Well… It didn’t rain.
Based on a forecast that all but guaranteed precipitation, that was a surprising and unexpected result.
On a cool and grey November Saturday full of surprising and unexpected results, the lack of rain was one of the few positives.
It was a chili and cinnamon rolls kind of day. Given a prime opportunity to get their ever so elusive sixth win, the Huskers were like Kevin Malone from “The Office” making his famous chili. Kevin works to overcome a few hurdles (such as the elevator being out of order), proudly narrating all the ways his chili is “probably the thing I do best”.
Meanwhile, we watch in horror as Kevin spills the gigantic pot of chili all over the floor.
Frantic to save what’s left of the thing he worked so hard on, Kevin grabs a clipboard and some file folders in a vain attempt to scoop and shovel it back in the pot.
Sound familiar?
I’ll listen to the argument that UCLA wasn’t as bad as their 2-5 record suggested, but this is a team that Nebraska could have – and should have – beaten. The promise of Matt Rhule’s second season, and a large chunk of fan optimism about the program came spilling onto the rug Saturday afternoon. Rhule, Marcus Satterfield and Ed Foley were unable to scoop enough back into the pot to salvage the day.
The Office clip ends with Kevin rolling around in the mess he made. Heading into what will feel like the longest off week in school history, Nebraska coaches, players, and fans all get to lie in that mess, as the emotional rollercoaster plummets downward.
For better or worse, everybody is going to get to know each other in the pot. Meanwhile, we need to have some very frank discussions.
I’m serious about this stuff.
Matt Rhule is damn lucky this wasn’t a blowout. I was surprised that UCLA opted for a field goal on their first drive, when their long march down the field stalled in a 4th & 1. Two drives later, when the Bruins again had another 4th & 1, I was shocked they didn’t go for it. It is fair to say that UCLA left eight points on the field.
Meanwhile – and this is insane – all three of Nebraska’s scoring drives were greatly benefited by unsportsmanlike conduct penalties on Bruin defenders. Does Nebraska score more than three or seven points if the visitors did not gift wrap multiple second chances?
You know what? I’d rather not consider that. Losing 27-20 to a 2-5 team is bad, but a 35-3 home blowout would have been catastrophic.
Dylan Raiola is hearing footsteps and seeing ghosts. The true freshman QB was 14 of 27 for 177 yards with a touchdown and a pick six. He was sacked three times and pressured numerous other times.
We can – and will – talk more about the offensive issues in the next section, but it is obvious that Raiola is rattled. He’s either running for his life, not seeing open receivers, throwing behind his targets, or a combination of the three.
It’s likely that lingering injury issues (before the shot that knocked him out of the game) have been impacting his mechanics and confidence. Being flushed out of the pocket is interrupting his timing. And he’s either not seeing open receivers or not trusting himself to get the ball to them. The myriad of issues with play calling, the other 10 guys on the field, and the pressure to get bowl eligible are likely not helping.
I’m hopeful that during the off week, Raiola can heal and focus on his basic mechanics and regain some confidence. This feels like a fork-in-the-road moment. Quarterbacks coach Glenn Thomas has a big opportunity to steer things in the right direction.
It is hard to win when only one of the three phases has any sort of success. Overall, I thought the defense had a decent day. Yes, the first quarter was atrocious (UCLA picked up seven first downs, gained 119 yards, converted 4 of 5 third downs, and held the ball for 13:24), but the rest of the game (10 first downs, 239 yards, just 2 of 8 on third down, and 15:50 in time of possession) was good enough to win.
Unfortunately, the offense was a gigantic poop emoji. The Huskers are on track for their fourth season (out of their last five) where they fail to average 24 points per game.
Be honest: if I could guarantee the Huskers would score 24 points per game in their final three contests, how many of you would roll the dice on them scoring more?
And last, but certainly not least, are the special teams. Other than Brian Buschini (currently tied for 13th in the nation in punting average at 46.4 yards), the entire operation is about as useless as a kayak on the interstate.
Each of Nebraska’s final three drives – when Nebraska desperately needed points as quickly as possible – started with a UCLA punt. In the olden days, a player like De’Mornay Pierson-El, DeJuan Groce, or Nate Swift would have been a threat to get Nebraska right back into the game.
In Ed Foley’s system, Isaiah Garcia-Castaneda’s sole purpose is to catch punts without causing damage. Maybe that philosophy should be extended to kickoffs, where for the second straight week, Nebraska started inside the 20 when doing absolutely nothing would have gotten them to the 25.
The missed extra point on Nebraska’s final touchdown was largely met with a “Yeah, that seems about right” reaction from the fans who had not already left.
(Author’s note: we’re going to deviate a little from our normal process and focus solely on Nebraska’s broken offense. For all three, I’m operating under the assumption that this will be Marcus Satterfield’s final season in Lincoln. The change probably won’t be announced until after the Iowa game, but the writing is on the wall: Matt Rhule will be hiring a new O.C. for 2025.)
Who will call plays against USC? I do not believe that Marcus Satterfield is going to be fired over the off week. But I will entertain the possibility that somebody else (likely quarterbacks coach Glenn Thomas) could be calling plays and/or be the voice in Dylan Raiola’s helmet.
I’m still of the opinion that handing the play sheet to Thomas, Rhule, you, or me isn’t likely to result in dramatically different results. There are issues with at least 8 of the 11 offensive positions, each of which has a negative impact on everything else.
Unless Thomas is aware of some magical buttons that Satterfield is not pushing, I don’t see a change resulting in a 30-point outburst. Also, when many fans are worried that Raiola’s development has stalled (or is regressing), is adding more game day responsibilities to his position coach the greatest plan?
That said, it is blatantly obvious that the status quo is not working. I don’t see NU remaking their offense in November, but hoping for better results from the same set of inputs feels like an exercise in futility.
What does Matt Rhule want this offense to be, and how does a five-star QB fit into that vision? To me, this is the fundamental disconnect in Nebraska’s offense. What Rhule has previously said he wants and what Marcus Satterfield has tried to do go together like plaid and polka dots. And I’m not sure how a “blue-chip pocket passer” quarterback fits into what Rhule has previously said.
Prior to the 2023 season, Rhule said he wanted NU to be a team that can “run the ball with power and take shots” in the passing game. Having plucked Jeff Sims from the transfer portal, Rhule said that having a mobile quarterback is “vital” in college football.
Over the winter, Rhule expressed a desire to replicate the “positionless offense” of the San Francisco 49’ers, where skill players line up at multiple places on the field. True freshman Carter Nelson was cited as a player who could be utilized in such a system. Through nine games, Nelson (playing primarily as a receiver in his first year of 11-man football) has 8 catches for 75 yards and one rush for zero yards.
Rhule – on multiple occasions this season – has expressed his desire for his players to turn 8-yard gains into 80-yard runs. While 80-yard plays are more “outlier” than “offensive identity”, it does speak to the explosive element Rhule clearly values. Cynics will also note that longer, sustained drives give Nebraska more chances for the penalties and turnovers that have killed drives in the past.
There are many other factors in the identity discussion: what Rhule feels is best to attack the other Big 10 teams, what complements his defense, the realities of northern Novembers, the talent on hand, what the assistants know and can teach, to name just a few.
Meanwhile, there’s Dylan Raiola, who likely did not come to Nebraska to hand the ball off 40 times a game. He has good mobility for a pro style passer, but trying to make him a mobile quarterback makes as much sense as having Joe Dailey run Bill Callahan’s west coast offense in 2004.
I don’t care who is on your offensive coordinator wish list. If they can’t get on the same page with Rhule – and figure out how to maximize Raiola’s strengths – the result will likely be the same.
Who will have more input into Nebraska’s next offensive coordinator: Troy Dannen or Dominic Raiola? Obviously, Rhule will be the one making the decision on who he wants, but I’m curious how much input he will seek and/or receive from Dominic Raiola – father of current quarterback Dylan and 2026 commit Dayton.
I have zero reason to believe that Dominic is going to hand Rhule a list of names approved by the family, or even have a direct conversation with Rhule about the (presumed) opening. But I think we can all envision a scenario where Rhule discusses potential candidates with his offensive line coach / Dominic’s little brother.
Dom obviously wants his boys to be in a situation where they can be successful (and have their talents showcased for NFL scouts). I suspect he doesn’t envision them running zone reads and option plays. Dom is fiercely loyal to his alma mater but being a father trumps everything else.
As for Dannen, I don’t see him as Shawn Eichorst 2.0. Dannen seems highly unlikely to “suggest” that Rhule hire the offensive version of Bob Diaco.
I don’t want to say Dannen has simply been a rubber stamp for whatever Rhule wants, because that comes across as dismissive of what Dannen has done in his first seven months on the job. But other than a “tell me why he’s your guy” conversation, I don’t envision the A.D. giving his head coach a ton of pushback.
A “Huskerigami” is a final score combination (win or lose) that has never happened in the 130+ year history of Nebraska football.
Final score: 27-20
Is that a Huskerigami? No. It has happened once before: a double-overtime win over Iowa State in 2005.
- Brian Buschini. Three punts for a 55.7-yard average. His bounce back has been one of the true highlights of the season.
- Jacory Barney Jr. The most (positively) reliable part of the offense. Memo to Matt Davison and company at 1890: Make sure Barney is happy before the P4 poachers start sliding into his DMs.
- Heinrich Haarberg. Even though his stats ended up worse than I would have guessed (2 of 7 passing for 32 yards and an interception that was not his fault), I thought Haarberg gave Nebraska the best chance to tie the game on the final possession. Also, did you see Haarberg playing gunner on at least two of Nebraska’s punts?
- Ty Robinson. UCLA made it a priority to get the ball out early, which limits the impact a guy like Robinson can have. Four tackles, including a sack and two tackles for loss is pretty good under the circumstances.
- Isaiah Neyor. If the offense is going to get on track, he needs to be the guy we saw in August/September. Four catches for 89 yards and a touchdown is a good start.
Honorable mention: DeShon Singleton, Tommi Hill, fullback Elijah Jeudy, the Cornhusker Marching Band’s annual Armed Forces medley for Veteran’s Day.
- Red zone, hurry-up offense. Fourth & goal from the 5, down 14 points. After a NU timeout, the receivers on the field (Barney, Nelson, and Alex Bullock) have a combined 47 catches on the season, 38 of which belong to Barney. Meanwhile, Neyor and Jahmal Banks (a total of 52 catches this year) watch from the sideline as Raiola is sacked. On the next drive, Neyor catches a pass at the UCLA 9-yard line with approximately 7:30 left in the game. Nebraska needed SEVEN plays to gain those nine yards, with seven coming via two Bruin penalties. Meanwhile, the Huskers burned over 3:30 of clock, huddling before every single play. It was maddening.
- Offensive counter measures. I’m not a coach, but even I know that when a team is bringing heavy pressure (as UCLA did most of the game) you can use their pressure against them with draw plays and screen passes. I’ll listen to the argument that Satterfield was too scared to call a screen after last week. I’m not sure I remember the last draw play Nebraska ran.
- Running back rotation. NU went run-heavy on the drive after the pick six. Rahmir Johnson gained 15 yards on two carries and was replaced by Dante Dowdell. Dowdell gained 14 yards on three carries and was replaced by Emmett Johnson. EJ carried it once (for 2 yards) before two straight passes ended a promising drive. I would love to know the most consecutive carries a NU back has gotten on a drive before being subbed out. I’d guess it’s less than five. At that feels high.
- Turnovers. Remember the glory days of September when the offense was protecting the rock and the defense was taking it away? Me neither. Nebraska is -6 on turnovers in the last three games, and their season margin is down to zero.
- Collin Miller. As I and others noted, the atmosphere at kickoff was flat. So while there may be some valid points in the former Blackshirt’s Twitter thread about the crowd, Miller needs to read the room. Right, wrong, or otherwise, Nebraska fans aren’t going to be receptive to being called out, especially after the team played poorly.
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