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Friday Flakes: Another Statistical Analysis Says Nebraska Should Have Won More Games in 2021


It’s late on a Thursday night and I have to find something to write about with Flakes.

Well I give a big thank you to CFBNumbers on Twitter.

From the substack article:

To look back at the tragedy of the Cornhuskers, we will primarily be using a metric known as “post game win probability” (PGWP). This metric comes from CollegeFootballData.com, and is defined as follows:

“Post game win probability looks at advanced metrics like success rates, PPA, and scoring opportunities and assesses the probability of each team winning should the game be played again with equivalent stats. In other words, if you take all of the plays in a game and shuffle them into a random order, how often would each team be expected to win?”

Well, we can simulate those games (5000 times) and see how many wins Nebraska comes out with at the end of the simulation. After 5000 simulations… we arrive at two seasons where the Cornhuskers only get three wins.

Take that for what you will. It can validate whatever it is you want to believe.

Yay!



Sports! Sports! Sports! Sports! Sports!

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