At the halfway point of the season, the Huskers are off to one of their best starts in the College Football Playoff era. In some aspects of the game, namely rushing defense, they’ve been elite. But in special teams, they’ve been one of the worst. The bye week comes at an excellent time for the Huskers. Dylan Raiola gets some extra rest and practice immediately following his worst career game. Brian Buschini, the lone bright spot on special teams, showed some wrinkles that should help slow down the punt block units.
Note: All stats in this article will be as of a team’s sixth game of the season now that almost every team has played six games in 2024. All ranks or stats are based on just the first six games of the season. Five teams have only played five games in 2024
The Huskers defense is truly off to one of the greatest starts of the CFP era. Only one other defense has made it this far in the season with no rushing touchdowns allowed: 2019 Georgia, who went on to beat Matt Rhule in the Sugar Bowl.
Nebraska’s 68 points allowed ranks seventh in the country. Since the playoffs began, 31 teams have allowed fewer than 70 points at the midway mark. Of those teams, 18 were ranked in the top 12 of the final College Football Playoff poll. Only 11 finished the season unranked.
Only 14 teams have allowed fewer yards than Nebraska’s 1,645 this season. This puts Nebraska in the top 7% of teams in the CFP era. But an elite defense in the first half of the season doesn’t always bode success for the rest of the year. Boston College in 2015 only allowed 842 yards through six games, the only team under 1000 yards allowed at the midway point. Like the Huskers, their schedule was heavily backloaded. The Eagles would face Deshaun Watson, Lamar Jackson, Jacoby Brisset, and DeShone Kizer, all NFL draft picks, and finish the season 3-9.
The offense has been more of a mixed bag for Nebraska in 2024. The Huskers have their fewest rushing yards at the midway point of any Husker team in the playoff era. Their passing yards are above average, but the overall offense has its third-lowest total in the last 11 years. Only five teams had fewer than the Huskers’ 822 rushing yards at the midway point and gone on to finish in the top 12.
Total scoring is a similar trend for the Huskers. Nebraska has scored 168 points this season, a massive improvement over the 114 it scored in 2023. Only three teams have scored less than the Huskers and gone on to finish in the top 12 of the CFP rankings. More points will be required if the Huskers want to contend for 10 or more wins this season.
Between its elite defense and below-average offense, a playoff berth wouldn’t be unheard of for the Huskers. Of the 120 teams who have finished in the top 12 of the committee’s rankings, 31 had a worse scoring differential at this point of the season. 2016 USC even had a negative scoring differential before Sam Darnold turned their season around on the way to a Pac-12 title and winning a thrilling Rose Bowl versus Penn State.
Nebraska’s 632 net yardage advantage would rank the Huskers as the 34th best among teams finishing in the top 12. Nebraska’s defense will give up more yards in the second half of the season than the first. Its next two opponents are two of the six teams averaging over 500 yards of offense per game. Dylan Raiola’s offense will have to give the defense more help against these more high-powered offenses.
The first half of the season has produced a lot of ups and downs. For the most part, the Huskers have done well. The playoff window is still open for Nebraska, but I still think making the final cut will be an uphill battle. The Blackshirts would have to continue their elite performance against a much higher quality of opponent. I think the offense would have to take another leap from what it’s already accomplished this year.
I expect a few 300-yard games from Raiola in the second half of the season. I think the offense finishes in the top half of teams in both points and yards. The defense will slide a bit, but I think it will remain a top 20 in both yards allowed and points allowed. My preseason prediction for the Huskers was 7-5. I’m upgrading my prediction to a slightly more optimistic 8-4 at the halfway point.
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