kstate moving them to 4-2, however you might call this a quality loss as it actually moved them up 11 elo from 1479 to 1490. Illinois beat Purdue however not convincingly enough as they lost 10elo from 1551 to 1541 even though they are now 5-1 on the year like us. Purdue moved to 1-5 and sits at 1224 elo.

Collectively our first half of the year opponents are 14-18 (don’t count Northern Iowa’s games against FCS or lower schools)

https://preview.redd.it/yjkkz97l6lud1.png?width=589&format=png&auto=webp&s=3c339ddca07ce175e5dd5a5373e230c62c46c851

On the flip side our second half of the year opponents are 23-13 with a decent volume of the losses coming from UCLA.

Indiana won the bye week moving up 2 places in both the Coaches and AP polls but stayed at the same elo of 1648. Ohio State had a very close loss to Oregon, which dropped them 4 elo down to 2076. UCLA lost to Minnesota unconvincingly which dropped them a single point to 1452. USC lost to PSU and they too gained elo moving from 1759 to 1763. Wisconsin and Iowa both won this week which moved Wisconsin to 1729 and Iowa to 1683 making them both leapfrog Indiana in terms of elo.

https://preview.redd.it/1dzxjavl6lud1.png?width=956&format=png&auto=webp&s=eedea035685df97d3f6e2276b9b8fa6c3b182a4a

Where do we stand? Well as I keep arguing with people on the subreddit, we likely won’t be favored in any remaining games but UCLA if we stick to the expected outcomes. After this weekend, Indiana even though 6-0 and ranked 16^th is the lowest elo team left on our schedule currently after UCLA. They are also within ~50ish points which if you read the Wiki link on elo would tell you that the game is only slightly favored toward Indiana and still gives us a roughly 42.7% chance of winning. This could of course all change if we show that we can beat a good Indiana team on the road we will likely move considerably closer to Iowa and Wiscy.

Edit: I wanted to put in a quick so what. This post isn't meant to say we will only go 6-6, but it is meant to say if we do go 6-6 people should actually be content. I think expectations are a bit high and emotions following suit and people should recognize that 6-6 means we took care of business in every game minus Illinois. Any wins from the back half of the schedule outside of UCLA should be celebrated, they are good wins even if the process to gets there still looks ugly or isn't convincing.