Storylines, matchups to watch (and a prediction) for Huskers vs. Badgers

Nebraska is seeking to break a four-game losing streak on Saturday at Memorial Stadium, but it hasn’t beaten this week’s opponent, Wisconsin, since 2012. Here’s a closer look at how the Huskers and Badgers match up.

How the Huskers light up the scoreboard

1. Let it rip: With Casey Thompson set to play for the first time in three weeks, Nebraska can resume its strategy of stretching defenses with deep passing routes. Trey Palmer’s had been neutralized with Thompson on the sidelines, so now’s the time to target him again.

2. 20 Grant touches: Much of this can be explained by game script, but all of Nebraska’s wins have included 20 or more touches for Anthony Grant. After averaging 22.8 carries over Nebraska’s first five games, Grant has seen just 14.8 carries per contest in Nebraska’s last five games.

3. Get aggressive: Even with Thompson in the fray, Nebraska is still a double-digit underdog against Wisconsin. Fourth-down tries, going for touchdowns instead of field goals and aggressive play-calling just all factor into Nebraska’s game plan. Maybe stay clear of onside kicks, though.

4. Protect Thompson: Nebraska won’t last long in this game if it can’t keep Thompson on the field. Pass protection hasn’t always been one of NU’s strong suits this year, and Wisconsin has an effective pass rush. Keeping Thompson healthy is perhaps the biggest key of all.

How the Blackshirts shut ’em down

1. Limit Allen: A difficult run of punishing running backs continues with Wisconsin’s Braelon Allen this week. Seven of Allen’s 10 rushing touchdowns have come in games that Wisconsin won, and he’s already over the 1,000-yard mark this season. Allen is the heartbeat of the Wisconsin offense.

2. Three-and-outs: The Nebraska defense helped keep its team in the game against Minnesota with a first-half shutout, and it also forced multiple three-and-outs against an excellent Michigan offense. Getting off the field and putting its offense in control of the ball would help keep the NU defense fresh.

3. Force a turnover: Allen has only lost one fumble in 189 carries this year, so Nebraska’s best chances of a takeaway come from Wisconsin quarterback Graham Mertz. He’s thrown eight interceptions this year, and had two turnovers in a loss to Iowa last week.

4. One-score game: The longer the Nebraska defense can keep it a one-score game, the better. Teams like Wisconsin excel in taking an early lead and bleeding the clock, but Nebraska’s game against Minnesota showed the Huskers can hang in there against such an offensive philosophy.

31.9%: Wisconsin is allowing opponents to convert 31.9% of their third-down chances; Nebraska allows 41.8% of conversion attempts.

26:39: Nebraska ranks 124th out of 131 schools with an average time of possession of 26:39 this season.

75.8%: Only 75.8% of opponents’ trips inside the Wisconsin red zone end in points, a mark that puts the Badgers tied for 13th in the nation.

TE | No. 83 | Sr.: Vokolek has been quiet since Thompson’s injury, with just one catch in the last two games. But, he’s been capable of making big plays throughout the year and on his Senior Day, Nebraska could use one more from him.

LB | No. 15 | Fr.: Hausmann made a career-high 10 tackles and recorded the first sack of his career against Michigan last week. The freshman linebacker has been trending up in recent weeks, and will look to continue that momentum against Wisconsin.

Nebraska pass game against Wisconsin pass defense

Nebraska’s ability to stay in the game will likely depend on how well Thompson can step in and resume his previous role in the offense. Nebraska should try and get Grant going on the ground, but it’ll need plenty of third-down conversions and well-timed throws from Thompson in order to win. Wisconsin has a top-35 pass defense nationally, so it won’t be easy for Thompson to find spaces to thread the ball.

In terms of sacks allowed, Nebraska and Wisconsin aren’t far apart — the Huskers have allowed 27 sacks this season and the Badgers have allowed 24. But, advanced statistics show the gap between the two offensive lines. Pro Football Focus gives Wisconsin the fourth-best pass blocking grade (73) in Big Ten, while Nebraska is the second-worst with a grade of 34.3. Things aren’t much different in run blocking, where Wisconsin grades out at 70.2 and Nebraska at 55.3, just above Indiana at the bottom of the conference.

Wisconsin 27, Nebraska 17

Thompson’s return should give a jolt to the offense that has been lacking in recent weeks. But, it’d be wise not to place too many expectations on a quarterback returning from an elbow injury. If he’s any less than 100%, any hit could cause pain to flare up and potentially knock Thompson out of the game. Additionally, will he still have the timing with Palmer that he showed earlier in the year? Wisconsin is a lock to chew up clock and score multiple rushing touchdowns, so Nebraska will have to keep up the pace. The Huskers should be competitive, but Wisconsin is a tough team to break down.