Michigan football ESPN FPI game-by-game predictions after Week 6

Michigan football did what it had to do, though it wasn’t pretty, getting another big road win against a tough out in Nebraska.

Though it appeared that the Wolverines were cruising to victory at halftime, up 13-0, the Huskers came storming back, taking the lead — Michigan’s first deficit of the season — before the maize and blue defense eventually stood tall in a hostile environment.

ESPN FPI is a predictive advanced analytics model, and it has the Wolverines as the No. 5 team in the country. Last week, one game was moved to a loss while another was pretty much toss up at 50/50. The Wolverines are now expected by advanced stats to have a final regular season record of 10.4-1.9. The offense is ranked No. 8, special teams No. 7, and defense No. 25.

Here is how ESPN FPI predicts each remaining game going into Michigan’s bye week.

Week 8: Northwestern

Photo: Jon Durr-USA TODAY Sports

Previously: 96% Michigan win
Now: 95.7% Michigan win

Context

The Wildcats were idle this week, so apparently not showing awful football on tape was enough for Northwestern to gain 0.03-percentage points.

Week 9: at Michigan State

Photo: Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports

Previously: 57.9% Michigan win
Now: 53% Michigan win

Context

Certainly, a big part of this has to be the transitive property factor. The Spartans dominated Rutgers on the road while Michigan had trouble with the Scarlet Knights at home. Even if the other common opponent each had, Nebraska, saw Michigan win in regulation while MSU went to overtime, the Spartans look dangerous on offense, and we saw how much the Husker offense put the Wolverine defense on their heels.

Week 10: Indiana

Photo: Matthew OHaren-USA TODAY Sports

Previously: 89.3% Michigan win
Now: 89% Michigan win

Context

Same deal as Northwestern. Indiana was idle and that allowed it to gain the same amount of percentage points.

Week 11: at Penn State

Photo: HawkCentral

Previously: 51.7% Michigan win
Now: 50.7% Michigan win

Story continues

Context

Perhaps its because the Nittany Lions played a close game with No. 3 Iowa, but Penn State gained a full point. Still, now we know Michigan can win a tough game on the road, but it still hasn’t done so against a ranked opponent this year.

Week 12: at Maryland

Photo: Columbus Dispatch

Previously: 83.3% Michigan win
Now: 87.4% Michigan win

Context

This game looked much tougher a few weeks ago, but Maryland’s offense has imploded, while its defense is highly penetrable. Back-to-back losses to Iowa and Ohio State show that the Terrapins aren’t serious about challenging for the East.

Week 13: Ohio State

Photo: Columbus Dispatch

Previously: 48.8% Michigan win
Now: 43.4% Michigan win

Context

Ohio State has rounded back into form and looks as formidable as it has in recent years. It comes to The Big House, but it seems like it’ll be both awfully difficult to stop on defense and hard to score on, offensively, barring any big changes.

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