SP+, Nebraska, and the B1G West

Disclaimer: SP+ is not a perfect system (none are), but it’s a helpful statistical ranking when determining a team’s quality. I don’t have access to this year’s finals but i know that Nebraska finished 31 overall (which is our best finish since 2014, Bo’s last year where we finished at 29) and that the only top 25 finishes from the West this year were Iowa at 10th and Wisconsin at 13th.

 

The B1G west has finished 15-5 in bowls the last five seasons. Which is the best of any division and second place really isn’t close (SEC west 18-10). This got me thinking that some of our progress has probably been shrouded by the overall progression of the B1G West.

I got to looking at some of the historical SP+ data and here’s what I found:

The average SP+ ranking in the B1G west excluding Nebraska has increased almost like clock work since 2012. I decided to look at Frost’s last two years, plus Riley’s tenure, and then also Bo’s final 3 years.

 

Average SP+ ranking in B1G West excluding NEB:

2018-2019 (Frost): 46.3

2015-2017 (Riley): 53.7

2012-2014 (Bo): 60.8

Average NEB SP+ under each coach during same period:

Frost (including 2020): 45

Riley: 44.3

Bo: 26.3

 

So in conclusion, the B1G west has improved which has made progress for Nebraska in the W-L column harder. But overall we are statistically improving and with a few adjustments (some better coaching/decisions) we could be a top 20 team. Frost has managed to increase our SP+ ranking despite his record (inherited a 62nd ranked squad that now finished 31st), whereas Riley’s teams continually dropped while he was here (inherited a 29th ranked squad and was fired with a team ranked 62). Bo had some decent teams and he should’ve been able to do more with them as the division wasn’t nearly as good his last two years as it is now.

Sources:

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ncaa/sp/overall/2012

https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/28497018/final-sp+-rankings-2019-college-football-season

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