Storylines, matchups to watch (and a prediction) for Huskers vs. Wolverines

Projected as 31-point underdogs against a national championship contender, Nebraska will face a tough challenge against Michigan on Saturday at Michigan Stadium. Here’s a closer look at how the Huskers and Wolverines match up.

How the Huskers light up the scoreboard

1. QB consistency: Regardless of whether Chubba Purdy or Logan Smothers gets the start at quarterback, a consistent effort from Nebraska’s signal-caller is needed. Apart from a scripted opening drive touchdown last week, Nebraska hasn’t found the end zone with its backup QBs.

2. Limit three-and-outs: It may be difficult to avoid three-and-outs entirely against a defense of Michigan’s caliber, but limiting them can make a big difference. Not only are those drives damaging to an offense’s rhythm, but they also keep a defense from catching its breath. The Husker defense will definitely need a breather at times.

3. Stick with the run: Interim head coach Mickey Joseph has stressed the importance of being content with 3- or 4-yard gains on the ground as opposed to always looking for the big play. Even if Nebraska struggles to pick up rushing yards early in the game, the Huskers can’t abandon the run as they have in weeks past.

4. Touchdowns, not field goals: Nebraska will have to make the most of its successful offensive drives, and that means walking away with seven points instead of three. It’s unlikely to be a game where a singular field goal will make a difference, so fourth-down attempts in search of a touchdown should factor into NU’s offensive approach.

How the Blackshirts shut ’em down

1. Run fits: A key point of emphasis from defensive coordinator Bill Busch, Nebraska’s ability to plug gaps and keep Michigan from breaking big runs will play a big part in dictating the final score. Most opponents have breezed past Nebraska in this regard.

2. Make McCarthy throw: An identical goal from last week, Nebraska successfully forced Minnesota into passing situations during a 10-0 first half last week. Michigan quarterback J.J. McCarthy is more talented and capable of powering an offense than any of the Gophers’ quarterbacks, but Michigan would prefer not to have him attempt more than 20-25 passes.

3. Produce turnovers: A goal that’s easier said than done, Michigan ranks third nationally with just five turnovers this season. Any Wolverine interceptions or fumbles would give Nebraska a chance to lessen the gap between the two teams.

4. Limit big plays: Even if Michigan is able to consistently pick up first downs via its run game, limiting the Wolverines to short gains could be a win for the Nebraska defense. In fact, limiting the number of plays in the entire game should be a goal for Nebraska.

72.4: Michigan has the nation’s best rush defense that only allows 72.4 rushing yards per game.

99: Nebraska has gone 99 in-game minutes since its last passing touchdown, a second-quarter score against Illinois.

29: Michigan is tied for 10th nationally with 29 sacks this season; Nebraska has recorded 15 sacks.

RB | No. 22 | R-Fr.: After missing Nebraska’s last four games with a turf toe injury, Ervin will be available to play against Michigan. He’s averaged 5.5 yards per carry in limited action this season, and should provide a good change of pace compared to Anthony Grant.

DB | No. 37 | Jr.: With safety Myles Farmer suspended for the Michigan game, Nebraska will turn to Sanford as one of its secondary options. Sanford played 61 snaps against Purdue in place of Marques Buford under similar conditions, and has made nine tackles so far this season.

Michigan run game against Nebraska run defense

To borrow a phrase from Busch, there’s no hope of stopping Michigan’s run game, but slowing it down is possible. Blake Corum has run for 100 yards or more six games in a row, and it’d be foolish to say that he won’t reach that mark against Nebraska. But, if the Huskers can limit his yards per carry and make him rack up the touches to get there, it’d show growth from a run defense that looked overmatched early in the season.

Michigan’s McCarthy has truly elevated his play as a sophomore. McCarthy has gone 139-of-196 (70.9%) passing for 1,615 yards, 12 touchdowns and two interceptions this season. McCarthy hasn’t been spectacular, but he’s been dependable and avoided turnovers — which is more than Nebraska can say with its backups on the field. Smothers and Purdy’s combined season performance is 22-of-47 (46.8%) passing for 172 yards, zero touchdowns and three interceptions.

Considering Nebraska has scored 13 points in its last six quarters without Thompson, it’s hard to see the Huskers breaking through against one of the best defenses in the entire country. A much-improved offensive performance could lessen the hurt of Michigan’s stellar ground game because Corum and Donovan Edwards appear ready to do some damage. The Wolverines have had several 200-yard rushing performances this season, and should find success against Nebraska in that area. As massive underdogs, simply playing Michigan close would be an effort worth building on.