There are a lot of advanced analytics in this modern era of football, I think we need to look at the effect that ESPN’s College Gameday on the outcome of Nebraska games in the Scott Frost Era. This may be the most important predictor that we can use for these final 4 games.
###Introduction
First, I need to show some of the designations I am using for this. First off, I am using the NCAA’s official list and results as tallied [here](https://www.ncaa.com/news/football/article/college-gameday-locations-all-time-appearances-most-times-hosting). For my region designations of where College Gameday took place, we will be using the US Census designations and sub-regions, as noted [here](https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/f/f1/Census_Regions_and_Division_of_the_United_States.svg/1920px-Census_Regions_and_Division_of_the_United_States.svg.png). Note that there was one game in this analysis, November 14th, 2020 vs. Penn State, where College Gameday attended no game and was instead at The Masters.
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###Looking Forward
First, we need to look the upcoming game as this is a forward looking analysis before we know the outcomes. So here is the break down below:
The first thing to examine is the rankings of the two teams. The categories are as follows: Differential of 5 or less, Between 6 and 10, More than 10 or Featuring an Unranked Team/FCS. Tighter ranked games are better for Nebraska.
Ratings Diff | Win | Loss | Win %
—|:—:|:—-:|:—-:
<=5 | 8 | 9| **0.471**
6-10 | 3| 5| 0.375
11=< | 3 | 6| 0.333
NR/FCS | 1 | 5 | 0.167
Next, we want to look at the region in which the game takes place. These regions are the major divisions of the map above. Southern and Western games are better for Nebraska:
Region | Win | Loss | Win %
—|:—:|:—-:|:—-:
Midwest | 3 | 8 | 0.273
Northwest | 1 | 3 | 0.250
South | 10 | 13 | **0.435**
West | 1 | 1 | **0.500**
Now let’s also examine the sub-regions of that map. Games taking place along the Eastern or Western seaboard are best for Nebraska:
Sub-Region | Win | Loss | Win %
—|:—:|:—-:|:—-:
East North Central | 1 | 3 | 0.250
East South Central | 0 | 2 | 0.000
Middle Atlantic | 0 | 3 | 0.000
New England | 1 | 0 | **1.000**
Pacific | 1 | 1 | **0.500**
South Atlantic | 9 | 2 | **0.818**
West North Central | 2 | 5 | 0.286
West South Central | 1 | 9 | 0.100
A Breakdown by Home Team Conference. What we really want is the ACC, Pac-12 or SEC as the home team:
Home Team Conf. | Win | Loss | Win %
—|:—:|:—-:|:—-:
ACC | 3 | 0 | **1.000**
Big Ten | 1 | 7 | 0.125
Big XII | 2 | 6 | 0.250
Pac-12 | 1 | 1 | **0.500**
SEC | 5 | 5 | **0.500**
G5 | 2 | 4 | 0.333
Ind. | 0 | 2 | 0.000
No Game | 1 | 0 | **1.000**
Away Team Conference. Pac-12 or Notre Dame are best for Nebraska:
Away Team Conf. | Win | Loss | Win %
—|:—:|:—-:|:—-:
ACC | 1 | 2 | 0.333
Big Ten | 3 | 8 | 0.273
Big XII | 0 | 4 | 0.000
Pac-12 | 2 | 1 | **0.667**
SEC | 4 | 6 | 0.400
G5 | 2 | 4 | 0.333
Ind. | 2 | 0 | **1.000**
No Game | 1 | 0 | **1.000**
So what can we take away from the looking forward games? If this week’s game features a ratings difference of less than 5 (17 games), Nebraska is in good territory. It is also even better if the game is in the South (23 games) or the West (2 games), and even better if the game is taking place in the South Atlantic (11 games), Pacific (2 games) or New England (1 game) sub-regions. If the ACC is the home team? Nebraska is guaranteed to win. If they are playing against a Pac-12 or Independent team, Nebraska is in a very good place. **Notre Dame is the key factor for Gameday predictions. When ND is home, it is a guaranteed loss. When they are the away team, Nebraska is guaranteed a win.**
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###Looking at Last Week’s Game
It may also be important to look at the previous week’s game to determine what will happen to Nebraska. So let’s look at the previous week’s games. First, we will examine if the home or away team won, or if it was a neutral site game. Nebraska is best when Away teams win the week before:
Site Winner | Win | Loss | Win %
—|:—:|:—-:|:—-:
Home | 6 | 12 | 0.333
Away | 6 | 8 | **0.429**
Neutral | 3 | 5 | 0.375
Now for ratings differential. The best is if there is an unranked or FCS team playing the week prior:
Ratings Diff | Win | Loss | Win %
—|:—:|:—-:|:—-:
<=5 | 6 | 12 | 0.333
6-10 | 2 | 5 | 0.286
11=< | 3 | 6 | 0.333
NR/FCS | 4 | 2 | **0.667**
If last week’s game took place in the Midwest, Northeast or the West, it’s a boon for Nebraska:
Region | Win | Loss | Win %
—|:—:|:—-:|:—-:
Midwest | 6 | 5 | **0.545**
Northwest | 2 | 2 | **0.500**
South | 6 | 17 | 0.261
West | 1 | 1 | **0.500**
While the Eastern Seaboard is a boon if it is taking place the same week, if last week’s game took place there, its bad juju. We want Midwestern or Deep South games the week before:
Sub-Region | Win | Loss | Win %
—|:—:|:—-:|:—-:
East North Central | 3 | 1 | **0.750**
East South Central | 1 | 1 | **0.500**
Middle Atlantic | 1 | 2 | 0.333
New England | 1 | 0 | **1.000**
Pacific | 1 | 1 | **0.500**
South Atlantic | 2 | 9 | 0.182
West North Central | 3 | 4 | **0.429**
West South Central | 3 | 7 | 0.300
For the previous week’s Home Team, The ACC and Pac-12 are still a positive, though Notre Dame flips camps. A home SEC team the week before is now a bad omen:
Home Team Conf. | Win | Loss | Win %
—|:—:|:—-:|:—-:
ACC | 2 | 1 | **0.667**
Big Ten | 3 | 5 | 0.375
Big XII | 3 | 5 | 0.375
Pac-12 | 1 | 1 | **0.500**
SEC | 2 | 8 | 0.200
G5 | 2 | 4 | 0.333
Ind. | 2 | 0 | **1.000**
No Game | 0 | 1 | 0.000
For the prior week’s away team, Notre Dame on the road is a death knell. ACC, Big Ten and SEC away teams bear better fortunes:
Away Team Conf. | Win | Loss | Win %
—|:—:|:—-:|:—-:
ACC | 2 | 1 | **0.667**
Big Ten | 5 | 6 | **0.455**
Big XII | 1 | 3 | 0.250
Pac-12 | 1 | 2 | 0.333
SEC | 4 | 6 | **0.400**
G5 | 2 | 4 | 0.333
Ind. | 0 | 2 | 0.000
No Game | 0 | 1 | 0.000
Nebraska does best when last week’s game featured an Away winner, an Unranked/FCS team and was played anywhere but the South. Whereas the South Atlantic was a boon being played in the same week, the prior week’s game being in that same region is a bad omen. Notre Dame flips the script on us: if they were home, Nebraska wins; if they were away, Nebraska loses.
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#What Does This Tell US About This Week
Looking ahead to this week’s Michigan @ Michigan State game. Rating differential is the only clear positive for a Nebraska win.
Category | Pick | Win %
—|:—:|:—-:
Ranking Diff | <=5 | **0.471**
Region | Midwest | 0.273
Sub-Region | E N Cent | 0.250
Home Conf | Big Ten | 0.125
Away Conf | Big Ten | 0.273
Averages | | 0.278
Now last week’s game gives a much more positive insight for the Nebraska game this week, away team Oregon took down unranked UCLA, all of which are positive. The only negative drag on the expected win percentage is that the away team was from the Pac-12.
Category | Pick | Win %
—|:—:|:—-:
H/A/N | Away | **0.429**
Ranking Diff | NR | **0.667**
Region | West | **0.500**
Sub-Region | Pacific | **0.500**
Home Conf | Pac-12 | **0.500**
Away Conf | Pac-12 | 0.333
Averages | | **0.488**
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###What Does This Tell Us?
TLDR: Honestly probably nothing, correlation =/= causation. Fun stupid exercise though.
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