The Season Is Half Over. Will Nebraska Football Find Three More Wins?

The 2024 college football season has hit the halfway point and Nebraska is coming out of a much-needed bye week sitting at 5-1, re-entering the coaches poll at No. 25.

The defense seems to have gotten its mojo back after back-to-back subpar outings against Northern Iowa and Illinois. There was too much freelancing and leaky yardage in those games, but the Blackshirts bounced back in a big way against Purdue and Rutgers.

Midway through the season, the defense is 7th nationally in scoring defense (11.3), 13th in total defense (272.5), t-6th in yards allowed per play (4.37), 7th in rush defense (84.2), t-4th in yards allowed per carry (2.70) and 24th in pass efficiency defense.

The Huskers have 20 sacks and 42 tackles for loss, which is t-7th and t-18th nationally — both of which lead the Big Ten.

The defense has snagged seven interceptions, which is tied for 19th nationally and third in the Big Ten. They’ve been outstanding at limiting big plays, giving up just three of 30 yards or more, which is tied for the lowest number in the FBS. They are also the only defense in the country that hasn’t allowed a rushing touchdown this season.

I really like the defensive think tank that’s at Nebraska right now. Tony White is one of the best defensive coordinators in the country and secondary coach John Butler should probably be the defensive coordinator for the Buffalo Bills right now. I think Terrance Knighton will get overtures to coach D-line in the NFL this offseason and will need to be given a raise to keep him in Lincoln. I also wouldn’t be surprised to see linebackers coach Rob Dvoracek start to get vetted by some Group of Five programs to be a coordinator soon.

The Blackshirts are hitting their stride at just the right time. They’ll square off against the best offenses in the Big Ten in back-to-back road games beginning Saturday against undefeated Indiana — which is also coming off a bye.

The Huskers follow that up with a gigantic challenge against No. 4 Ohio State on Oct. 26, when the Buckeyes will be coming off their own bye week after losing a nail-biter to No. 2 Oregon 32-31 in Eugene.

The Hoosier offense is 2nd nationally in scoring (47.5), 4th in total offense (515.7) and 5th in yards per play (7.62). The Buckeyes are 6th in scoring (43.5), 6th in total offense (503) and 6th in yards per play (7.53). Buckle up.

When Nebraska takes on Indiana this Saturday, Tommi Hill will be a month removed from the plantar fascia injury he suffered against Illinois. Will he be on the field in Bloomington? If and when he does return, I don’t see how coaches can take Ceyair Wright out of the starting lineup. Not only has he been Nebraska’s best corner since stepping in for Hill, he’s one of the highest-rated cornerbacks in the entire Big Ten according to Pro Football Focus.

Marques Buford had his worst game against Rutgers, but he’s been solid all season. In order to put their best five on the field, I think they need to slide Buford back to field safety and move Malcolm Hartzog to the bench.

Hartzog has a lot of savvy, but his size is a pretty big detriment. Outside of the Rutgers game, he’s been the guy every team has tried to pick on in coverage and he’s the lowest-graded starting defensive back.

He’s highly respected by his teammates — evident by being voted a single-digit recipient — but I think it’s a move that needs to be made. Head coach Matt Rhule has fostered a culture of competition and transparency and Hartzog has the character to take the demotion in stride.

Turnovers were a huge point of emphasis this offseason. Nebraska had 13 at this point a year ago on its way to an FBS-worst 31. The Huskers were dead last in turnover margin last year at -17, but halfway through the season have done a 180 and are currently +6, which is tied for 15th nationally. The defense has forced 10 turnovers and the offense has committed only four.

Dante Dowdell lost a fumble in the season opener against UTEP, but since then, the offense has three total fumbles and has recovered all of them. Last year they had 31 fumbles and lost 15.

The current total could be even lower considering two of Dylan Raiola’s interceptions came on 50/50 balls where the defender ripped the ball away from the receiver. On his third, Rutgers showed different coverage looks pre- and post-snap. Raiola had to take his eyes off the defense for a split second to catch a high snap, which may have affected him recognizing the shift in coverage.

While the defense seems to be finding its groove, the offense is coming off its worst game as the team heads into a daunting back half of the schedule.

Dylan Raiola has been lights out this season — especially for a true freshman. At the midway point he’s 113-of-169 passing (66.9 percent) with 1,358 yards, nine touchdowns and three interceptions.

His only off game came last week against Rutgers, who threw a lot of NFL concepts at him. That tape is going to be heavily dissected by future opponents, but you can bet nobody scrutinized it more than Raiola himself.

Nebraska’s QB had a week to self-evaluate and take stock of the first half of the season. He has an extremely high football IQ and an unbelievable work ethic. He’ll build off what he’s done well — and more importantly, assess where he can improve moving forward. He’ll be a better QB because of the Rutgers game and what he’ll learn from it.

In football, there’s a first-year plateau that players typically hit. In the NFL it’s referred to as the rookie wall, and it usually comes during the last quarter of the season. In college, freshmen who burst onto the scene oftentimes level out as the season becomes a grind and the calendar flips to November. Not only does the physicality begin to take its toll, but coaches have more tape in which to prepare against them. Can Raiola stay ahead of the curve?

If there’s an area of his game I would like to see some tweaks, it would be with him using his legs a bit more. I’m not suggesting they use him regularly as a runner in the RPO game, nothing like that, but in instances where he could tuck the ball and take off for a chunk play, I think he should look to do that a bit more. There’s nothing more demoralizing to a defense than having an elite passer scamper for a first down when they have receivers bottled up.

There have been times where he’s thrown on the run and either had an incompletion or the receiver was stopped short where he probably could have gotten the first down with his legs. Is that by the coaches’ design?

Remember back to the opening drive against Colorado. Raiola scrambled for 13 yards on a 3rd and 10 and took a pretty good shot from Cam’Ron Silmon-Craig at the end of the run. Did that spook coaches a bit?

Taking into account the O-line is playing with its No. 3 left tackle and backup right guard, the run game just isn’t where it needs to be. The Huskers have just four rushes of 20-plus yards on the season. Nebraska is currently 90th nationally (13th in the Big Ten) in rushing yards per game (136.67) and t-88th (t-12th in the Big Ten) in average per carry (3.89). This offense is built to be in the top third of the conference in those categories, not the bottom third.

I’m not sure the run game can get much better, either. It might just be what it is at this point with this group. Projecting Years 2 and 3 with Raiola under center, however, for this offense to maximize its potential with a future NFL QB directing it, they’ll need a legit 1,000-yard workhorse at tailback and need to consistently rush for 180+ yards per game as a team.

The lack of an effective run game is putting the team behind schedule on too many drives and having a trickle-down effect on the offense as a whole.

Offensive coordinator Marcus Satterfield’s unit needs to be more consistent and keep its foot on the gas when having success. They particularly need to find a way to get into a rhythm in the second half. The Huskers have scored 110 points in the first half (18.3 avg.) and just 58 after intermission (9.7 avg.). They’ve gone scoreless twice this season in second halves against Colorado and Rutgers. They also put up a goose egg in the first half of the Purdue game.

If Nebraska wants to compete with the teams left on its schedule, the Huskers will need to start putting together four quarters on offense.

Which brings me to the biggest disappointment on the team. Special teams. I highlighted this unit after the nonconference slate, and they’ve only gotten worse.

Matt Rhule has talked about the stages a team reaches during its ascension. They go from being a team that eliminates losing football, to a team that plays winning football, and become a team that plays championship football.

The defense is already at a championship level. The offense, for the most part, is playing winning football. Special teams are what will keep this team from reaching its potential, and Rhule will have a big decision to make at the end of the season.

The first six games have included unreliable kicking — Tristan Alvano and John Hohl are a combined 4-of-9 on field goals with a long of just 31. It’s featured leaky return coverage — Nebraska ranks 109th in allowed punt return average (11.82) and 84th in allowed kickoff return average (20.69).

Blown assignments, bad snaps and poor blocking have led to three blocked punts and two blocked field goals.

Nebraska is 96th nationally in punt return average (5.78) and 77th in kick return average (19.22).

The lone bright spot has been Brian Buschini, who is averaging a career-best 47.6 yards per punt — 7th nationally — and is pinning opponents inside the 20-yard line 44.4% of the time. But even that comes with an asterisk. His 40.1-yard net is a sobering t-75th nationally.

The Huskers mostly survived its special teams deficiencies during the first half of the season, but the outlook is so bad that it’s unrealistic to expect their luck to continue against the teams coming up.

At this point, hoping for a net-zero with special teams the rest of the way would be a best-case scenario. I don’t foresee that happening, unfortunately.

This coming Saturday, Nebraska will have another chance at a statement win when the Huskers take on the No. 16 Hoosiers. FOX will bring its Big Noon Kickoff tailgate show to Bloomington, providing a spotlight on the Husker program and the opportunity to turn some heads nationally with a win.

Nebraska has lost 25 straight games to teams ranked in the Associated Press Top 25, a streak that dates back to a 23-17 loss at Wisconsin in 2016.

With six regular-season games remaining, outside of Ohio State (probable loss) and UCLA (probable win), the Huskers are facing four virtual coin-flip games against Indiana, USC, Wisconsin and Iowa. Four of their remaining games are on the road, where the Huskers have a dismal 9-26 record during the current seven-year bowl drought — including a 1-4 mark last season. Can the Huskers go .500 down the stretch?

The margins are going to be extremely tight with everyone left on the schedule, save possibly for the Bruins. The program has made tangible growth in every area outside of special teams, which were also bad last year. Splitting the remaining six games would signal growth for the program and maintain the upward trajectory it has built into next offseason.

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