We’re approaching the first anniversary of the day athletic director Trev Alberts announced the decision to bring Scott Frost back for the 2022 Nebraska football season.
On Nov. 9, 2021 – a day chock full of intrigue and storylines – Frost was retained as head coach, but with a lower salary and buyout. Four offensive assistants were fired. A million questions were raised.
Today, only one question remains: Is the Nebraska football program in better shape today than it was a year ago?
You can answer that in countless ways: wins and losses, talent gained and lost, potential for 2023 and beyond, and the big question of who replaces Frost on a full-time basis.
On Saturday, against a middling Minnesota team, the answer came back “no.” A lot of the things we saw in the Frost era (an offense that struggles to move the ball, QB depth issues, no kick-return game, and a defense that cannot generate turnovers) culminated in yet another one-score loss. But I don’t believe in making program-defining decisions based on the results of one or two games.
A year ago, I asked “Did Trev Alberts punt the biggest decision of his Nebraska tenure?” For a host of reasons (financial, political and otherwise), Trev very clearly punted. But if we’ve learned anything from our decade-plus in the Big Ten, it is that sometimes a punt is a pretty smart play in the long run.
To me, the jury is still out on whether Trev’s punt was the right move, or if he should have fired Frost last November. I understand the many reasons why Alberts gave Frost ample opportunities to get it turned around.
But a part of me wonders where Nebraska would be today if they had hired a new coach and staff after the Iowa game. Who would Alberts have hired? Is that person better or worse than whoever will take the full-time job sometime in the next 30-ish days? To me, that’s how I’m going to ultimately judge the decision.
This season has sucked. There has been very little to cheer for, little to no success, and nobody knows what 2023 will look like. If you wanted to call 2022 a lost or wasted season, I wouldn’t argue. But I remain hopeful that someday we’ll look back and see that it was all worth it.
I really hope Trev’s decision to punt eventually pays off.
Things I believe
This game exposed Nebraska’s lack of quarterback development. I don’t think it is a hot take to suggest that Nebraska wins this game with a healthy Casey Thompson. For exhibit A, look at the poorly underthrown deep ball to a wide-open Trey Palmer that fell incomplete. But Thompson is out, so the Huskers had to go with Plans B and C.
Chubba Purdy got the start and went 6-16 for 41 yards and an interception. He looked decent in the first quarter. But after a 10-yard completion to Trey Palmer early in the second quarter, Purdy was 1-8 for 7 yards, two sacks, and a forced-throw interception that my buddy Nate predicted before the ball was snapped. Ugh.
Logan Smothers saw one series in the third quarter and took over for Purdy in the fourth. His day wasn’t exactly reminiscent of Joe Ganz replacing Sam Keller. Smothers was 5-10 for 80 yards, also getting sacked twice. Almost half of his passing yards came on a desperation throw where Marcus Washington made an amazing catch.
Ironic side notes: For all the narratives about Purdy being the better passer and Smothers being the better runner, you’ll note that Smothers had four carries for four yards. Smothers chose to throw on third down on the Huskers’ final drive when he could have picked up a first down with his feet. Purdy had six carries for 24 yards and NU’s lone touchdown. Purdy threw the game’s only interception.
Purdy and Smothers were the options. Yes, there are other quarterbacks on the roster: 2021 signee Heinrich Haarberg and 2022 signee Richard Torres were both three-star prospects. Walk-on Matt Masker played in two games in 2021.
But when asked last week about playing the quarterbacks behind Purdy and Smothers, Mickey Joseph said “no” four times and appeared to laugh at the idea. That’s not exactly a glowing review for the development that has taken place this year under Mark Whipple, and in previous years under Mario Verduzco.
Add this to the list of things that need to improve dramatically under the next staff.
When you knock the starting quarterback out of the game, your day should get easier, not harder. Tanner Morgan is never going to be confused with any of the all-time greats, but he’s a decent QB and has more experience than half the guys in the NFL. So, when he was knocked out of the game at the end of the first half, it seemed like NU’s chance of winning went way up.
Enter Athan Kaliakmanis, breaker of hearts and the reason my spellcheck is about to go on strike.
Kaliakmanis completed only 50% of his passes, but one was a 45-yard bomb that set up a touchdown. He ran for only 27 yards but had a 16-yard keeper on a zone read that changed how NU defended the play. Nebraska never sacked Kaliakmanis as he led the Gophers to 20 consecutive points.
It’s a cruel irony that Nebraska was noticeably worse without its starting quarterback, while the Gophers were clearly better without theirs.
The refs kept Nebraska in the game. The Gophers are one of the least penalized team in the country. Their 35.3 penalty yards per game is seventh fewest in the country. Nebraska is 38th with 47.2 yards penalized per game.
The Big Ten crew for Saturday’s game called a total of four penalties – including a season-low two against Nebraska. All of the penalties were obvious calls. In other words, this wasn’t the same crew that dropped 23 total flags on Nebraska and Indiana a month ago.
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After a 4th & 10 pass to Marcus Washington appeared (in real time) to be caught out of bounds, the play was overturned on replay review. This led to a Nebraska field goal.
Late in the game, Minnesota had a 3rd & 7. They gave the ball to Mo Ibrahim, who was initially credited with a first down. Replay reviewed* and overturned the spot. Minnesota chose to punt the ball on 4th & 1, giving the Huskers a chance to tie the game with 2:25 left in the 4th quarter.
*I think most football fans understand that college refs really struggle to accurately spot the ball. I think the chains have come out for a measurement once in NU’s nine games. Yet, it is rare to have those spots challenged by replay. Having a spot overturned – especially late in a one-score game – approaches Powerball levels of improbability.
To be clear: I’m not suggesting anything nefarious was going on between Nebraska and the officials. I am pointing out – especially to the fans who believe in a league-wide conspiracy to screw over Nebraska through bad and missed calls – that sometimes the Huskers catch some breaks from the refs. Had Nebraska capitalized on those breaks, I guarantee Gopher fans would be squawking today.
Things I don’t know
Does Mickey Joseph have any control over what Mark Whipple does? Let’s start with two safe assumptions: 1) Mickey Joseph wants to be the full-time head coach at Nebraska. 2) If hired, Mickey would be a “CEO”-type coach, and not one that also calls plays like Frost or Osborne.
I know he’s still wearing the “interim” tag, but Mickey needs to act like the full-time head coach – especially if he wants the job. That means having some very blunt conversations with his offensive coordinator about which quarterback is in the game, and the offensive game plan.
The game plan started off strong: the opening drive went 75 yards in nine plays – seven rushes and two passes. The Huskers got the ball back quickly and drove 50 yards in 10 plays before settling for a field goal. On the second drive, NU had six rushes and four passes, three of which were incomplete.
After that, the offense completely shut down for more than two quarters. Was Joseph in Whipple’s ear to run it more? Was he asking for Logan Smothers to replace the struggling Chubba Purdy? Or did Joseph defer to the guy who was his boss less than two months ago?
I get it: they have a challenging dynamic, even without Whipple’s reputation as a I’m-gonna-do-what-I-want coordinator.
But at the end of the day, Mickey Joseph is still – interim or not – the head coach. Whipple needs to be professional enough to give his players the best chance to win. I don’t believe that happened Saturday.
What the heck happened to the offense? Nebraska’s first four plays of the game netted a total of 53 yards. In the second and third quarters, Nebraska ran 21 plays for a total of 48 yards. Where did the offense go?
We’ve talked before about how Whipple’s scripted plays are usually very successful. We probably should give credit to the Gophers for adjusting. But the Huskers ran 24 consecutive plays – spanning two full quarters – without making a first down. Minnesota’s defense isn’t THAT good.
It’s easy to pile blame on Whipple, but I’m willing to acknowledge that he’s working with an offensive line that maxes out at “mediocre,” two backup quarterbacks who struggle to complete passes, a feature back prone to tap-dancing, and receivers who drop passes at inopportune times.
Good luck trying to MacGyver 21 points out of that.
How bad will get in Ann Arbor? Way back at the start of August, the fine folks at Go Big Redcast did a series of polls asking if Nebraska would win each of their regular-season games. While the fans were in peak offseason Kool Aid chugging mode, the Michigan game was the only loss the fans predicted.
Now, after six painful losses and two firings, nobody – and I mean nobody – expects Nebraska to win this week at #3 Michigan. The point spread is north of four touchdowns. If Casey Thompson doesn’t play, the Huskers might be lucky to score 10 points. If he does play, there’s a chance he might not be able to finish the season.
In theory, Nebraska runs a very ball-control offense and does its best to shorten the game. Make the Wolverines go the length of the field and see if you can keep it out of “blowout” range.
But I expect Saturday to be a humbling experience.
5 Things I loved
- Edge rushers. Remember back in August when the trio of Ochaun Mathis, Garrett Nelson and Caleb Tanner were going to be a strength of the defense? That hasn’t materialized. But on Saturday, the edge rushers lived up to the preseason hype. They combined for 15 tackles, 5.5 TFLs and two sacks. This is a great time of year to get hot.
- Anthony Grant. If you watch highlights of Grant’s 115-yard performance, you’ll notice his decisiveness and burst. For the most part – especially in the first half where he really did damage – Grant didn’t dance and juke. He ran straight ahead and picked up the yardage that was there.
- Brian Buschini. When the offense is sputtering, it is important to have a punter who can help win the field-position battle. Buschini had six punts for an average of 55.5 yards, with a long of 61.
- Myles Farmer. Farmer was all over the field with a team-high 14 tackles including a quarterback hurry. Hopefully the injury he suffered late in the game is not serious.
- Third-down defense. Minnesota was 3 of 11 on third down. All three of the conversions came when the Gophers needed 2 yards or less. With a back like Mo Ibrahim, that’s going to happen. We can pick at the Minnesota scoring drive in the third quarter where the Gophers never faced a third down, but the defense did enough to win this game. I’ll take my chances holding teams to 3 of 11 on third down every time.
Honorable mention: Isaac Gifford, Marcus Washington, Luke Reimer, Ernest Hausmann, Sergeant Terrell Newby, and the $5 Bits of Broken Chair Trophy and all who supported the charities associated with it.
5 Areas for improvement
- Mark Whipple, offensive coordinator. You’re not a Run The Ball guy, and I accept that. But how about finding some plays that put your backup quarterbacks in a position to be successful? Find a way to get Trey Palmer the ball. Use Travis Vokolek and Chancellor Brewington. And if that doesn’t work: run the dadgum ball.
- Mark Whipple, quarterbacks coach. I’ll be honest, I had higher expectations for somebody who took Kenny Pickett from 3-star recruit to Heisman finalist. There are several 3-star QBs on the roster who might not see the field in a spring game.
- Offensive line. Four sacks allowed and a lot of pressure on the backup QBs. Some of the early run blocking looked promising, but it was not sustained.
- Turnover margin. Once again, Nebraska finished with a turnover margin of -1. Purdy threw a wounded quail of a pass (it wasn’t strong enough to qualify as a “wounded duck”) that was intercepted. Meanwhile, the defense was not particularly close to generating any kind of turnover.
- P.J. Fleck. Coach, you make $5 million a year, and work for an athletic department that brings in over $50 million a year from the Big Ten Conference. Surely, you can afford a fresh stick of gum. I cannot imagine the germs, dirt and pieces of recycled tire that stuck to his gum.
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