With all due respect to this weekend’s game against the Badgers, for all intents and purposes, the 2022 offseason officially got underway last Monday. While I don’t expect the team to phone in the last two games, clearly the focus is now on next season. Nebraska hasn’t beaten Wisconsin or Iowa since 2012 and 2014, respectively, so playing spoiler at this point doesn’t sound so bad.
Moving forward toward next year, Scott Frost will be facing a now-or-never situation in 2022. How did we get to this point? Why hasn’t it worked out for Frost at Nebraska yet?
A few things can be speculated about as to why Frost has struggled. At Central Florida, he went from 0-12 to 13-0 in two seasons – the first time that had been accomplished in the history of college football. He probably showed up to Lincoln a little overconfident and set in his ways. Frost was still quite green as a head coach in 2018. The Husker job was probably still a bit too big for him. We can point to a few different factors that have contributed, but there is one major blunder Frost made when he was hired that made this job a lot more difficult.
Bringing his entire staff with him from UCF was honorable and showed loyalty, but it was also naïve and short-sighted on his part. It proved to be detrimental. There’s a reason why it was referenced so many times when he did it. That’s because it’s just not done. There are coaches who jump from one prominent Power Five school to another and don’t take everyone with them. So you can understand why I was initially critical of Frost bringing an entire Group of Five staff with him to the Big Ten, one of the pillar conferences in college football.
Let’s go back and look at the staff he assembled at UCF and subsequently brought with him to Nebraska two years later:
- Troy Walters, offensive coordinator/wide receivers: Hired away from Colorado, where he had spent three years as the wide receivers coach. Only experience as an offensive coordinator came in one season (2009) at Indiana State.
- Erik Chinander, defensive coordinator: Hired away from Oregon where he had been the outside linebackers coach for two years – his only experience at a Power Five program. No previous coordinator experience.
- Jovan Dewitt, associate head coach/linebackers/special teams: Hired away from Army, where he had been the previous two years. Also coached two years at Florida Atlantic, otherwise his experience was at the FCS, DII and junior college levels.
- Greg Austin, offensive line: Hired away from the Philadelphia Eagles, where he was the assistant O-line coach. Only other coaching experience was three years at Oregon as an intern and graduate assistant.
- Mike Dawson, defensive line: Hired away from the Philadelphia Eagles, where he was the assistant D-line coach. Majority of his coaching experience was at the FCS level. Only FBS experience was three years at Akron (Zips went 14-22) and three years at Boston College (Eagles went 19-19).
- Ryan Held, running backs: Hired away from NE Oklahoma A&M. All of his experience was at the junior college level.
- Mario Verduzco, quarterbacks: Majority of his experience came at the FCS and junior college levels. Only Power Five experience was from 1996-2000 with Rutgers, who went 11-44 during that stretch.
The two other members of his staff, Sean Beckton (tight ends) and Travis Fisher (defensive backs), played at UCF and essentially spent their entire careers coaching at their alma mater. Ironically, they are the two most respected members of his staff.
Oh, and let’s not forget about his strength and conditioning coach, Zach Duval. He has worked at four schools (Buffalo, Wyoming, UCF, Nebraska), with 2021 being his 12th season overall. Only two teams (2013 Buffalo, 2017 UCF) produced winning records. Counting this season, the teams he’s been in charge of training have gone a combined 57-84 (.404 win %). Duval is a huge proponent of “Husker Power” and is a Boyd Epley disciple. His S&C program basically mirrors what the Huskers were doing back in the ’80s and ’90s. While that might spark some nostalgia with fans, the game has changed. Football is no longer played in a phone booth like it was then. Husker players have issues with flexibility and range of motion. That’s a major concern considering the game is wide open and played in space now. There are 130 FBS teams. There aren’t five other programs in the country that adhere to Duval’s training philosophy. There have been so many advancements in S&C, to believe what you did 30 years ago is still relevant is … baffling, to say it nicely.
Look at it this way, if Frost never worked at UCF and Nebraska was his first job, do you think those would have been the coaches he hired? As a first-time head coach at a Group of Five school, you’re not getting your A-list candidates to fill out your staff. The guys he hired at UCF had the sort of résumés you’d expect for that situation. Nothing wrong with that. But could you imagine a coach at any Power Five school in the country hiring an entire staff full of coaches with those backgrounds? What kind of coach at a Power Five school hires a staff that is basically bereft of assistants with experience at any other Power Five schools? A staff with essentially two first-time coordinators. A collective staff with no previous experience in the conference you’re joining and no previous recruiting experience in your 500-mile radius.
Top to bottom, the Big Ten has the best collection of head coaches in college football. It’s no wonder Frost has seemed largely in over his head in most games he coached. It’s one thing to have your inexperienced, yet promising, up-and-coming head coach growing and learning on the job. But when your entire coaching staff is also learning the ropes in a conference like the Big Ten, you see the sort of struggles we’ve seen during Frost’s tenure.
Which begs the question, why didn’t Frost decide to go after some of his A-list guys after he got the Husker job? With the national clout and reputation he had built following the 2017 season, Frost could have gotten just about any assistant coach in the country to take his call. That’s not going to be the case now that he’s taxed with hiring a new offensive staff. He’s squarely on the hot seat and his coaching star isn’t as bright as it was four years ago.
But here we are. Frost, essentially, is getting a mulligan to assemble an offensive staff fitting the caliber of the Big Ten. He’s alluded to taking more of a CEO approach going forward, but I’m skeptical. His transition into that role wasn’t exactly organic. If it wasn’t an ultimatum from Trev Alberts, it certainly feels like a compromise on Frost’s part. I don’t think he was ready to change up the dynamic in that way, at least not yet. He needs to show tangible progress on the field, and more importantly, in the win column next year. Can he be hands-off in that situation?
Can Frost leave the offense in someone else’s hands, even if his fate will largely be tied to its success or failure? He’s never wanted to relinquish those duties, even when he’s known it was detrimental. “Frankly, I’ve been wearing myself thin trying to run the offense and call the offense,” Frost admitted last week. “It’s not just game day, it’s all week long. There are probably areas of the program that I could spend more time with if I wasn’t so occupied with that. (Alberts) talked to me about that, and I agree.”
This offseason, Frost needs to take a long, hard, difficult look at himself. He needs to delve into the bones of his program. Really take stock of every minute detail of what he’s been doing and how he’s been doing it. Figure out what he needs to tweak and where he needs to improve. His program needs a reboot and a fresh approach.
Despite all the issues he’s facing and the criticism he’s taking, Frost has a chance to change the perception of his program heading into the offseason. It all starts with the offensive coordinator position. If he manages to make a “wow” hire, people will be more optimistic moving forward. Nebraska still represents an attractive opportunity for a coach to come in and prove himself. The right guy could come in, showcase his offense, and be a part of the turnaround. Heck, he’d get the bulk of the credit. That’s a nice résumé builder. A coach could conceivably come in and use the opportunity to take a step up the coaching rung toward a head coaching job in the near future.
That’s the sort of sell job Frost needs to make. Allowing his new coordinator to have a say in how the rest of the staff is filled is likely going to be a big selling point as well. A prominent, proven guy will want that input.
I believe Alberts will do everything he can on his end (financially) to help Frost get the right guy in place. Most assistant coaches get two-year contracts, but I suspect it may take a three-year deal to get a prominent coach to consider leaving a stable gig to come to Lincoln. Despite what some may believe, the Nebraska athletic department isn’t exactly strapped for cash. With the relief gained from Frost restructuring his contact, Alberts should be willing to agree to a contract in the neighborhood of three years for a total of $4 million – for the right coach.
So what direction does Frost go? That’s the big question. “We’re early in the stages of identifying people,” Frost said last week of potential candidates. “I have a pretty good idea of what I want it to look like, and we’ll see where we land. If I’m going to turn it over to somebody, I just need somebody that’s done it and that I can trust to put our heads together and put the best of what they do with the best of what we do and let him run with it.”
That’s the approach he should have taken when he got to Nebraska in 2018. Is he truly ready to do that now? With his job squarely on the line in 2022, is he going to do the comfortable thing and hire someone who has similar philosophical viewpoints? Will we see him hire a guy like Mark Helfrich, his former boss at Oregon, who is currently an analyst for Fox Sports? Helfrich is another branch off the Chip Kelly tree. Turning the offense over to someone like that would be easy. Is it the right move, though?
I think Frost should go in another direction. Every good coaching staff promotes a collaborative culture. It’s beneficial to have coaches with various, if not complementary schematic backgrounds who have taught and defended against different schemes.
When Frost saw the regression in his offense in 2019 and decided to fire Troy Walters, he chose to double down on his core philosophy and hired Matt Lubick, when a fresh set of ideas would have benefited the offense’s growth. Hopefully, Frost learned from that mistake and is sincere in wanting to hire the best possible candidate, even if that means they aren’t of the same mind.
Does Frost target a coach who might be defined as a reclamation project? Someone who has had recent success at a high level but is now climbing their way back up the ladder? Chip Long had a nice run at Notre Dame from 2017-19 and was a finalist for the Broyles Award in 2018. He’s finishing his first year at Tulane after spending last season as an offensive quality-control analyst at Tennessee. How about Kirk Ciarrocca? He was a longtime assistant for PJ Fleck, dating back to their time at Western Michigan. He orchestrated a balanced attack with the Gophers and was a semifinalist for the Broyles Award in 2019. He left to join James Franklin’s staff at Penn State in 2020 but was fired after the Nittany Lions underperformed during the abbreviated COVID season. He’s currently an offensive analyst at West Virginia and has received a lot of praise for his work with the Mountaineers. There’s some scuttlebutt Neal Brown plans to promoted him to coordinator.
Frost could also pluck someone out of the lower ranks. Frank Cignetti Jr. (Boston College), Brian Lindgren (Oregon State), Andrew Sowder (Kent State), Brad Glenn (Georgia State), Garrett Riley (SMU), Charlie Weis Jr. (South Florida) and Mike Bloesch (North Texas) are all intriguing options. But I think Frost should aim higher. He needs immediate results and needs to bank on a coach who has already produced at a high level.
Two ideal candidates would be Alabama’s Bill O’Brien and Oregon’s Joe Moorhead. Both are bright offensive minds who have had success in the Big Ten and are thriving at their current schools. Neither would leave where they’re at to join Frost at Nebraska, however. Both are well compensated and are already on the precipice of getting another head coaching opportunity.
Would Frost target a guy like Dan Mullen if he’s fired at Florida? He should. If he has the financial okay from Alberts, as I suspect, he should swing for the fences. He should be targeting the best in the business. Guys like Jeff Lebby (Ole Miss), Andy Ludwig (Utah), Dan Enos (Maryland), Jeff Grimes (Baylor), Mike Bobo (Auburn), Phil Longo (North Carolina), Todd Monken (Georgia), Darrell Dickey (Texas A&M) and Mike Yurich (Penn State). Are they longshots, absolutely, but you miss 100% of the shots you don’t take.
I’ve identified four coaches who I think would be home run hires. I looked for coaches who run a scheme that could be blended with Frost’s core principals, and more importantly, be successful in the Big Ten as-is. They also could be incentivized into leaving their current school for Nebraska.
The first is Wake Forest’s Warren Ruggiero. He’s been with Dave Clawson since 2009 when the pair were at Bowling Green. Since arriving in Winston-Salem in 2014, Ruggiero has evolved his offense and has developed one of the best RPO-based systems in the country. Over the past five seasons, the Demon Deacons are averaging 280 yards passing and 185 yards rushing, while putting up 36 ppg.
The next two coaches are guys I’ve been fans of for a long time. I mentioned them both when Frost arrived at Nebraska in 2018, and feel even more confident they’d be good fits after their continued success since that time. Rhett Lashley is in his second season at Miami. He’s a disciple of Gus Malzahn, whose offense shares many of the same core beliefs as Frost’s. Lashlee has put his own stamp on Malzahn’s system. He chose to leave Auburn after the 2016 season so he could evolve as a coach. He spent a season at Connecticut and then two at SMU before Manny Diaz brought him to Coral Gables. His offense is a Power Spread system that meshes what he learned under Malzahn and uses passing principles taken from the Air Raid system he learned at SMU under Sonny Dykes. The 38-year-old Lashlee is widely considered one of the best young, up-and-coming coaches in the country. The Hurricanes recently fired their athletic director, Blake James, and most feel Diaz will be next. Which means Lashlee will become one of the most sought-after coordinators on the market.
I’m also a big fan of Kendal Briles, currently in his second year at Arkansas. He runs an up-tempo veer-and-shoot offense that has produced at a high level and been extremely successful everywhere he’s been. Whether its been Arkansas (SEC), Baylor (Big 12) or Florida State (ACC), he has put up huge numbers. He’s also an ace recruiter with strong ties in Texas and the southeast. He makes $1 million in Fayetteville, but the 38-year-old Briles has shown a willingness to leave for a better, if not unique situation. Like Lashlee, he’s considered a rising star in the profession.
The guy who I think would be the best hire, and perhaps the most ambitious, would be Tom Herman, who is currently an offensive analyst and special projects coach for the Chicago Bears. Herman has a similar coaching story as Frost. Both were extremely successful coordinators prior to getting an opportunity at a Group of Five school. Herman made a name for himself as offensive coordinator at Iowa State (2009-11) and then Ohio State (2012-14) before his brilliant turnaround as head coach at Houston, where he was 22-4 in two years. He had a respectable 32-18 record in four years at Texas before the school let him go following the 2020 season. Herman’s offensive philosophy is referred to as Smashmouth Spread. I’d imagine that’s music to the ears of most fans. Essentially, in his offense, he likes to employ a system that features downhill running but from the shotgun-spread formation. There is a lot of play action, often from RPOs, and vertical strikes down the field. He’s a remarkable recruiter with ties in Texas and the Big Ten footprint.
History has shown these staff overhauls typically do not pan out, but Frost can give himself a puncher’s chance to buck that trend with the right hire. When he first arrived at Nebraska, at his introductory press conference, he was asked how he would modify his offensive system to adjust to the competition in the Big Ten. “I’m hoping the Big Ten has to modify their system for us,” Frost infamously said. That comment drew loud cheers from the group of current and former players and administration who were in attendance. His bravado and confidence were inspiring at the time, but those are poignant words four years later. Not only has the Big Ten largely rendered his offense impotent, but he’s been the one who has failed to modify his system to compete in the conference. He’s either been too stubborn or, even worse, has been without answers on how to adapt.
This new hire and his transition into a CEO role could turn the tide of his current trajectory at Nebraska. These are important times ahead for Frost, and big decisions to make.
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