THE 2024 HUSKERS – Wary Optimism vs. Red Flags: Can Nebraska Learn To Win Again? Nebraska Matt Rhule Dylan Raiola

August 28, 2021.

Cam-Taylor Britt steadily drifted back under what ended up being a booming 59-yard punt from Illinois’ Blake Hayes.

For anybody who enjoys movies like The Hot Zone, Contagion or, in the case of zombie infestations instead of infectious diseases, World War Z, everyone knows the key to engineering a vaccine and making everything in the world right again is finding Patient Zero.

Cam Taylor-Britt, one of the finest Huskers to ever wear the scarlet and cream, on this punt 1) lost his bearings and, instead of letting the punt sail into the end zone, chose to field it inside 1-yard line, and 2) instead of just going down and possibly risking the ball being downed inside the 1, stumbled back into the end zone and chucked an illegal forward pass out of bounds resulting in the play being ruled a safety.

This play was Patient Zero of the one-score loss Huskerdemic. Give me a moment.

I am not hinting it was Cam’s fault in the least, only that he was the first stung by the Ebola-level contagion which has afflicted Nebraska players, Big 10 referees and opposing players (in the form of sudden superpowers) with equality. For example, after the Huskers had overcome the safety to take a 9-2 lead, Cam responded by picking off a Brandon Peters pass and the Huskers were in position to start pulling away.

However, the bug struck again – and right in a zebra’s ass this time – when it was determined a Caleb waist-level hit on Peters was both late and below the waist thus turning a pick into a 30-yard gain for the Illini. They tied the game at 9-9 and raced to a 30-9 lead through some other events I don’t want to relive. Adrian Martinez singlehandedly brought the boys back close, but the damage had been done. 30-23

And the Huskers had lost the first of ten straight one-score games.

Entering the 2021 season, Scott Frost thought he was sitting on a buzzsaw despite the degree of difficulty in the schedule which included six ranked teams, three in the top 10. This followed a rough three seasons of trying to restore some toughness to a team which, according to some players, had loose to no lifting requirements in the Mike Riley years. It felt they had worked their way back to competing in the trenches again on both sides of the ball.

Frost had a rough start in one-score games when he was 1-5 in the 2018 season. For the next two seasons, however, he was a combined 4-7 which, while not ideal, seemed to be trending upward as the team improved.

But then.

When 2021 was mercifully over, the final tally was 3-9 with a record of 0-8 in “those” games. The lone loss not falling into that category was 26-17 to #5 Ohio State which they were very much in late. It was crazy to watch as they literally had a chance to win every single one of the nine losses. I was driving to Minot, SD, after the season and a math genius of some sort was on radio explaining how he spun a computer simulation which re-ran the 2021 season 5000 times. The most common result was 9-3. 3-9 happened less than 10 times – compared to 15 results of 12-0.

Now about that time, there were all kinds of rumors floating about Frost and there’s no need to list them all here. I’ll only add this – if I had been through the previous three years, and my team went through a season like that when I was convinced 9-3 was the baseline? Let’s just say I’d only hope I could stymie my alcohol intake and resist the urge to seek solace with a golf simulator or other options available to me.

In any case, that season seemed to break him, as well as many of the fans, and it showed in how flat the team appeared to be as the 2022 season commenced. Around a win over North Dakota, the Huskers would sandwich two more one-score losses against 1-11 Northwestern and 6-7 Ga Southern to stretch the streak to 0-10.

Photo by John Fisher/Getty Images

Matt Rhule rolled into Lincoln for the 2023 season and one of the first things he stated was how he felt the culture was in a pretty good place (the opposite being the case when he arrived was something Frost supposedly said to close associates). He established his way of doing things exuded optimism and confidence in the process. Improvements were visible, most notably on a defense which vaulted into the top 20.

And they finished 5-7 with an 0-5 record in…those games.

IS THIS THE TURNAROUND SEASON?

Set Number: X49859 TK4 R7 F15

Okay, the above’s not happening, but-

Since Patient Zero, the Huskers are 2-18 in “those” games (2-3 under ‘22 interim HC Mickey Joseph). It spans three seasons, three coaches, and seven different starting quarterbacks. It has taken the “forgotten how to win” vibes to a new level. Without diving into a whole Ted Lasso “It’s the hope that kills you,” thing, are there solid reasons to hope this year?

Many pundits seem to think so. The schedule is ranked 60th or so. Betting services have set the over/under total wins line at 7.5 for the most part. Betting “experts” are calling the over a good bet. Phil Steele pegs them as his pick for #2 Most Improved team in the country.

It probably speaks to the last several years and especially the last three that those sort of things inspire far more unease than confidence – we’ve won our share of offseason, have not? But I’m going with confidence for the following reasons:

• The defense. Yes, some of their 2023 numbers may be a little inflated since they got to play in the Big 10 West thus giving them games against five of the worst offenses in the country. But that defensive line is legit. And no one pushed them around except Michigan – which as we know had…advantages.
• The offensive line. I get it was tough to see, but for two years they’ve been improving. And as Coach Rhule pointed out at Big 10 Football Media Days, they spent 2023 running the ball against defenses who knew they were running the ball and loaded up with no reason to fear the pass. They also had three starters injured for the season or missing significant playing time. They are deeper and more experienced this season.
• Coach Rhule’s track record. We’ve all seen what he did at Temple and Baylor. He said Nebraska was in a much better place and the 5-7 record even with – especially with – “those” losses and we have to admit he was right. Normally, 5-7 in year two would be a nice improvement for him. The year two bar has moved.
• Dylan Raiola. I get it, I do. He hasn’t played a down of college ball. However, without repeating everything I said in a previous article, the quarterback position, which played a huge part in “those” losses last season, has upgraded. Rhule listed the reasons Raiola is starting as elite arm talent, understanding all the RB checks, the entire RPO game and the situation of football, as well as cleaning up his footwork. The turnover differential will improve. Greatly.
• Additionally, there will be some freshman mistakes. Those will still be an improvement on last season’s house of horrors at times. Additionally, I believe he will do more than simply be average. What I said about the offensive line above? We’re going to see what they can do when there’s a passing game to fear.

Just for comparison’s sake, here’s the numbers going back to the beginning of the post-Osborne years for each coach. In addition to the one-score games, I also dug out the number of blowout wins vs. blowout losses for some comparison. I used 21+ points as the baseline for what constitutes a blowout. No hard data on how arrived at that number, it just sounded good. (BO’s = blowouts)

MATT RHULE – YEAR 1 EACH ONE-SCORE GAME

2023

Minnesota L 13-10
Michigan State L 20-17
Maryland L 13-10
Wisconsin L 24-17 OT
Iowa L 13-10

One-score games – 0-5 (Blowouts – 1 win/2 losses)

THE SCOTT FROST YEARS – PUTTING THE GUT IN GUT PUNCH

2022 – 2-5 (BO’s-1/1) (Mickey Joseph Interim HC last 9 games)

THE ‘22 SPLIT

Frost – 0-2 (BO’s-1/1)
Joseph – 2-3 (BO’s-none)

2021 – 0-8 (BO’s-3/0)

2020 – 2-3 (BO’s-1/1)

2019 – 2-4 (BO’s-2/2)

2018 – 1-5 (BO’s-2/1)

TOTAL – 7-25 (Blowouts – 9/7)
Frost – 5-22

THE MIKE RILEY YEARS – ESTABLISHING THE CULTURE OF MEDIOCRITY

2017 – 2-3 (BO’s-1/4)

2016 – 3-1 (BO’s-1/2)

2015 – 3-5 (BO’s-1/0)

TOTAL – 8-9 (Blowouts – 3/6)

THE BO PELINI YEARS – WHEN BOWL GAMES WERE STILL TAKEN FOR GRANTED

2014 – 2-3 (BO’s-5/1)

2013 – 5-0 (BO’s-3/1)

2012 – 4-1 (BO’s-4/2)

2011 – 2-1 (BO’s-4/2)

2010 – 1-3 (BO’s-5/0)

2009 – 2-3 (BO’s-4/1)

2008 – 1-2 (BO’s-5/2)

TOTAL – 17-13 (Blowouts – 30/9)

THE BILL CALLAHAN YEARS – BUDDIES OVER PROGRAM: A CASE STUDY

2007 – 2-1 (BO’s-2/4)

2006 – 2-2 (BO’s-3/0)

2005 – 4-2 (BO’s-2/1)

2004 – 2-3 (BO’s-3/3)

TOTAL – 10-8 (Blowouts – 10/8)

THE FRANK SOLICH YEARS – THE JOURNEY TO OHIO BEGINS

2003 – 1-0 (BO’s-6/2)

2002 – 1-3 (BO’s-4/3)

(A split line to show the years After Crouch (AC) above and During Crouch (DC) below )

2001 – 0-0 (BO’s-6/2 (Colorado & Miami))

2000 – 2-1 (BO’s-7/0)

1999 – 3-1 (BO’s-7/0)

1998 – 2-3 (BO’s-5/0)

TOTAL – 7-5 (Blowouts 25/2 – 10/5 in the years AC)

What are your thoughts? Are you hopeful, wary, all of the above? What gives you hope or makes you hold it at wait and see? Let us know in the comments and Go Big Red.

Dylan Widger-USA TODAY Sports

Nebraska Cornhuskers

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