McMaster’s Big Ten Football Pick’em: Week 7

From the heart of the Big Ten Conference in Chicago, HuskerMax’s self-proclaimed “Big Ten expert” Matt McMaster gives his picks against the spread.

McMaster was 4-2-2 last week.

Point spreads via ESPN.

Northwestern @ Maryland (-10.5)

Northwestern showed a lot of grit and life in their offense last week when they took on the Indiana Hoosiers. Jack Lausch looked like a legitimate Division One quarterback, and the Cats finally zeroed in on getting former four-star wideout AJ Henning the ball. They will need that type of performance again when they take on the Maryland Terrapins, who boast one of the worst passing defenses in the league, allowing nearly 300 yards per game through the air. If the Wildcats defense can get back on track and continue their offensive momentum from a week ago, they won’t need all 10 and a half points to cover this contest.

The Pick: Northwestern +10.5 

Washington @ Iowa (-2)

The Washington Huskies make their way to Iowa City for the first time as members of the Big Ten this Saturday as they take on a beat-up Iowa Hawkeye squad. Iowa will look to bounce back after another embarrassing loss to a ranked opponent. The Huskies, through six games this season, have one of the best defenses in the nation, allowing just 15 points and 256 total yards per game; both marks are in the top 10. Last week, when picking this game, I asked “Can Ohio State score more than the spread.” I said yes and picked that game as my lock of the week. This week, I’ll ask, “Can Washington Score 10 points?” The answer is yes, and I’ll roll with the Huskies. 

The Pick: Washington +2

Wisconsin @ Rutgers (-2)

It’s funny how much of a difference a week makes. Just eight days ago, I would’ve hammered Rutgers -2 and made it my no-brainer lock of the week, but last Saturday changed a lot. For the first time, the Badgers looked like the team and offense we expected under Luke Fickell, and Rutgers lost. The two sides are riding the opposite waves of momentum as they head into their contest in Piscataway, New Jersey. Despite their slip-up against Nebraska, I still believe in Greg Schiano and the Scarlet Knights. Rutgers’ defense is ten times the unit of Purdue’s and will be able to suppress the Badgers. Kyle Monongai will take advantage of the subpar Wisconsin interior, which allows 4.4 yards per carry, and Rutgers will grind out their fifth win of the year.

The Pick: Rutgers -2

Penn State @ USC (+3.5)

This is the ultimate trap game for the Penn State Nittany Lions. They’ll cross two time zones to take on a USC team whose record does not reflect the current talent on their roster. The Trojans are desperate after letting two road games slip through their fingers as Lincoln Riley’s seat is getting warm. His team needs a massive win to resurrect its season, and this is the team against which to do it. I’m not willing to say that the USC wins outright, but you can’t fake desperation. Because of that, I’ll take the Trojans and the points.

The Pick: USC +3.5

Purdue @ Illinois (-22.5)

Despite the loss, I was very encouraged by Illinois’ play against Penn State in Happy Valley. The Illini were in the game until the very end, and their defense competed better than any other opponent of the Nittany Lions so far. Off a bye, Illinois welcomes one of the worst teams in the country to Champaign. The Illini are too strong up front on both sides of the ball and will impose their will on the Boilermakers for 60 minutes. 22.5 points is a lot to give up for a squad that averages less than that on offense, but Purdue’s defense couldn’t stop a pig in an alley. 

The Pick: Illinois -22.5 (McMasters’ Lock of The Week)

Ohio State @ Oregon (OSU -3)

These two are incredibly evenly matched. They’re the class of the country and have shown no weakness on either end of the football field. With so much talent on the field, I am tempted to take the Ducks and the points in a game like this. But I will go against my better judgment and ride with the Buckeyes simply because I trust Will Howard more than Dillon Gabriel to not make a crucial mistake that will cost his team the game.

The Pick: Ohio State -3

Minnesota @ UCLA (+3.5)

Last week, Minnesota bullied a former Pac-12 team located in California to a great victory. While they travel to take on an opponent from the same state this week, they must win it differently. The UCLA Bruins possess one of the best-rushing defenses in the country this year, ranking 27th in opponent yards per rush and 19th in opponent rushing yards per game. Despite the Bruins’ success in the trenches, their pass defense is one of the nation’s worst, ranking in the bottom quarter in opponent passing yards per game and completion percentage. While it’s not the Gophers strong suit, 3.5 points are not enough for a Bruins team that has been outmatched by nearly every opponent this year.

The Pick: Minnesota -3.5

Indiana, Michigan, Michigan State, and Nebraska are not in action this week.

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