No. 5 Ohio State heads to the westernmost part of the Big Ten this week, where it looks to stay undefeated in conference play by beating Nebraska. The Buckeyes have won six straight since losing at home to Oregon in the second game and face a tricky spot in Lincoln.
While Nebraska is only 3-6 on the season, the Cornhuskers have been better than that record suggests. Unfortunately, there isn’t much history between these two storied programs to suggest that the Huskers will be able to prove that this weekend. Ohio State and Nebraska have met nine times, and Ohio State has won eight. Nebraska’s lone win in the series came in the first meeting between the two schools as Big Ten members back in 2011. That’s when Bo Pelini’s Cornhuskers knocked off Luke Fickell’s Buckeyes 34-27 in Memorial Stadium.
The rest of their time in the Big Ten has been very much in Ohio State’s favor. Not only have the Buckeyes won the six meetings since, but they’ve also won them by an average of 34.5 points per game.
Ohio State vs. Nebraska: Need to know
Ohio State fans shouldn’t worry about where they’re ranked: It wasn’t difficult to ascertain how important the College Football Playoff committee views head-to-head matchups at this point of the season. When you look up and down the entire top 25, you see teams that beat other teams ranked ahead of them if their records are close. That’s why Oregon is ranked No. 4 while Ohio State is No. 5, because no matter how each team has looked since (or who Oregon lost to), that Ducks win has to matter. Of course, should Ohio State win out and pick up wins against Michigan, Michigan State and the Big Ten West winner along the way, that Oregon win over Ohio State will become less important. And that’s assuming the Ducks win out too.
The Ohio State offense is elite: While Georgia has separated itself from the rest of the college football world by appearing to be the only elite team on both sides of the ball, this Ohio State offense has been exceptional. The Buckeyes rank third nationally in offensive success rate, third in points per possession, and third in Offensive EPA. Perhaps most importantly, like a good breakfast, the offense is well-balanced. Ohio State’s passing EPA ranks seventh nationally while its Rushing EPA ranks seventh. In other words, you can’t take one thing away because the Buckeyes can do it all, which is what makes them so difficult to beat.
Nebraska has made an art form out of losing games it should win: I mentioned earlier how Nebraska is a better team than its record suggests, which is always a strange statement. Your record is your record, and it’s the only thing that counts, but if you look at some of the more advanced metrics, most teams with Nebraska’s output are 5-4 or 6-3, not 3-6. So what’s the problem? Well, in short, it’s dumb mistakes. The Huskers rank 17th in Offensive EPA and 40th in Defensive EPA. That’s the mark of a good team! The problem is the Huskers have been terrible on special teams and have killed themselves with penalties (126th in EPA) and turnovers (94th in turnover margin). While you could say this is just bad luck, part of the problem is that it’s been a constant theme throughout Scott Frost’s tenure with the program.
How to watch Ohio State vs. Nebraska live
Date: Saturday, November 6 | Time: 12 p.m. ET
Location: Memorial Stadium — Lincoln, Nebraska
TV: Fox | Live stream: fuboTV (Try for free)
Ohio State vs. Nebraska prediction, picks
I see this game playing out two ways. Either Ohio State cruises to a dominating victory in which this game is over by halftime, or the Huskers stick around and nearly make things interesting. In the end, I’m taking the Huskers and the points for a simple reason. They lose close. None of Nebraska’s three wins have come by fewer than 25 points this season, and all six of its losses have been one-score losses. I think they do enough things well offensively to pose some problems for an Ohio State defense that has holes to keep it respectable more often than not. Prediction: Nebraska (+15)
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