No matter what happens in the final two weeks of the regular season, conference newcomer Oregon will play in the Big Ten Football Championship Game. The conference announced Tuesday that the Ducks have clinched a spot in the Dec. 7 game in Indianapolis.
“Following a comprehensive evaluation of all possible scenarios over the final two weeks of regular-season play across the conference’s 18 teams, there are no conditions whereby the Ducks do not finish No. 1 or No. 2,” the Big Ten’s announcement stated.
The Ducks will face Indiana, Ohio State or Penn State for the league title. Unlike the three other contenders, Oregon has just one game remaining and can finish with no more than one loss. Still, even in scenarios involving three-way or four-way ties for first place, Oregon already has its ticket to Indy punched due to various tiebreakers.
Still controlling their own destiny at the moment are Indiana and Ohio State. Win out, and they’re in. But only one of them can do that, since they’re facing each other Saturday in Columbus. Penn State’s only hope is that the unbeaten Hoosiers lose twice and Ohio State gets upset by Michigan.
Oregon, ranked No. 1 in the major polls and in the College Football Playoff standings, is idle this week before closing the regular season at home against Washington (6-5, 4-4 B1G). Indiana finishes with games at Ohio State and at home against Purdue (1-9, 0-7). The Buckeyes, after hosting the Hoosiers, stay home for their annual grudge match against Michigan (5-5, 3-4). Penn State travels to Minnesota (6-4, 4-3) this weekend before finishing at home against Maryland (4-6, 1-6).
Nebraska played two of the contenders this season, with vastly contrasting results. The Huskers were blown out by Indiana, 56-7, on Oct. 19, but a week later they held a fourth-quarter lead over Ohio State before falling, 21-17.
Below are the 10 scenarios the Big Ten used to make its determination about the Oregon, as well as who the Ducks would face in the championship game.
Current Standings
• Oregon 8-0
• Indiana 7-0
• Ohio State 6-1
• Penn State 6-1
Scenario #1
• Oregon and Indiana finish 9-0
• Penn State finishes 8-1
• Ohio State finishes 7-2
OUTCOME: Indiana and Oregon earn berths in champ game with No. 1 and No. 2 designations determined following final game of the season based on highest cumulative conference winning percentage of all conference opponents.
Scenario #2
• Oregon finishes 9-0
• Indiana and Penn State finish 8-1 (both lost to OSU)
• Ohio State finishes 7-2 (losses to ORE and MICH)
OUTCOME: Oregon earns outright berth as No. 1 seed. The No. 2 seed will be determined by highest cumulative conference winning percentage of all conference opponents at the end of the season for IND and PSU.
Scenario #3
• Oregon finishes 9-0
• Indiana and Penn State finish 8-1 (PUR def. IND, OSU def. PSU)
• Ohio State finishes 7-2 (losses to ORE and IND)
OUTCOME: Oregon earns outright berth as No. 1 seed. Indiana earns berth as No. 2 seed due to win vs. common opponent with Penn State (IND def. OSU, OSU def. PSU)
Scenario #4
• Oregon finishes 9-0
• Indiana, Ohio State and Penn State finish 8-1 (OSU def. IND, ORE def. OSU, OSU def. PSU)
OUTCOME: Oregon earns outright berth as No. 1 seed. Ohio State earns berth as No. 2 seed due to head-to-head wins vs. both Indiana and Penn State.
Scenario #5
• Indiana finishes 9-0
• Oregon and Penn State finish 8-1 (WASH def. ORE, OSU def. PSU)
• Ohio State finishes 7-2 (losses to IND and ORE)
OUTCOME: Indiana earns outright berth as No. 1 seed. Oregon earns berth as No. 2 seed due to win vs. common opponent ranked highest in standings (OSU).
Scenario #6
• Ohio State, Oregon and Penn State finish 8-1 (ORE def. OSU, WASH def. ORE, OSU def. PSU)
• Indiana finishes 7-2 (losses to OSU and PUR)
OUTCOME: Ohio State earns first berth due to highest cumulative conference winning percentage of all conference opponents. Oregon earns second berth due to win vs. common opponent with Penn State (OSU; ORE def. OSU, OSU def. PSU). Oregon would be No. 1 seed and Ohio State would be No. 2 seed due to head-to-head result.
Scenario #7
• Indiana, Oregon and Penn State finish 8-1 (PUR def. IND, WASH def. ORE, OSU def. PSU)
• Ohio State finishes 7-2 (losses to ORE and IND)
OUTCOME: Indiana and Oregon earn berths due to win vs. common opponent ranked highest in standings (OSU; IND and ORE def. OSU, OSU def. PSU). Indiana would be No. 1 seed and Oregon would be No. 2 seed (of common opponents that IND and ORE lost to, WASH ranked higher than PUR in conference standings; IND def. WASH and WASH def. ORE).
Scenario #8
• Indiana, Ohio State and Oregon finish 8-1 (OSU def. IND, ORE def. OSU, WASH def. ORE)
• Penn State finishes 7-2 (losses to OSU and either MINN/MD)
OUTCOME: Ohio State earns first berth due to highest cumulative conference winning percentage of all conference opponents. Oregon earns second berth due to win vs. common opponent with Indiana (OSU; ORE def. OSU, OSU def. IND). Oregon would be No. 1 seed and Ohio State would be No. 2 seed due to head-to-head result.
Scenario #9
• Indiana, Ohio State, Oregon and Penn State finish 8-1 (OSU def. IND; ORE def. OSU; ORE lost to WASH; OSU def. PSU)
OUTCOME: Ohio State earns first berth due to highest cumulative conference winning percentage of all conference opponents. Oregon earns second berth due to win vs. common opponent ranked highest in standings (OSU; ORE def. OSU, OSU def. PSU). Oregon would be No. 1 seed and Ohio State would be No. 2 seed due to head-to-head result.
Scenario #10
• Oregon finishes 9-0 or 8-1
• Penn State finishes 8-1 (lost to OSU)
• Indiana and Ohio State finish 7-2 (IND lost to OSU and PUR; OSU lost to ORE and MICH)
OUTCOME: Oregon and Penn State earn berths into champ game. Oregon earns No. 1 seed due to win vs. common opponent ranked highest in conference standings (OSU; ORE def. OSU; OSU def. PSU)
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