Every Current Big Ten Coach’s First and Best Seasons

Well, it’s that time of year again. The time of year when we look back on the season and try to make sense of how our coach is doing in the grand scheme of things. As I have been trying to figure out how I feel about Matt Rhule’s first season as the head coach of the Nebraska Cornhuskers, I found myself wondering how his first season stacks up against the first seasons of other coaches within the Big Ten. And also, how many of those coaches got better, how many got worse, and what were the situations that they inherited like?

Bada bing bada boom, I made a big list.

Below is a list of every Big Ten head coach, including the records of their first season, best season, current season, and the previous season before they took the job. For teams that either fired their coach this season or have a first year head coach, I included the previous head coach as well. I didn’t include David Braun because he wasn’t able to coach a full offseason, so I don’t consider this to be his first year.

Here’s the list:

# Illinois

Bret Bielema

* Previous Season: 2 – 6
* First Season: 5 – 7
* Best Season: 8 – 5
* Current Season: 5 – 6

# Indiana

Tom Allen

* Previous Season: 6 – 7
* First Season: 5 – 7
* Best Season: 8 – 5
* Current Season: 3 – 8

# Iowa

Kirk Ferentz

* Previous Season: 3 – 8
* First Season: 1 – 10
* Best Season: 12 – 2
* Current Season: 9 – 2

# Maryland

Mike Locksley

* Previous Season: 5 – 7
* First Season: 3 – 9
* Best Season: 8 – 5
* Current Season: 6 – 5

# Michigan

Jim Harbaugh

* Previous Season: 5 – 7
* First Season: 10 – 3
* Best Season: 13 – 1
* Current Season: 11 – 0 (including suspension)

# Michigan State

No data for current coach

Mel Tucker

* Previous Season: 7 – 6
* First Season: 2 – 5
* Best Season: 11 – 2
* Final Season: 2 – 0, Fired, currently 4 – 7

# Minnesota

PJ Fleck

* Previous Season: 9 – 4
* First Season: 5 – 7
* Best Season: 11 – 2
* Current Season: 5 – 6

# Nebraska

Matt Rhule (First year)

* Previous Season: 4 – 8
* First Season: 5 – 6
* Best Season: 5 – 6
* Current Season: 5 – 6

Scott Frost

* Previous Season: 4 – 8
* First Season: 4 – 8
* Best Season: 5 – 7 (woof)
* Final Season: 1 – 2, Fired, finished 4 – 8

# Northwestern

No data for current coach

Pat Fitzgerald

* Previous Season: 7 – 5
* First Season: 4 – 8
* Best Season: 10 – 3
* Final Season: 1 – 11

# Ohio State

Ryan Day

* Previous Season: 13 – 1
* First Season: 13 – 1
* Best Season: 13 – 1
* Current Season: 10 – 0

# Penn State

James Franklin

* Previous Season: 7 – 5
* First Season: 7 – 6
* Best Season: 11 – 3
* Current Season: 9 – 2

# Purdue

Ryan Walters (First year)

* Previous Season: 8 – 6
* First Season:  3 – 8
* Best Season: 3 – 8
* Current Season: 3 – 8

Jeff Brohm

* Previous Season: 3 – 9
* First Season:  7 – 6
* Best Season: 9 – 4
* Final Season: 8 – 5, Hired away, finished 8 – 6

# Rutgers

Greg Schiano

* Previous Season: 2 – 10
* First Season: 3 – 6
* Best Season: 6 – 5 (In progress)
* Current Season: 6 – 5

# Wisconsin

Luke Fickell (First year)

* Previous Season: 7 – 6
* First Season: 6 – 5
* Best Season: 6 – 5
* Current Season: 6 – 5

Paul Chryst

* Previous Season: 11 – 3
* First Season:  10 – 3
* Best Season: 13 – 1
* Final Season: 2 – 3, Fired, finished 7 – 6

…

Wow, that’s a lot of data.

A couple things that I notice:

1. Out of the 17 recent Big Ten coaches, 11 had losing records in their first season.
2. Of those 11, only Scott Frost and Greg Schiano failed to ever have a winning record, though Rutgers is currently 6-5 this season, so the jury is still out. (Edit: not counting first year coaches, of course)
3. Of the 6 coaches with winning records year 1, only Jim Harbaugh and Jeff Brohm came into programs with losing records.
4. Only Bielema, Harbaugh, Rhule, and Brohm (Fickell still TBD) improved their teams’ winning % in their first year.
5. Success is not linear. Without counting first year coaches, every coach except Ryan Day improved after their first season. Though, notably, it is much easier to improve on a 5 – 7 season than a 13 – 1 season.

TL;DR – Just read the bullet points above, it’s like 5 sentences you lazy-ass

Is this dataset flawed? Yes absolutely. Kirk Ferentz has been at Iowa for like 25 years and Bert has been at Illinois for 3. The 1999 and 2021 football seasons aren’t really that comparable.

Is this dataset still interesting though? I absolutely think it is. I’m not trying to give any prescriptive statements about Matt Rhule, I just think that this provides interesting context to his first season in the Big Ten.

What do you think? Do you see anything I missed? Do you disagree with anything I said in this post? Do you think the sampling methodology is bullshit? How do you feel about head coach Matt Rhule so far? I’d love to hear your thoughts!

Also, I manually copied all this info from Wikipedia, so if you notice any errors please let me know!

View Reddit by United_Reflection104 – View Source