The new 12-team College Football Playoff will change the sport, in part because programs that never truly had a chance to make the four-team field will be in the mix but also because it will shift the way success is defined. For some, making the CFP field is a huge accomplishment. Others will need to earn the right to host games on campus or secure a first-round bye. And then there are teams like Ohio State and Georgia — where it’s a national championship or bust.
Ahead of the craziness to come in a college football season unlike any other, Rushing The Field co-hosts and college football experts Nicole Auerbach and Joshua Perry made their preseason CFP picks and postseason award predictions.
Nicole Auerbach’s preseason picks:
Man, this was a tough exercise. It’s so hard to predict not just the conference champions but also the next-best teams in each league — and then determine how I think they’ll compare to one another. Unsurprisingly, I went with a bunch of SEC and Big Ten teams. After a brief blip, Georgia should be the best team in college football again this year, and I expect the Dawgs to take care of business (or at least take two of three) against Alabama, Texas and Ole Miss in the regular season to essentially lock up the top CFP seed. The Big Ten race will be tighter, but I’m giving the edge to Oregon because, well, you can see how much I trust these Ducks overall. So, that means Ohio State will host a first-round game at the ‘Shoe, which will be awesome. And I’ve got Michigan as my third Big Ten team — despite its difficult schedule — because it has one of the best defensive fronts in the country (and it’s hard to trust Penn State to get over the hump when the Nittany Lions haven’t yet done it).
This will be the year that Miami actually lives up to its hype, with a roster that’s one of the best in the nation on paper and one of the best quarterbacks in the country in Cam Ward. Clemson will return to the CFP as an at-large after a three-year hiatus by being the best of the rest in a muddled ACC. Utah will win the Big 12 in Year 1, though it’ll be the only representative from a conference that has a lot of teams capable of beating one another but not ready to chase national championships. Boise State will emerge out of the Mountain West and secure the Group of 5 champion spot ahead of Liberty and others with weaker schedules. The remaining at-large spots will go to Notre Dame, which has a very manageable schedule this season, and a trio of other SEC teams in Texas, Ole Miss and Missouri. The Tigers are a bit of a dark horse, but I do love that receiver group. And I like that schedule.
Previewing every team in the Big Ten ahead of a season unlike any other in college football.
Ultimately, I think Oregon and Georgia will take care of business and set up a monster clash in the title game. Two of the best quarterbacks in the country will take on two of the most physical and athletic defenses. Mentor vs. mentee on the sideline. I’ll give the edge to the Ducks because I think they’ve got the better quarterback in Dillon Gabriel and a more creative offensive play caller in Will Stein, who will solve the problems poised by the Dawgs. In doing so, Dan Lanning will join the elite group of active coaches with a national title, as Oregon wins its first-ever football national championship (and likely celebrates by building four new football buildings).
Joshua Perry’s preseason picks:
Georgia, Ohio State, Clemson and Utah all get first round byes as power conference champs. I think UGA is ready to return to the top of the SEC. There are relative questions on defense, but Carson Beck is a stud and Kirby Smart is the best coach in the game. He shows it this year. As for the Buckeyes, they have title-or-bust aspirations. Ryan Day invested heavily in his coaching staff, and also spent money in the portal to get impact players like Will Howard and Caleb Downs. I could see them losing on the road to Oregon in the regular season, but getting a win over the Ducks (or another opponent) in Indy. Turning to Clemson, they’re a “safe” pick for me in the ACC. As we saw in Florida State’s loss to Georgia Tech, forecasting this conference won’t be easy. So, I’m falling back on what I know. This is a top-ten roster from a talent standpoint with a veteran QB and one of two active coaches with multiple national championships. The Tigers will survive the choppy waters. Finally, Utah is the Big 12 champ for me. Kyle Whittingham can coach, and now he’s in a more balanced conference. Having a QB as old as me helps too.
Oregon is the best of the at-large teams. They have a favorable schedule, and I wouldn’t be shocked to see them go 12-0. I am leaning toward Ohio State winning a potential rematch in Indy, but Oregon is a playoff lock for me. Ole Miss turns heads as well. Lane Kiffin has Jaxson Dart back at QB and he finally appears to have a defense. They make noise in the SEC. Notre Dame just needs to avoid the surprising losses that disrupted their last two seasons to cement their spot. Texas doesn’t get help from their schedule. I also worry about the Longhorns’ depth at running back and wonder about how much their defense has improved, but they’re talented enough to earn an at-large bid. Penn State, your table is set. After years of being on the outside looking in, your time is now with a friendly schedule in the expanded CFP system. Welcome to the Playoff. Alabama has high expectations with a new leader in Kalen DeBoer and I think they stumble, relatively. They’ll be a 10-seed instead of a first round bye. Miami is the second team from the ACC. Mario Cristobal converts his roster from a collection of talented players to a team that can compete. Liberty represents the G5. They’ll have to go 12-0 to do it and and I think they can.
How the new 12-team College Football Playoff will actually work
As the CFP goes from 4 to 12 teams, much has changed — from team qualification and seeding to sites and dates.
My bracket overall is pretty chalky. I could see Ole Miss making a run at things. They’ll be able to score and I think they’ll get some matchups they like. Oregon is another team that makes a deep run to me. Dan Lanning is building something special in Eugene. But ultimately, I’m looking at Ohio State and Georgia as the teams in the title game. Georgia wants to extend their dynasty and stake their claim as the kings of the new SEC. And with Nick Saban gone, Kirby Smart has a chance to stand alone as the man running college football. For Ryan Day’s team, the last three years have been misery. Their rival Michigan has beaten them and gone on to win the Big Ten three seasons in a row, adding the National Championship last season for good measure. Ohio State is all in on getting back to championship status. However, as much as OSU put into it, I think Kirby Smart and Georgia continue their dynastic run as national champs.
The 2024 Heisman Trophy winner will be…
Auerbach: Oregon quarterback Dillion Gabriel. I’m quite high on the Ducks, as you can see by my preseason CFP picks, and a huge reason for that is I believe they’ve got the best quarterback in the country. Gabriel is ultra-experienced, with previous multi-year stints at UCF and Oklahoma, and he’s shown he’s more than capable of winning big games. Couple Gabriel’s big arm with an offensive coordinator whose most recent protégé earned a trip to New York City as a Heisman finalist himself, and you’ve got yourself a winner.
Perry: Ole Miss quarterback Jaxson Dart. I’m high on Ole Miss and a huge reason why is this quarterback. Dart is a productive player with a ton of grit and fire. He’s well supported offensively, by both scheme and personnel. The real idea here, though, is the opportunities he’ll have for Heisman moments. Going on the road to LSU and getting a big win would be a moment, regardless of how much LSU’s defense has improved over new DC Blake Baker. Hosting Georgia later in the year and leading his team to victory in that spot would be another moment to hang his hat on. I think the situation is right for Dart to have an exceptional season, and he’ll have chances for Heisman moments to really sway voters.
The 2024 National Coach of the Year will be…
Auerbach: Nebraska coach Matt Rhule. Rhule is a proven program-builder, having done it first at Temple and then somewhat miraculously at Baylor immediately following the Art Briles scandal. After a failed stint in the NFL, he came back to college football and is in the process of returning Nebraska to national prominence. We saw the Huskers make huge strides on the defensive side of the ball last year, and I expect the offense to do the same this year with five-star freshman quarterback Dylan Raiola. The schedule is quite favorable, and Nebraska could be bowl-eligible for the first time since 2016 … by Halloween. If that’s the case, Rhule may lock this award up early.
Perry: Utah coach Kyle Whittingham. Utah is a first round bye in the Playoff and Whittingham will be rewarded. I believe Whittingham is a top-five coach in the sport. His teams consistently have an identity and he always ends up coaching them to wins they’re not supposed to get. I believe with the spotlight on conference champions, a coach like Whittingham coming into a new conference in year one and handling business will result in a Coach of the Year award.
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