Some positive Nebrasketball-A&M matchup stats for yall

I’ve seen a lot of people discouraged by the matchup, and solely because of A&Ms offensive rebounding numbers. And I do get that, but here’s some Pro-Husker stats to ease your tummies

I’ll start with an opinion. While I agree that A&M rebounds well offensively, I generally think that there’s more important things come tournament time. In my opinion, with the way the game is played now, teams win games in the dance by:

1: Winning 3p battle

2: Making your free throws

3: Winning turnovers

• A&M is really, really bad at 2 of those things. And they’re pretty much even on turnovers. They turn teams over on 14% of possessions and turn it over themselves on 15%. Nebraska turns teams over 12% and turns it over 10.5%

• Another thing to consider is since Nebraska went big with Brice/Keisei/Gary/Allick/Mast, Nebraskas defensive//offensive rebound rate has improved. Not by much, but by about 35 spots. From 224 to 189. There’s also about a 50 rank difference between 29.0% and 30.0% which is where Nebraska is and about 100 spot difference between 28.0 and 30.0z Nebraska has only played 2 teams in the top 50 of offensive rebound %, Purdue is #8, Illinois is #17

• A&M makes their FT at 5% less than Nebraska does. A&M is 230th in FT rate. Nebraska is 52nd. Wade Taylor makes 84% of his FT, but skipping walkons and end of bench guys, A&Ms next best 3 FT shooters in their rotation shoot directly at 70% (.709, .708, .705) everyone else is below 70%. Nebraska has 4 guys over 83% (CJ, Keisei, Brice, Reink) and Jaymar shoots at 75%. This is an obvious advantage for NU. A&M gets to the line 24 times per game, but they also give up 18. Nebraska shoots 19 per game and gives up 17. So if trends hold, it should be about even, with the advantage to NU

The difference to me is going to be here:

• Can Nebraska force A&M to take contested jumpers from outside. As a team A&M only shoots 28% from 3. Nebraska only allows 31% from 3. That’s pretty good. A&M has 4 guys that have shot 100 threes or more. Their percentages are:

31%

30%

27%

24%

Their 2 best shooters are 8-18 and 17-45 on the season. And that’s from 2 end of rotation guys. Wade Taylor, their best player, shoots 31% but on 8 threes a game. If they force A&M to shoot and miss shots, and Nebraska crashes glass, they’ve got a really good shot

• A&M also doesn’t defend well from outside. They allow 33% from 3. Nebraska has 4 guys with 100 or more. 5 if you count lawrence who has taken 99. Their totals are:

Wilcher: 40%

Williams. .392%

Keisei: 37%

Lawrence: 36%

Mast: 34%

Gary shoots at 30%. That’s essentially what Nebraska is going up against x 4. I love Gary, but I’m guessing other teams would live with him shooting jumpers most of the time

This is gonna be a tough matchup. But the key to Nebraska is simple:

Play your style of basketball. Rebound the ball. Contain Wade Taylor. Do those things and they’re gonna be alright