The 2024 Huskers – Wary Optimism vs. Red Flags: The Quarterback Room Nebraska Dylan Raiola Heinrich Haarberg Daniel Kaelin

Welcome to today’s installment of Wary Optimism vs. Red Flags. I was juggling with how long to drag out the biggest question on everyone’s mind, Then the coaches made it easy by not dragging it out any longer.

A simple tweet was made to announce the Huskers’ starting quarterback for the 2024 season opener against Texas Tech. And the shock level was somewhere between “might rain today” and –

If we’re honest, it was also all tinged with a healthy dose of –

But all is well and Dylan Raiola will be back in the gun taking the opening snaps on August 28th.

If you watched this year’s spring game and have reasonably efficient vision, then you knew, barring injury, this would be the case. The arm, the touch, the body language and the decision-making of Raiola were all on a different level than that of Heinrich Haarberg or Daniel Kaelin.

And it was simply what you would expect from a recruit of Raiola’s level. Raiola is highest ranked quarterback recruit – or any other position for that matter – since Coach Osborne obtained the commitment of Palmetto, Florida’s Manatee HS QB Tommie Frazier. That worked out. Raiola was not only a 5-star ranked recruit, but one who at times was both the #1 ranked QB & #1 ranked overall player.

If he could not beat out Haarberg, who started all five of Nebraska’s wins but struggled mightily in the passing game, and Bellevue West’s Kaelin, who briefly considered looking elsewhere when Raiola flipped from the Bulldogs, then those rankings would probably have to be reevaluated somewhat.

This is no knock on either Haarberg or Kaelin. Far from it, as I consider the entire QB room upgraded from 2023. If the 2024 depth chart goes DR – Heinrich – Danny, I will take that head-to-head over 2023, top to bottom:

1) Raiola vs. Jeff Sims – Please. More numbers below, but if Raiola could have left high school early, he would have been a much better option than Sims who basically played 2 ¹⁄₂ games and committed 10 of NU’s nation-leading 31 turnovers.

2) 2024 Haarberg vs 2023 Haarberg – ‘24 Haarberg still needs to be seen in game action, but his mechanics alone were noticeably improved in the spring game. After two years of being basically ignored and now having a dedicated QB coach, this version of Haarberg is already an upgrade over the one who was thrust into starting duty last year.

3) Kaelin vs. Chubba – This one’s a little tougher, but I’ll take Kaelin for two reasons – 1) Eye test (Hey, if people can hide in a room and pick CFP teams on that basis, I can do it for an article.). I liked his accuracy and mechanics in the spring game and in practice film. 2) Chubba looked improved from his 2022 appearances, but those were best described “unmitigated disaster”. He had flashes last season, but also had crippling late picks and fumbles with no one near him.

We would have gone bowling with this QB room last season.

I have long believed simply below average quarterback play would have flipped the 2023 5-7 record to 8 or 9 total wins if not more. The QB numbers seem to bear that out in the six losses below (I left out Michigan since we weren’t winning that game with Lamar Jackson.)

Chubba’s numbers against Wisconsin are only eye-popping compared to the other four losses and didn’t result in any more points – 17 and 10 respectively – and his 3 TDs vs. 3 TOs , while an improvement, are still an unacceptable ratio. In the six losses, the Huskers scored 17 points twice, 14 once and 10 three times.

And the quarterbacks were responsible for 7 touchdowns vs. 17 turnovers. If that’s reduced to only a still crappy 1:1 ratio – be it 7 TDs to 7 turnovers or 17(!) TDs to 17 turnovers, several of those games are getting flipped.

Minnesota – 11-19 114YDS 1 TD 3 INTS
Colorado – 11-22 119 1 TD 1 INT 2 FL 1 rushing TD
Michigan St – 12-28 129 0 TD 2 INTS 1 FL 1 rushing TD
Maryland – 10-21 86 0 TD 4 INTS 1 FL
Wisconsin – 15-24 169 1 TD 1 INT 1 rushing TD
Iowa – 15-28 189 1 TD 1 INT 1 FL

TOTAL – 74-142 806 52.1% 4 TD 12 INT 5 FL 3 rushing TDs (7 TDs vs. 17 turnovers)

So here we are and I know I may be putting a good deal of faith in the unknown, but it doesn’t feel like to much of a stretch to say Haarberg will be improved and Raiola and Kaelin, whether it’s Raiola starting or Kaelin forced into the job through injury, will be an improvement on the statistical suicide above.

I will go one better – I look at the receiver depth and the offensive line with another year in the weight room, and I predict Raiola will have much better than just a decent freshman season.

Comment below – how do you feel about this group as we roll into 2024?

Photo by Adam Ruff/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

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