Stats and armchair observations: In defense of Martinez

Each week we’ve perceived Adrian appearing to make slow reads, sloppy plays…fumbling or throwing stupid interceptions. He won’t throw down field, he misplaces swing passes with concerning regularity. People say he’s broken. Yadda yadda. Yesterday’s game certainly provided some evidence of the same.

BUT! We’ve also seen a stoic, poised quarterback who never seems to lose his nerve, has showed positive emotional qualities and leadership, and has some honestly not bad stats, lead this team through the rougher moments and make something yet of this season.

I wanted to see the stats behind his year, and found some encouraging numbers:

Completion percentage: 71.5% (2nd in Big10, behind only Fields), Efficiency: 135 (4th behind Fields, Tagovailoa and Penix), Rushing Yards (3rd), Rushing Yds/Gm (5th), Total Offense (5th).

Martinez has serious game…when he has time. We saw flashes of his freshman year yesterday, the speed, elusiveness and ability to hit downfield throws. His placement on shorter completions also seemed good. Why doesn’t his talent translate to more Ws? Why, if he’s such a good QB, is he not passing the eye test? Let’s look at 3 popular scapegoats: penalties, O-line youth, bad coaching, and why with them improving, we’re set for a breakout 2021.

Nebraska is 85th in penalty yards per game. We’ve seen calls pull back multiple game-breaking plays this year, no getting around it. False starts, holding calls (no matter how inequitable), and alignment issues have hurt. But you know what team is below us at 87? Clemson. Penalties can be deflating, but they don’t have to be drive-killing the way ours have seemed. What matters is how coaches respond, the aggressiveness and scheming they lean into after a flag puts a kink in their plan. Good coaches can make up for a false start here or there, and better coaches can scheme difficult matchups (double teaming certain pass rushers) to make holding penalties less likely. Our coaches have some learning to do, and if they improve, we’ll see a jump in productivity, and less impact from these sorts of calls.

Speaking of holding, let’s take a quick peek at this O-line again: Jurgens (So.), M Farniok (Sr.), Benhart ([R.Fr](https://R.Fr)), Piper ([R.Fr](https://R.Fr)), Jaimes (Sr.) and for Rutgers, Corcoran (Fr.). Three freshman, a sophomore TE turned center, and a senior. Damn that’s a young line. And yesterday, they didn’t look so bad. That said, our line has struggled in past years. So much so that it’s clearly disrupted the timing of everything from hand-offs, to swing passes, to slants. It’s gotten into Martinez’s head. He misses reads because he can’t put his eyes where they need to be. Coach V always emphasizes the eyes, and without keeping them on the defense, Martinez is missing his defensive body language and motion. It can’t be overemphasized how disruptive that’s been. The root of this, of course, has been the snaps. Jurgens has been the most maligned player on the line, and with good cause. But the center is an incredibly demanding position. It’s unheard of to reposition, THEN START, a player with no prior experience there. A player has to communicate defensive reads, align protection, attend the snap, deliver the snap with 300lb bruisers on their noses, pull for blocks…it’s an insanely difficult position to perform well at the collegiate level. Jurgens clearly struggled in the transition. But the last two games? He’s been noticeably better, and maybe that Rimington talk is slightly less comical. His physical intangibles are there; every announcer sees it, and fans should too. Now that he’s settling in, we’re starting to see the better Martinez emerge, and we may start seeing what Frost has been talking about. Add to him a supporting cast of beefy, physically promising young talents with a good start on experience, and o-line may become a strength once again.

And now coaching. Others will know significantly more on this topic, but what a layman can see is that our coaches put us in tough spots. We don’t ride our hot hands (Mills). We don’t advantage our mismatches (TE’s, Wandale) like we could. We put speed where power should go (Wandale up in the middle?). We don’t seem to make second half adjustments. People can pick bones with Verduzco, Austin, Frost. I think some are fair. Whatever the schemes are, whatever the game plans, the coaches aren’t taking stock of the realities of the day and adjusting. They too often seem to force their square wills into round holes. They rely on each head-to-head matchup going perfectly for results to manifest. And that will work for the championship teams, but not us, not yet. But maybe there’s something to be said for not accepting less…maybe the championship mindset demands nothing short of imposing your will, even when it doesn’t work. That remains to be seen. But I defer to the person who’s won a natty, because I certainly haven’t.

All said, with each scapegoat resolving or having reasonable explanations toward resolution, Martinez’s performance seems bound for improvement. We’ve seen improved line play ground our defense and provide a huge leap forward. With the solidification of our o-line, and improved consistency, Martinez is going to be able to keep his eyes where they need to be, make better reads, respond to defensive looks and let his natural talents manifest themselves. Our receivers are often open. We have near 7 ft tight ends in single coverage just begging to be given a chance. We have young talented receivers on campus, that just haven’t been able to participate yet due to covid/unexplained reasons. Once they’re full health? Oof. This offense will quicken given that extra second after the snap. Our personnel across the board will start aligning with our game plan. The game will slow down as we start to impose our plan, without being held back by bad snaps and bad alignments. I think 2021 is when it starts coming together.

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