Fact or Fiction: Indiana should win at least eight games this season
Rivals national recruiting analyst Greg Smith is joined by national recruiting analyst John Garcia, Ryan O’Bleness of SpartansIllustrated.com and Jim Coyle of TheHoosier.com to tackle three topics and determine whether they believe each statement is FACT or FICTION.
1. The Florida programs dropped the ball not keeping Jacory Barney home.
Garcia: FACT. Jacory Barney was one of the more electric players in fertile South Florida as a prep standout. He was always making plays at various positions, but most expected him to excel with the ball in his hands at the next level. It was only a matter of time before he focused on one position and added to his slight frame, seemingly accomplished last year during his redshirt season at Nebraska.
Now, we see Barney getting touches manufactured in the NU offense, whether as a pass-catcher or runner behind the line of scrimmage. That type of juice has not been seen much at Florida State this year, and the lack of versatility among Florida Gators wide receivers has made the program one dimensional against FBS opponents this fall. Barney did not even claim scholarship offers from FSU or UF. Even UCF passed. Miami was in the mix, but he wasn’t a priority when it came down to his pick.
Smith: FACT. Nebraska has always worked hard to recruit South Florida and it’s had success in the past landing players from there. So it wasn’t a shock when he landed at Nebraska. But the fact that the in-state programs were so lukewarm on the playmaker was baffling. It looks worse already in hindsight because he’s a big part of what the Huskers are doing on an offense that has some excitement around it.
Florida State really dropped the ball here. Its receiving corps has struggled in a major way this season (though QB play doesn’t help) and could use a playmaker like Barney. The speedster is going to make a lot of plays in Lincoln and leave people wondering what the Florida programs were thinking.
2. Michigan State is ahead of schedule right now under Jonathan Smith.
O’Bleness: FACT. But with some disclaimers. Let’s start with those. It’s still too early to tell exactly where Michigan State stands within the Big Ten or on the national landscape. The Spartans already have a big road win in conference play over Maryland, but a tough away game this week against a good Boston College team – playing in front of a likely rowdy and emotional crowd during the “Red Bandana Game” at Alumni Stadium – will give us our best glimpse yet into what MSU’s ceiling is in 2024. The injuries are starting to mount up already, especially along the offensive line, and I don’t know if Michigan State has the depth to sustain this hot start if that continues. Also, the penalties need to be cleaned up.
However, I do believe Michigan State is ahead of schedule. MSU is 3-0 for the first time since 2021, and I don’t know how many pundits predicted that going into the campaign. The change in culture and atmosphere is palpable under head coach Jonathan Smith and his staff. Smith preaches ‘low ego, high output.’ There may not be a head coach in America who embodies that more than Smith, and his players have completely bought in. Despite having 61 new faces on the roster this year, this team’s cohesiveness is visible. They play for each other. The coaches are great talent developers and strong schematically, and put their players in positions to succeed.
To be honest, not many people knew what to expect from this team entering the season. Personally, I would not have been surprised with as few as four wins or as many as nine. But the minimum goal was always a bowl game, and MSU is well on track for that. This team believes in itself in 2024, and the foundation has been laid for the future.
Smith: FICTION. If there was a ‘push’ option like in gambling I’d go with that here. I think Smith has the Spartans right on schedule so far. A win this weekend at Boston College would certainly get my attention. But this begins a brutal stretch of games for Michigan State. After Boston College, dates with Ohio State, Oregon, Iowa and Michigan await the team. A split in those four would be nothing short of a miracle.
I like what the new staff is doing and think they’ll have success but they are right on target with where they should be. Let’s revisit this all in November.
3. Indiana should win at least eight games this season.
Coyle: FACT. It is usually not too difficult to express the projections for a team that went 3-9 (1-8 Big Ten) a season ago. But under new coach Curt Cignetti, Indiana is one of the few programs, who after a preseason of unusual hype, seems to be living up to the adulation and bravado of their new coach. Cignetti has boldly talked-the-talk about his new Indiana football team, a program with the most losses in FBS history, and his Hoosiers appear to be walking-the-walk just three weeks into this college football season.
With how the Hoosiers’ schedule plays out, Indiana should have a legitimate shot at winning between eight and 11 games this season. Yeah, I know, it sounds as crazy as crazy gets, but I truly believe it to be a reality. In the remaining nine games on Indiana’s schedule, six of those contests, including Nebraska, Washington, Michigan and Purdue will be in Bloomington.
The Hoosiers will most likely be favored in eight of the nine games left on the schedule. There will be some tough games and very stiff challenges like Maryland, Nebraska, Washington and Michigan at home and Michigan State and Ohio State on the road. But Indiana should have a legitimate shot of winning every remaining game on their schedule, save Ohio State.
You wanna talk crazy? What if? What if Indiana is able to go 11-1? Even if things do not completely go the Hoosiers’ way for an 11-1 season, 8-4 looks like a very safe bet as the bottom for these new look Hoosiers.
Smith: FACT. Expectations are a funny thing in sports. If you asked this question ahead of the season for a team that won three games last season and one conference game it would feel nuts. But the fact that it’s even being asked is a testament to coach Curt Cignetti’s ability to raise the bar quickly.
This is all about the schedule. The Hoosiers have a realistic path to 6-0 before Nebraska comes to town. Then the team would need to win just two of its last five games to hit eight wins. There will be slip-ups along the way because the Big Ten is too tough but the Hoosiers should find a way to win eight games in Year 1 under its new coach.
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