You know how it goes every year: a team comes from out of nowhere to have a surprisingly good season.
In the Big Ten, it happened last year with Indiana, which used the overtime win in Week 1 over Penn State as something of a springboard into its best season in 30 years. Penn State had it in 2016 when it beat Ohio State after having already lost two games that season — the Nittany Lions ultimately won the conference as a result.
Conversely, a loss could be a springboard to disaster as it could spiral a season out of control. That’s why certain games on the schedule are season-defining — especially if they’re surrounded by other important games.
With that in mind, this is each game that has incredible pertinence for each Big Ten team, as they could make-or-break the 2021 season for each program.
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Buy, sell or hold? Long-term outlook on each Big Ten team
Oct 24, 2020; East Lansing, Michigan, USA; Michigan State Spartans quarterback Rocky Lombardi (12) gets tackled by Rutgers Scarlet Knights defensive back Lawrence Stevens (29) during the third quarter at Spartan Stadium. Photo: Raj Mehta-USA TODAY Sports
Week 6 vs. Michigan State
Last year, Rutgers surprised many in college football by going to East Lansing and taking down Sparty in Week 1. The first time is a surprise, but a second time? That would be a trend. The Scarlet Knights open the 2021 season with nonconference games against Temple, Syracuse and Delaware before taking on Michigan and Ohio State. While in previous years I would have been skeptical about how Rutgers would do in the first two weeks against a good Group of 5 team, a middling Power Five team and a very good FCS team, this year I feel like there’s a good chance that RU is 3-0 going into the Big Ten schedule. I’m not confident that it’ll get past Michigan and there’s zero chance it will beat Ohio State. So, I envision it will be a 3-2 Rutgers team hosting a questionable team from East Lansing with its back against the wall a little bit. If the Scarlet Knights can get a second-consecutive win over MSU, assuming the record is as I predicted above, then they’d just have to get two of Northwestern, Illinois and Maryland to get to a bowl game — which would be a huge step in the right direction.
Photo: Rich Barnes-USA TODAY Sports
Week 5 vs. Iowa
Maryland went 2-3 in 2020, but it managed to beat what was thought to be a decent Minnesota team as well as Penn State. Given the abbreviated nature of last season as well as inconsistent play overall, it’s difficult to know precisely what the Terps will be in 2021. While the season opener against West Virginia could be a challenge, the Terrapins take on Howard, Illinois and Kent State in subsequent weeks. There’s a strong chance that Maryland could be 4-0 heading into a tough matchup against what I think will be a very strong Iowa team. We’ve seen this script before — the Terps start out strong but lose to the first good Big Ten team it faces, like in 2019 against Penn State. If Maryland manages to start 5-0, it would be a sign that Mike Locksley truly has turned things around in College Park.
Purdue Boilermakers
(Photo by Michael Hickey/Getty Images)
Week 3 vs. Notre Dame
I’ve been pretty open in that I have little-to-no faith in Purdue right now. While there are a few nice pieces in West Lafayette, there are very few teams in the Big Ten that I just don’t think have a chance to do much of anything. The good news is: the Boilermakers can prove me wrong in just the third week of the season when it goes on the road to Notre Dame. Now, let’s be clear about one thing: early-season wins over the Fighting Irish have long been a faulty barometer for how good a team may or may not be, but I have little faith in Oregon State or UConn — Purdue’s first two opponents in 2021 — so if it could somehow go to South Bend and get the upset, it would be a season-changing situation that could set up the Boilermakers to have more of a 2018-looking season compared to 2019 and beyond.
Dec 12, 2020; Evanston, Illinois, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini quarterback Brandon Peters (18) looks to pass against the Northwestern Wildcats during the first half at Ryan Field. Photo: David Banks-USA TODAY Sports
Week 0 vs. Nebraska
I have the least amount of faith of any Big Ten team in Illinois, and while I have a ton of respect for Bret Bielema, I’m not confident that he’ll be able to do much of anything to change the tides in Champaign. So, to me, the biggest thing for the Illini is starting the season out on the right foot: getting a season-opening win against a Big Ten opponent when you’ll likely be on the national stage with a Week 0 game. Now, the Huskers have been floundering themselves, so this wouldn’t necessarily be a signature win for Illinois as much as it would be setting the standard after a few really disappointing seasons. Really, just starting out on the right foot is as much as you can ask for.
Northwestern Wildcats
Photo: Isaiah Hole
Week 1 vs. Michigan State
While Northwestern is not undergoing a head coaching change like Illinois, the same ideals apply here, especially because of defensive coordinator Mike Hankwitz retiring and there being a lot of personnel turnover. I will say, it’s a lot easier to overcome a season-opening loss by stringing together a couple wins — which the Wildcats’ schedule sets up well for with Indiana State, Duke, Ohio, Nebraska and Rutgers after the first week — but the best case scenario for Northwestern is to start out strong and keep the ball rolling downhill. Usually, NU has no problem with Michigan State — even when MSU is quite good — but last year, Northwestern was good and the Spartans were not, yet it was the team in East Lansing that walked away with the upset victory. It’s a big game for both teams and if the Wildcats can get revenge, it could prove to the conference that it’s ready to make a second-consecutive trip to Indianapolis, regardless of all of the questions posed above.
Iowa Hawkeyes
Photo: Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports
Week 2 vs. Iowa State
To me, Iowa has the inside track to win the Big Ten West this upcoming season. Though Indiana might end up being a force in the East this year, out of the ‘big three’ on the other side, the Hawkeyes only face Penn State — no Ohio State nor Michigan. But the biggest test comes in the yearly nonconference rivalry tilt against the Cyclones. Iowa State looks to be formidable this year, with Matt Campbell having turned down other coaching jobs and with the Brock Purdy/Breece Hall tandem returning. ISU has the look of a team that could win the Big 12 and more this year, so if Iowa can take down its in-state rival in the early going, it could springboard the Hawkeyes to a standout season. Still, win or lose that game, if Iowa takes care of business in the Big Ten schedule, it has a strong chance to make it to Indianapolis, but a win over the Cyclones could help cement a special season.
Nebraska Cornhuskers
Photo: Isaiah Hole
Week 3 vs. Oklahoma
It’s Week 3 and it will be Nebraska’s fourth game as the Huskers play in Week 0, but they will have a huge showdown in Norman taking on the vaunted Oklahoma Sooners. With games at Illinois, as well as hosting Fordham and Buffalo before this big matchup, whether Nebraska is 3-0, 2-1 or 1-2, a win over Oklahoma would be a huge statement and a signature win for Scott Frost. It’s the kind of win that could turn everything around. That said, a loss to the Sooners wouldn’t be the be-all, end-all, but if Nebraska limps into this one 1-2 and then loses to OU, it could spell the beginning of the end in the Scott Frost era — especially since AD Bill Moos was shown the door just this past week.
Michigan State Spartans
Photo: Detroit Free Press
Week 3 vs. Miami (FL)
Mel Tucker revamped the Spartans roster this offseason and while we’ll get an idea in Week 1 against Northwestern what MSU is capable of, the big test will come by heading down to Coral Gables to take on what should be a really, really good Hurricanes team. If the Spartans defense can contain D’Eriq King — who could be a Heisman contender in 2021 — it could provide some confidence for a group that was somewhat middling the past few seasons. Given the uncertainty of the roster in general, with a lot of new faces via the NCAA transfer portal, a win here would certainly be of the signature variety for Tucker and his staff. With Nebraksa, WKU and Rutgers afterwards, it would be a solid springboard for MSU back to relevance.
Minnesota Golden Gophers
Photo: Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports
Week 1 vs. Ohio State
This isn’t even fair, but neither is playing the Buckeyes in Week 1 to open the season. Minnesota looked like a shell of itself in 2020, losing big at home in the season opener to what ended up being a bad Michigan team. If the Gophers want to rebound, there’s no better way than to surprise Ohio State right out of the gates. Of course, OSU is as elite as they come, but there are some really good pieces on Minnesota’s team, including both the offensive and defensive lines as well as quarterback Tanner Morgan. Also, the Buckeyes will be breaking in a new starting quarterback making their first start in this one — so it’s an area of opportunity. Now, this is still a likely loss, but even a close loss would be a win for Minnesota here. A win would ensure that every other team on the Gophers’ schedule would be incredibly wary about the team in Minneapolis.
Indiana Hoosiers
Photo: Trevor Ruszkowski-USA TODAY Sports
Week 3 vs. Cincinnati
This is actually a surprisingly good matchup. The Hoosiers enter 2021 after an incredible 2020 where it beat both Penn State and Michigan for the first time since the 1980s and kept things close with Ohio State. Though it has a tough opener against Iowa, it’s this matchup against Cincinnati that piques my attention. The Bearcats under Luke Fickell nearly beat Georgia in the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl last year and return most of its talent from 2020. It’s a home game for the Hoosiers against what will likely be a battle between top 25 teams when this one takes place. Win and IU will have momentum towards replicating last season’s success. Lose and things could get out of hand in a hurry.
Wisconsin Badgers
Photo: Robert Hanashiro-USA TODAY Sports
Week 4 vs. Notre Dame
Wisconsin was not very good last year when all things were said and done, and the schedule is a little tougher than usual. Not only do the Badgers face Michigan — yet again — but it also has Penn State on the schedule in the season opener and has this big matchup at Soldier Field against Notre Dame. I was tempted to make the Penn State game the one, but a win over the Irish would help propel the narrative that the West still runs through Madison. With that in mind, at least as far as morale is concerned, if the Badgers lose the opener to the Nittany Lions, taking down the Irish would go a long way to erase that memory and get Wisconsin back on the right track — overall, not just for the season.
Penn State Nittany Lions
Penn State quarterback Sean Clifford (14) looks to pass under pressure from Rutgers defensive lineman Michael Dwumfour during the second half of an NCAA college football game Saturday, Dec. 5, 2020, in Piscataway, N.J. Penn St. won 23-7. (AP Photo/Adam Hunger)
Week 3 vs. Auburn
Penn State started 2020 in the worst possible way before rebounding in the latter third of the season. It won’t get any breaks in 2021 as it opens against Wisconsin and then hosts SEC power Auburn in Week 3. Hypothetically, if the Nittany Lions lose the season opener, it wouldn’t be a good look to also lose to the Tigers at home, especially with Indiana and Iowa coming up in Weeks 5-6. Regardless of what happens in Week 1, PSU needs to help cement the Big Ten over the SEC here in the early going, especially because if it doesn’t, it could be a long season in Happy Valley.
Ohio State Buckeyes
Ohio State Buckeyes safety Josh Proctor (41) celebrates after a stop during the first quarter of a NCAA Division I football game between the Ohio State Buckeyes and the Indiana Hoosiers on Saturday, Nov. 21, 2020 at Ohio Stadium in Columbus, Ohio.
Week 2 vs. Oregon
Really, in my eyes, no one truly poses much of a threat to Ohio State in the regular season, but if anyone does, it’s Oregon. What I love about college football is less the in-conference matchups as nonconference, because you never really know how teams in different conferences are going to match up against each other. To some degree, I do think the Ducks are very overrated, and they’ll be playing at 9 a.m. their time in this one, but it’ll be a game of national relevance, and the Buckeyes will only be on their second game with a new quarterback and a lot of unfamiliar faces on both sides of the ball. A loss here wouldn’t necessarily derail OSU, but a win would tell us what we already know: Ohio State is elite.
Michigan Wolverines
Photo: Isaiah Hole
Week 5 vs. Wisconsin
A large part of me was inclined to put the Week 2 tilt vs. Washington as the big one, but I feel like Michigan can afford to lose that one if it can manage to get its first win in Madison since 2001. To me, the big thing for the Wolverines isn’t that they haven’t beaten Ohio State — no team in the Big Ten has been able to do that regularly in recent history — it’s that they haven’t cemented themselves as better than Wisconsin and Penn State. In order to at least prove that Michigan is on the right track, it needs less to worry about Washington and more about being able to go into Camp Randall and come away with a hard-fought win — especially because of what happened last year in The Big House. If Michigan can win this game, the perception of the maize and blue will change significantly, regardless of how good or bad Wisconsin is.
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