INDIANAPOLIS – Purdue football improved since last season, raising its across-the-board talent level — and by extension its depth — and further buying into Ryan Walters’ system.
Will its record improve? On the eve of the season, those two questions seem only marginally related.
Based on historical precedent, the Boilermakers face understandable skepticism as to whether they can beat projected playoff teams or win in the most intimidating environs in the Big Ten. Set those five games aside. Set aside also an opener against an in-state FCS opponent.
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To reach bowl eligibility without springing a major upset, Purdue must go 5-1 in those other six games. Preseason camp showed this roster can compete in each of those games. A single off-kilter week, though, completely removes any margin for error.
A 5-7 record may seem pessimistic. This team could be a real nuisance to at least some of those top-10 foes, but also probably won’t catch every break in the more talent-equated matchups.
Here’s what that could look like:
Purdue 38, Indiana State 7: Devin Mockabee and Reggie Love III combine for a quick 150 yards, Will Heldt records his first two sacks of the season and this warm-up goes according to plan.
Notre Dame 35, Purdue 20: This will be a game in the second half. Notre Dame might have one of the five best defenses in the country, though. A Benjamin Morrison pick-six in the third quarter opens this one up.
Purdue 28, Oregon State 24: A massive, massive game for the direction of the Boilermakers’ season. The Beavers have a first-time head coach in Trent Bray and have not yet publicly identified their best quarterback. Hudson Card’s touchdown pass to Jahmal Edrine with under 30 seconds to play gives Walters his second power conference road victory in as many years.
Purdue 27, Nebraska 26: How will a freshman quarterback, even an especially talented one, fare in the face of Walters’ attacking defense? Markevious Bryant’s interception of Dylan Raiola on the Huskers’ final drive — the third for the Boilermakers secondary that day — seals a Big Ten-opening win.
Wisconsin 31, Purdue 21: Look, this losing streak will end sometime. Tyler Van Dyke, though, is better than the average Big Ten quarterback. He’ll throw three touchdowns as the Badgers pull away to an 18th straight win in the series.
Illinois 29, Purdue 23: Walters put a thumping on his old program last season. Here Bret Bielema returns the favor in a potentially season-spoiling win in Champaign. One bright spot: George Burhenn’s 80 yards and a touchdown as a developing second tight end threat.
Oregon 42, Purdue 20: This offense improved, but that doesn’t mean it can win shootouts against playoff teams. Expect the Ducks to come out slow on a short week coming off a huge game against Ohio State. Receivers Tez Johnson and Evan Stewart combine for three touchdowns from Dillon Gabriel in the second half.
Purdue 27, Northwestern 20: Dillon Thieneman’s first punt return touchdown late in the first half flips the momentum. With the Wildcats driving to tie, CJ Madden’s strip sack and Mo Omonode’s recovery stops the midseason losing skid.
Ohio State 48, Purdue 17: Honestly that might mean beating the spread. Buckeyes have a loaded roster and healthy fear of their upset history against the Boilermakers. They score 21 in the first quarter and coast.
Purdue 28, Michigan State 25: Another chance for Walters’ defense to foil a young quarterback in Aidan Chiles. Might also be an opportunity for Card to victimize what has been one of the nation’s worst pass defenses before new coach Jonathan Smith turns things around. Expect a special teams impact on this freaky Friday. I’m thinking punt block touchdown return in the fourth quarter.
Penn State 24, Purdue 10: This improved secondary can handle Drew Allar and the Nittany Lions’ receivers. Abdul Carter’s three sacks, though, help keep the Boilermakers offense from mounting a challenge.
Indiana 32, Purdue 30: Heartbreaker. The Boilermakers see the future with Shamar Rigby’s 120-yard game and Tarrion Grant’s three PBU’s and a pick. But the present slams shut when the Hoosiers — who also won’t be bowl eligible — split the uprights as time expires.
FINAL 2024 RECORD: 5-7
Follow IndyStar Purdue Insider Nathan Baird on X at @nwbaird.
This article originally appeared on Indianapolis Star: Purdue football 2024 predictions: Our game-by-game picks are in
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