Michigan State vs Western Kentucky odds, line: 2021 Week 5 college football picks from proven computer model

The Michigan State Spartans look to keep their undefeated season rolling against the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers at 7:30 p.m. ET on Saturday at Spartan Stadium. Michigan State is off to its best start since 2015 under head coach Mel Tucker. Meanwhile, WKU has been putting up big offensive numbers, but haven’t been able to stop opponents on the ground to start the season. Michigan State narrowly escaped with a 23-20 win against Nebraska last week, but are now the only 2-0 team in the Big Ten conference standings. The Hilltoppers finished the 2020 regular season with three consecutive wins, but are on the road against good teams in three of the next four weeks. 

The Spartans are favored by 10.5 points in the latest Michigan State vs. Western Kentucky odds from Caesars Sportsbook, and the over-under is set at 61.5. Before you make any Western Kentucky vs. Michigan State picks, you’ll want to see the college football predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every FBS college football game 10,000 times. Over the past five-plus years, the proprietary computer model has generated a stunning profit of almost $3,300 for $100 players on its top-rated college football picks against the spread. After going a sizzling 9-3 in Week 4, It also enters Week 5 of the 2021 season on an 81-61 run on all top-rated college football picks. Anyone who has followed it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Michigan State vs. Western Kentucky and just revealed its CFB picks and predictions. You can head to SportsLine to see its picks. Here are several college football odds and betting lines for Michigan State vs. Western Kentucky:

• Michigan State vs. Western Kentucky spread: Michigan State -10.5
• Michigan State vs. Western Kentucky over-under: 62 points
• Michigan State: 2-1 overall but 0-2-1 against the spread as a home favorite under Mel Tucker
• Western Kentucky: 7-3-1 ATS under head coach Tyson Helton

What you need to know about Michigan State

Things got dicey for the Spartans last weekend against lowly Nebraska, and Michigan State found themselves down by a touchdown in the fourth quarter with just 7:29 left to play. Had it not been for a Jayden Reed punt return to save the day, the Huskers might have left East Lansing with a big upset.

Junior running back Kenneth Walker had an unusually pedestrian day, with just 61 rushing yards. For the season he is still averaging over seven yards per carry, and he should get back on track against the Hilltoppers. Western Kentucky has allowed 224.7 yards per game to opposing rushing attacks, and Indiana finished with 232 yards on the ground against them last weekend.

What you need to know about Western Kentucky

It’s easy to write off Western Kentucky as a small program that doesn’t stand a chance against a Big Ten power like Michigan State, but WKU’s two losses this season have come by a combined total of five pints. Last week against Indiana, WKU came within two points of the Hoosiers at three different points in the game, but just couldn’t manage to get in front.

Senior QB Bailey Zappe has come out of nowhere to put up gaudy passing numbers this season, and has completed 73 percent of his passes for 1,224 yards, 13 touchdowns and just two interceptions. The Hilltoppers almost exclusively pass the ball, and only have 246 total rushing yards as a team in 2021. For as good as Michigan State has been this season, the Spartans have the 23rd-worst pass defense in the country.

How to make Western Kentucky vs. Michigan State picks

The model has simulated Michigan State vs. Western Kentucky 10,000 times and the results are in. We can tell you that the model is leaning Under, and it’s also generated a point-spread pick that is hitting in well over 50 percent of simulations. You can only see the pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Western Kentucky vs. Michigan State? And which side of the spread hits in over 50 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Michigan State vs. Western Kentucky spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that is on an 81-61 run on top-rated picks, and find out.