Dylan Raiola recruiting class might improve Big Ten QB play

You can tell a little about a college football conference by the players who appear at the league’s media days.

In the Big 12, for example, 11 of the 16 teams brought their quarterbacks to Las Vegas.

A few — like Colorado’s Shedeur Sanders — are stars, but casual college football observers may be hard-pressed to match Behren Morton and Josh Hoover to their current teams. Nevertheless, Texas Tech and TCU had their QBs on hand and their coaches gushing about them.

“Josh has an opportunity to be one of the elite quarterbacks in the league this season,” TCU coach Sonny Dykes said of Hoover.

Then there’s the Big Ten, flush with money and momentum and many, many linebackers.

The 18-team league kicks off its media days next week inside Indianapolis’ Lucas Oil Stadium. Over three days, reporters will hear from 14 linebackers. Illinois and Rutgers are each bringing two linebackers, in case there’s any doubt about where the league’s strength rests.

They will be joined by just five quarterbacks — Minnesota’s Max Brosmer, Oregon’s Dillon Gabriel, Purdue’s Hudson Card, UCLA’s Ethan Garbers and USC’s Miller Moss. Four of them have never taken a snap in the league. Three come from the defecting Pac-12 quartet joins the league.

And while the Ducks, Bruins, Trojans and Washington Huskies landed in the Big Ten because of their TV markets, athletics success and brand recognition, they may also bring a little bit of passing prowess the Big Ten sorely lacks.

Last year, the futility was clear: Minnesota, Rutgers, Nebraska and Iowa ranked 126th, 127th, 129th and 130th in passing yards per game. No other power conference teams were less adroit passing the ball. In completion rate, those four ranked 123rd (Minnesota), 126th (Nebraska), 132nd (Iowa) and 133rd (Rutgers). Again, no other power conference teams had it worse.

And while Michigan won the 2023 national title, and quarterback J.J. McCarthy got picked in the first round of the 2024 NFL Draft, the Wolverines ranked 82nd nationally in passing yards per game and 42nd in touchdown passes.

Only one league team — Maryland at 22nd — ranked inside the nation’s Top 30 for yards per game, and only Penn State (16th) and Maryland (25th) ranked among the Top 30 in touchdown passes.

Drew Allar threw 25 of the 30 touchdowns last year at PSU. And coach James Franklin opted not to bring him to Indy. Franklin will bring a tight end to represent the offense. So will four other schools.

Nebraska will bring center Ben Scott — along with Blackshirt veterans Ty Robinson and Isaac Gifford — to represent NU, and for 2024 that makes sense. The Huskers’ odds-on favorite to start at quarterback, Dylan Raiola, is a true freshman.

Besides, coach Matt Rhule’s decision to bring Jeff Sims in 2023 did not lead to on-field success.

“He’s not super talked-about outside Nebraska circles,” Rhule said of Sims last year. Sims remained that way after turnovers and injuries in ’23. He left NU after one season as a starter.

Coincidentally, many other quarterbacks left the league, too. McCarthy headed to the NFL after three years. Maryland’s Taulia Tagovailoa exhausted his eligibility, and the NCAA rejected his request for another season. Ohio State’s Kyle McCord transferred to Syracuse.

It’s left the Big Ten near low tide at quarterback for 2024. Of course, the tide hasn’t exactly been high. Not for years.

A conference once known for its 1980s pro-style passers (Chuck Long, Jim Everett, Jim Harbaugh, Jack Trudeau) and one of the first to run the shotgun spread passing game with Joe Tiller and Drew Brees, has relatively returned to its primordial roots of the 1960s and 1970s. Line play. Defense. Punting.

Consider the following data from the last decade of college football.

* Since 2014, 21 Pac-12 quarterbacks had seasons of 30 or more touchdown passes. The Big 12 has had 17, followed by the SEC (15) and ACC (14). The Big Ten had seven such seasons from quarterbacks. OSU signal callers accounted for six of those seasons, and the other belonged to Minnesota’s Tanner Morgan in 2019.

* In the last 10 NFL drafts, the SEC has 12 quarterbacks selected in the first three rounds. The Pac-12 (11) and even the conglomerate of non-power leagues are ahead of the Big Ten, which has seen seven of its QBs selected in the first three rounds since 2015. Ohio State accounts for four first-rounders — J.T. Barrett, Dwayne Haskins, Justin Fields and C.J. Stroud — with McCarthy (1st), Penn State’s Christian Hackenberg (2nd) and Iowa’s C.J. Beathard (3rd) account for the other three early-round draftees.

* The Big Ten’s QB reputation was long buoyed by Brees and Tom Brady, the latter parlaying a decent Michigan career — 30 touchdown passes over four years — into a modest sixth-round NFL draft selection, which became fuel for seven Super Bowl titles, 15 Pro Bowls and 89,214 yards. Brees, who threw for a mere 80,358 yards, has his name attached to Purdue’s academic center.

But they’ve both retired, leaving the Big Ten with just two alums who threw for more than 3,000 yards in 2023. One is Stroud, the NFL’s Offensive Rookie of the Year. The other is 35-year-old Wisconsin alum Russell Wilson, who is on the tail end of his career. In 2024, a third might be Kirk Cousins, who’d thrown for 4,000 yards eight straight seasons before an Achilles injury sidelined him for the last eight games of ’23. He, too, is 35.

Cousins and Wilson dueled in the inaugural Big Ten Championship — back in 2011. In the time between that duo’s departure from the Big Ten, and Stroud’s departure after the 2022 season, the Big Ten has produced just one quarterback who threw for more than 3,000 yards in the NFL: Northwestern’s Trevor Siemian, a part-time starter in college who threw for 3,401 yards in 2015 for the Broncos.

* Of course, Big Ten quarterbacks haven’t been throwing for 3,000 yards that often in their own league. Since 2014, the Big Ten has had just 27 quarterbacks reach the 3,000-yard benchmark. The Pac-12 had 34. The Big 12 has had 40. And success carries over; in 2023, five NFL quarterbacks who threw for 3,000 or more yards came from the Big 12. One, Patrick Mahomes, is the best player in the league.

The league’s hope for more prodigious quarterback play may lie in the four new schools, all of which have had first-round NFL Draft picks in the last decade.

Oregon has had three —Marcus Mariota, Justin Herbert and Bo Nix— and may have the Big Ten’s best 2024 quarterback in Gabriel, undersized at 6-0 but slippery the way Nix was.

Perhaps it’s Moss, the latest starting quarterback under Lincoln Riley, who’s coached three No. 1 overall picks (Baker Mayfield, Kyler Murray and Caleb Williams) and three more NFL Draft picks (Gardner Minshew, Jalen Hurts and Spencer Rattler.)

From 2014-2022 OSU had the best overall QB play, and Ryan Day may get the Buckeyes back there with Will Howard, a Kansas State transfer with pro potential.

Maybe it’s Allar, who looks the part of a smooth-throwing NFL passer, though he could be in a position battle with PSU backup Beau Pribula.

Raiola hasn’t been declared a starter yet, either. But he is a five-star signee — rare in the Big Ten — and part of a signature signing class of QBs for the league. Of the top 15 quarterbacks in the 2024 class, according to On3’s Industry ranking, seven signed with Big Ten teams. Five, including Raiola, are in the top nine.

None of them will be Indianapolis. In a few years, they could be.

“He’s got a great feel for the game,” Rhule said of Raiola in the spring. “He’s got a big arm. He’s calm. It’s going to be the little things — protecting the football, taking three, managing the game.”

The faster Raiola and his fellow freshmen figure out the little, the faster they can improve the Big Ten’s overall quarterback play.