THE 24 HOUR RULE: The 2024 Blackshirts – What’s Our Level of Concern? Nebraska Huskers Purdue Matt Rhule Tony White

In the FX/Hulu series, The Old Man, it is believed the title character isn’t Jeff Bridges’ character, nor that of the other two “old men” in the show, but rather one who is the subject of a story Bridges tells Amy Brenneman’s character while cooking a meal for her, one which had been recounted to him years previous:

“He (the man who taught him to cook) told me this story that he was told as a young boy about this wise old man and his garden. This, uh…this wise old man, he never spoke. And, uh, it wasn’t because he couldn’t or because he had nothing to say. It was because he believed that language deceived. That by its very nature, it clouded the truth, so it made the world harder to know.

And, uh, this… this wise old man, he believed that the truth… the truth lived only in silence. Communicated by other means. That the food he prepared from his garden, that conveyed, you know, his affection, his gratitude or his indifference… far better than any words could convey. And it was said that this wise old man…

He could change minds in that way. He could soften the hardest of hearts… without ever saying… one word.”

(It goes without saying if you’re not watching The Old Man, I highly recommend it. Great combo of story, action and acting which is simply mesmerizing at times.)

So it’s a great little story for a few reasons:

• It lets us know who The Old Man is.
• There’s the contradiction of him verbally using a story of an old man who communicates through silence because of its honesty in oder to deceive/convince Brenneman’s character to do something he wants.
• And just because it’s the way my mind functions all too often, I realized it’s really a pretty great way to define what happens when sports intuition turns into sports arguments.

Now, I’m not talking about lower hanging fruit like constantly redlining on subjects such as “Run the DAMN BALL!” or “NIL is ruining THE GAME!”.

I’m talking about watching games, noticing changes over time and trying work out both in your mind and talking it over with like-minded folk as to what is going here, what has changed, if anything, and, on the negative side, determining the cracks are the kind which can be repaired with caulk or is something wrong with the foundation?

But as you discuss this, are you really trying to find the root of the problem or have you already determined your answer and are using your words to convince others you’re correct instead of driving together to figure out what’s going on? And are you even aware you’re doing that?

So anyway to finish this philosophical rant fueled by a TV show, what follows is my best attempt to convey what I’m seeing and feeling, but warning you I might unconsciously be full of shit and trying to convince you I’m right. Which is very messed up since I’m not sure where I land yet. Seven hells.

Anyway, football and shit. The defense has a few issues.

The Lead-Up

The 2024 Blackshirts appeared to be picking up where they left of in 2023 by reeling off three straight convincing wins against UTEP, Colorado and Northern Iowa, three fairly equally weak teams. Yes, the national media’s Deion obsession led to overblown accolades for the win over the Buffy’s, but it was pretty obvious their offensive line was…not good.

The Buffs have won two in a row since, however one was against Colorado State and the other against Baylor required a touch of luck to put it generously.

The warning bells started ringing against Northern Iowa. While the Panthers didn’t possess any playmakers to truly threaten, they did have some big boys up front who managed to keep the Panthers on the field for long stretches, most notably a 16-play, 10-plus minute drive on their opening possession. As a matter of fact, the Huskers wouldn’t get their first three and out until the 4th quarter.

The yardage didn’t raise eyebrows – despite an approximately 38-21 minutes advantage in time of possession, the Panthers gained only 301 yards (compared to 205 and 260 for UTEP and CU).

The Huskers, meanwhile, drove easily on each 1st half possession for a 21-3 lead. The only problem was getting the ball in their hands. Due to the Panthers holding the ball for 20 minutes, Raiola and the offense only got four possessions in the first half.

The Illinois Game

Going into the Illini-Huskers match-up, the talk centered on the two defenses. Through three games, both were holding opponents under 300 yards and 10 ppg. Nebraska’s strength was their front stuffing the run to the tune of 70 ypg. Illinois touted their cover corners as some of the finest around.

Neither held up too well.

Raiola completed close to 68% of his passes for 3 TD’s and one dubious reversal which turned a 4th to an interception. His 297 passing yards were the most thus far against the Illini and his miss to a wide-open Lindenmeyer was not at all due their defensive backfield.

Photo by Steven Branscombe/Getty Images

And while the Huskers held the their rushing game mostly in check through three quarters, Illinois went to ground in the 4th quarter and consistently opened holes in the middle to the tune of 90 rushing yards.

The Illini would not get a 3 and out until around 10:30 remaining in regulation and the Huskers would not get one all night, the second consecutive game lacking in that department. (And before we extol the virtues of big Iowa farm-boys being underrated, UNI followed up the Huskers game getting blown out 36-7 by mighty Hawai’i.)

Both defenses came up short in their strengths. Illinois – who was playing only 1-deep and stacking the box – found the confidence in their defensive backfield misplaced as Raiola mostly picked them apart. The Huskers after being picked apart themselves some through the air gave up 166 yards rushing, more than half of it glaringly gained in 4th quarter crunch time.

While Illinois might have some similar issues (possibly exposed further next week against Penn State?), it’s Nebraska we’re concerned about, so let’s get to it.

How Big Is the Problem?

So are Nebraska’s defensive issues a “this season” problem which have only exposed themselves in the last couple of games?

Possibly. Outside of being blitzed 45-7 by Michigan, no 2023 game comes to mind where we were continually unable to get the opposition’s offense off the field. (And let’s remember Michigan’s ease of victory comes with an asterisk.)

Photo by Steven Branscombe/Getty Images

And when 2023 concluded, all seemed well as the Huskers finished 13th nationally in ppg surrendered and 11th in yards given up per game. Tony White had engineered an amazing turnaround and the Blackshirts were back.

But were they?

I thought we had played a few really lousy offenses last season, but how tough was the schedule overall?

(School listed followed by national FBS rank in yards allowed. I used yards allowed instead of points to eliminate defensive points scored. There were 133 FBS teams in 2023 – I point this out only shine a light on that fact Iowa was dead last. Because I hate them.)

• Minnesota – 125th
• Colorado – 82nd
• Northern Illinois – 77th
• Louisiana Tech – 68th
• Michigan – 69th
• Illinois – 62nd
• Northwestern – 124th
• Purdue – 72nd
• Michigan St. – 128th
• Maryland – 65th
• Wisconsin – 71st
• Iowa – 133rd

(For comparison’s sake, the Huskers were 117th.)

So to put some context to the 2023 Blackshirts, only two of their opponents – Illinois and Maryland – finished in the top 50% offensively…barely. In addition, four – Northwestern, Minnesota, Michigan St. and Iowa – finished in the bottom 10. Teams, not percent.

I’m not gonna add all that up for the exact average, but I’m guessing it lands somewhere in the high 80’s or low 90’s. And 12 games against teams who average out in that particular spot on the national scale probably covers for some weak spots.

So the Question Is…

This by no means makes 2023 suddenly a terrible defense. Top 15 is solid even if competing against the bottom 25-30 – but it’s probably fair to assume it’s dropping from the top 15 some if the offensive ranking rises, to say, the top 65 (50%).

But if I can take it one step further….

When, after his hire, I learned Tony White’s preferred scheme was the 3-3-5, my first thought was something along the lines of “this sorta sounds like the base defense is a nickel with three down linemen. In the Big 10. Is this sustainable against teams who line up against us and try to pound the ball?”

Granted, the Big 10, outside of P.J. (ass), isn’t really running too many seven-O-linemen formations and pounding between the tackles. But it still feels like a big enough conference up front that having only two bigguns (Ty and Nash), Jamari, three linebackers and five D-backs – even if Isaac Gifford is from the Carl Pelini Peso LB-safety hybrid of the Eric Hagg-Dejon Gomes variety – may not be quite enough come ground and pound time.

Last season? No worries. Now? Worries…maybe?

There was talk of missed assignments and missed tackles after Illinois. Yes, there were missed tackles, but, in the fourth quarter, there were also gaping holes up front. Consider also the Huskers coaches well knew there were issues getting Northern Iowa off the field and had a full week to adjust if it was truly a fixable issue. They didn’t and it may not be.

But it may be – after all, we’re talking two below-par performances out of sixteen for Rhule and White. No sane person is ready to blow everything up four games into Year 2 of a rebuild. But it’s also fair to be concerned when the issue goes into physicality, something which shouldn’t be backsliding in Year 2.

But, hey, going to the 2023 ranking above, Illinois, who we beat 20-7, was the best offense we faced in 2023!! Which doesn’t make me happy, but, Altmeyer’s a year older and, maybe at the end of the year, we’ve won 8 games and this doesn’t look like a horrible loss.

But still…I have a some trepidation at this point. (That’s three straight “but’s”. I know.)

We should cruise against Purdue; they’ve been pretty bad, especially on defense, but they also bring to the table Devon Mockobee (30 carries for 178 yards vs the 2022 Huskers) and Reggie Love (why would you transfer from Illinois to Purdue??) who are averaging over 7 ypc and 6 ypc respectively. So, it’s kind of the matchup we want – weaker team which offers a good run game to test whether we’re making progress.

The two weeks following are Rutgers and Indiana and those will not be memorable experiences if things haven’t been tightened up by then.

So let’s finish up with a poll, if anyone’s still awake after all this. And, as always, fire your thoughts into the comments below – that’s why they’re there!!

After trying to sell y’all on The Old Man, this old man thought he’d see how many others learned what DEFCON was from War Games.

Also, I need a spark plug.

Go Big Red.

Nebraska Cornhuskers

Purdue

#huskers
#nebraska
#purdue
#mattrhule
#tonywhite
#dylanrailoa