Aug. 5—SIOUX FALLS — All 11 teams in the Missouri Valley Football Conference play an FBS opponent this season. Northern Iowa plays two.
The marquee game is Thursday, Aug. 29, when North Dakota State visits Colorado. Two days later, two-time defending FCS champion South Dakota State visits Oklahoma State in a game that ought to be pretty interesting as well.
What are the chances of a couple upsets of the MVFC/FBS variety? Let’s take a look, with a focus on the four Dakota schools.
I’m rating the chances of an upset for each on a scale of 1-5, with one being an expected blowout and five being an outright prediction that the FCS team will win.
NDSU at Colorado, Aug. 29
The Bison did not play an FBS opponent last year. The last time they did, in 2022, they fell 31-28 to Arizona. That loss snapped a six-game winning streak for NDSU against FBS teams, and it was a game the Bison probably should’ve won. The loss dropped them to a mere 9-4 all-time against the level formerly known as I-A.
That’s probably why Colorado coach Deion Sanders made a point to say at Big 12 media day that he’s not pleased with his bosses for scheduling this game.
The Buffaloes were the toast of college football late last summer, rising into the Top 25 after a 3-0 start, but from there the house of cards fell apart and CU lost their last six games to finish 4-8.
The Bison, meanwhile, went 11-4 but finished strong, nearly getting back to Frisco until their season ended with an overtime loss to Montana in the semifinals. They’re under a new coach in Tim Polasek, but they’re returning a ton of talent. This is an experienced team and a hungry one, and their history of winning these games helps them. All the pressure is on the Buffs.
Chance of an upset: 4.5
SDSU at Oklahoma State, Aug. 31
The Jackrabbits have two FBS wins to their credit, and neither of them were the kind that shook the college football world. In 2015 they beat a Kansas team that would finish that season 0-12, and in 2021 they hammered a Colorado State team that would finish near the bottom of the Mountain West. Most of the others have been of the ‘close but no cigar’ variety. There was the 7-3 loss to Iowa in 2022, a 28-21 loss to Minnesota in 2019 and a 59-41 loss to TCU in 2017 where the Jacks were tied going to the fourth quarter.
A win over Oklahoma State would be easily SDSU’s biggest. The Cowboys have reached a bowl game in 18 straight seasons, won 10 games last year and are picked third in the Big 12 this season. They’re an extremely experienced team with high expectations.
On the one hand, the Cowboys should be aware of and prepared for SDSU’s capabilities — the Jacks are two-time national champs and have won 29 in a row. OSU was unable to blow out Central Arkansas last year (27-13) and struggled to beat Missouri State in 2021 (23-16). On the other hand, even an SDSU team working in a few new starters is likely to be much better than the FCS teams OSU has faced in the recent past. The Jacks may surprise the Cowboys no matter how hard coach Mike Gundy works to prepare them.
Chance of an upset: 3.5
USD at Wisconsin, Sept. 7
The Badgers are coming off a ho-hum 7-6 season, while the Coyotes are riding the momentum of their best season in Division I. They have virtually their entire offense back from a 10-win team and the nucleus for a solid defense as well. The Coyotes are experienced — they have a large class of fifth and sixth year seniors. That was one of the most important (and underrated) factors in South Dakota State’s dominance last year, and it could loom large for USD. The Yotes should be coming off a comfortable win over Northern State, while the Badgers open against a Western Michigan team that’s likely weaker than USD.
The Badgers were picked 7th this year in an 18(!) team Big Ten. If they’re not careful, this could trip them up.
Chance of an upset: 3
UND at Iowa State, Aug. 31
It’s been a tough offseason for the Fighting Hawks, with players jumping into the portal (QB Tommy Schuster is now at Michigan State and starting offensive lineman Sam Hagen joined the rival Jackrabbits) and top assistant Danny Freund sliding over to South Dakota State.
The Cyclones won seven games last year, including a 30-9 win over Northern Iowa, an FCS team they play often and have lost to a few times. A win here would go a long way towards changing the impression of UND around the FCS world, but it’s kind of hard to envision it happening.
Chance of an upset: 2
Southern Illinois at BYU, Aug. 31
Now that we’ve moved outside the Dakotas we’re going to give these mostly a fly-by glance (read: I don’t want to spend all day studying the opponents of the other FBS teams to play Valley teams). I don’t know much about BYU. They moved into the Big 12 last year and went 5-7 to snap a streak of five straight years in a bowl game. SIU is a good team, probably capable of winning this.
Chance of an upset: 2.5
Northern Iowa at Nebraska, Sept. 14
The Panthers are not the FCS power they once were. The Huskers are not the FBS power they once were. But Nebraska looks like they might be trending in the right direction under new coach Matt Rhule. I’d love to pick the Panthers here because Husker misery brings me joy, but I don’t see it happening.
Chance of an upset: 2
Missouri State at Ball State, Sept. 7
Ball State is looking to snap a streak of three straight losing seasons. Missouri State is moving on to the FBS level despite not being good.
Chance of an upset: 2
Youngstown State at Pitt
The Panthers were just 3-9 last year, a big drop-off from having won 20 games over the previous two seasons. The Penguins are on the upswing with consecutive winning seasons and a playoff berth last year. This could be interesting.
Chance of an upset: 2
Indiana State at Purdue, Aug. 31
Purdue got picked to finish 18th in the Big Ten. I hate that being ’18th in the Big Ten’ is a thing. The Sycamores might be playing for Curt Mallory’s job this year. This is probably not going to be a great football game.
Chance of an upset: 1.5
Illinois State at Iowa, Aug. 31
I contend that if South Dakota State had played Iowa in October instead of the first game of the season in 2022 the Jackrabbits would have won by two touchdowns. Luckily for the Hawkeyes, the Redbirds are not the Jackrabbits. Iowa finally, mercifully, made a change at offensive coordinator, and there’s no way in the universe it won’t make them at least somewhat better on that side of the ball.
Chance of an upset: 1.5
Northern Iowa at Hawaii, Sept. 21
Hey, if you’re not going to invest anything in your football team a nice way to soften the blow is to schedule a trip to Hawaii, right? The Rainbow Warriors are looking to take a big step forward in Timmy Chang’s third year at the helm, and this is one they have to have. The Panthers will be banged up after playing the Huskers, and tired from the trip.
Chance of an upset: 1
Murray State at Missouri, Aug. 29
This’ll be ugly.
Chance of an upset: 0.5
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