Three & Out: 2023 tight ends, gauging the “Ts”, this season swing game

This is HuskerOnline.com’s feature in which recruiting analysts Mike Matya and Bryan Munson give their weekly takes on topical issues concerning Nebraska football, baseball and recruiting.

Today in our next installment of “Three and Out” we hit on 2023 four-star tight ends, gauging the “Ts”, and this season swing game.

Maybe something to keep an eye on for the Class of 2023 is the high number of four-star tight ends. There are 17 of them this year and that is a number that really stood out to me as I fanned through the entire list recently. What’s more is that there are 16 tight ends in the R250 right now for the 2023 class.

The number of four-star tight ends seemed like it was a little high and I wasn’t sure if that was a particularly high number or right about average, to be honest. Going back to 2002 the highest number of tight ends recognized as four-star recruits is 22 and that was in the 2002 class. There were 20 in 20018 and last year there were 19.

The average is 13 which means that 2023 is a better than average year. 17 is the fourth highest total (tied with the 2019 class) in the past 20 years for four-star tight ends.

Obviously, Nebraska already has one of those players in the boat — Ben Brahmer. Last week what stood out to me was the number of R250 tight ends in the 500-mile radius.

There were five tight ends in that radius. The Huskers have offered four of those players:

Of note, Nebraska also offered Jaden Hamm from Eudora, KS, who is a three-star tight end. Hamm committed to Arkansas in August after having visited Nebraska twice in April and May. Nebraska has offered eight tight ends in the 2023 class in total, indicating that they will take more than one at that position.

If that is the plan, it’s definitely a good year to be in the market based on the quantity and the quality at the tight end position in the 2023 class.

– Bryan Munson

It’s finally game week and I’ve been considering what my expectations are for the season opener and throughout the remaining games this year.

I am not expecting an undefeated season, nor am I expecting only three or four wins. But there’s a lot of possibilities in between those two extremes.

In addition to “scoreboard” and the win-loss record, these “T” categories are what I’m going to be paying the most attention to as we determine if Nebraska is making tangible progress on the field in 2021.

Training

After the dislocation of the COVID season last year, nearly the entire Cornhusker football roster got to go through winter conditioning, spring drills, summer lifting and fall camp under the guidance and direction of Strength and Conditioning coach Zach Duval and Director of Performance Nutrition Dave Ellis, and their respective staffs.

Duval and Ellis are two of the best in the business in their fields and, judging by the photos and videos coming out of camp, their impact is finally starting to be fully felt in the program. This looks like a legitimate Big Ten football team on the hoof, now they have to show up and consistently play like one.

Trenches

We all know by now this is a big-boy conference, and you are going nowhere without Big Ten caliber linemen on both sides of the trenches. NU finally has at least a quality two-deep on both their offensive and defensive lines. Some of that talent is still relatively young, but they need to grow up and step up fast.

I will be looking to see if Nebraska is able to establish a consistent running game this year utilizing primarily their running backs, and taking most of the physical pounding off of Adrian Martinez’s body. The Cornhuskers should go 3-5 deep at running back, so it’s time to let them eat.

Controlling the line of scrimmage will also mean keeping your quarterback clean in the pocket and giving him time to go through his route progressions; while on defense making the opponents’ signal-callers uncomfortable with pressure, hurries and sacks.

Toughness and tackling

Will this finally be the season Nebraska starts playing with an edge and some swagger again? Will they let their physical and clean play on the field do their talking for them?

Husker fans are sick and tired of seeing their team being physically pushed around. Especially by teams like Illinois, which has physically beaten up the Huskers a couple of times since Scott Frost took over in Lincoln.

NU fans long for the days of Nebraska hitting their opponents in the mouth early and often, and seeing the toll of that physical dominance make the difference in the fourth quarter of games.

Turnovers

Let’s be frank, Adrian Martinez has been a turnover machine as Nebraska’s starting quarterback and it has to stop this season. He needs to take better care of the ball at all times or the Huskers will not have a legitimate shot at a breakout season, or even a bowl game.

Last season alone, Nebraska was -11 in turnover ratio, which was No. 123 in the country, and only ahead of Maryland in the conference. And that horrible turnover disparity was after playing ONLY EIGHT games.

Throwing vertical

Stacking the box against Nebraska’s offense has become the norm in the Big Ten conference, as well as in nonconference games. The only way for that to stop is for teams to respect your vertical passing threat. Even if you don’t complete a long pass on any particular play, it serves to stretch and stress the defense.

This statistic floored me when I read it: Adrian Martinez only threw four touchdown passes all of last season. Four! He only played in seven of the eight games, and he threw four touchdown passes and had three interceptions.

Even though he ranked 4th in the country in completion percentage, he was rated 99th in yards per completion. That’s quite the disparity, and means he was mostly dinking and dunking the ball horizontally or close to the line of scrimmage.

The Huskers have the speed and playmaking ability at receiver and tight end to realistically take the top off of defenses by taking several shots down the field vertically each game — with the receivers on the edge and the tight ends down the seams.

Tenacity

There’s going to be adversity throughout this football season, and in most every game, but the good teams are always able to push through that and keep fighting until the momentum turns in their favor. Good teams make their own breaks and have players who make plays at crucial points in the games.

They’re not only physically, but mentally tough. You know it when you see it. And we haven’t seen it in several seasons where Nebraska football is concerned. Hopefully, we will this year.

– Mike Matya

Either way you slice it, my prediction for this year’s team for Nebraska is optimistic. It’s always a challenge to show improvement in the win-loss column as an athletic program, but after going 3-5 last year it does make it easier to do.

I go back and forth with my prediction on the season. I do believe that Nebraska wins this weekend and starts out the season 3-0. But then there is Norman and then the game that I really have circled for Nebraska on the schedule: Michigan State.

Why Michigan State? It’s absolutely the swing game for this year’s team. If Nebraska loses in Norman, it could come down to margin and how much of an identity crisis it creates for Nebraska if they struggle. Where Nebraska will have to test themselves the next time after Oklahoma is on the road for their second Big Ten game in East Lansing.

And it’s not the Spartans I am worried about, even though it seems every time Nebraska and old Sparty face off it’s a dogfight. Typically, the last team with the football is the victor in that game. If that game goes wrong for Nebraska, they head into a nasty remaining conference schedule.

That’s why Michigan State is the big swing game of the season. If Nebraska makes it to 4-1, then I could conceivably go as high as 8-4 (6-3) for them on the season. If the Huskers are 3-2 (or worse) to start their season, the lowside of my prediction is 5-7 (3-6).

My confident picks straight up for wins: Illinois, Fordham, Buffalo, Michigan State (here it’s make or break), Northwestern and Purdue

I never bet against the Huskers, but if I had to: Oklahoma and Ohio State

The Huskers should split the rest if they start 4-1: Minnesota, Michigan, Wisconsin and Iowa

So there it is, 8-4 or 5-7. I really can’t remember a year where there was as recognizable of a swing game for Nebraska as this year as Michigan State appears to be. It’s a game that could cause a tailspin to the season or get Nebraska back on the right path headed into the teeth of their conference schedule.

– Bryan Munson