College Football Week 7 Matchups to Watch + Playoff Tiers & Projections

Unlike last week, this week is loaded with heavyweight ranked matchups. Since Nebraska has the week off, which games could have the most potential impact on Nebraska’s chances at making the playoffs?

#1 Texas (5-0)
#18(tied) Oklahoma (4-1)
@ Cotton Bowl Stadium (Dallas, TX)
2:30 CDT, ABC/ESPN+

Texas is more than a 2-touchdown favorite, which seems excessive since this game is almost always close, but the Longhorns have looked unstoppable while the Sooners have struggled. Texas’ most impressive win thus far was at Michigan, though that doesn’t look as impressive in hindsight as the Wolverines have struggled ever since. Oklahoma’s loss to Tennessee showed a good defense paired with an atrocious offense. OU has struggled to throw the ball, and it’s difficult to imagine them having success running the ball against Texas when Michigan couldn’t. Turnovers, penalties, and special teams seem like the only way for the Sooners to flip the script. Since Oklahoma still has a lot of difficult games remaining, for Nebraska fans, it would probably be best if they could hand the Longhorns their first loss. With Georgia coming to Austin next week, it would then be possible for the ‘Horns to have back-to-back losses, so … Boomer! Sooner!

#2 Ohio State (5-0)
#3 Oregon (5-0)
6:30 CDT, NBC/Peacock

Both teams are loaded with NFL talent, and neither team has played a highly ranked opponent until now, though Oregon still struggled early against Idaho and Boise State. Ohio State is a slight favorite, though many are picking Oregon. It’s an interesting matchup, and it could come down to a matchup between quarterbacks. Did Ohio State choose wisely in signing Will Howard when Dillon Gabriel was available? We’ll find out. Since Nebraska plays Ohio State does not play Oregon, it would be much better for Nebraska if Ohio State wins. An Ohio State win combined with a Longhorn loss would almost certainly move the Buckeyes into the #1 ranking. Regardless of outcome, it would be much better for the Huskers resume to be playing the #1 ranked Buckeyes later this month than to be playing a 1-loss team, so … “O-H!” “I-O!”

#4 Penn State (5-0)
(#26) USC (3-2)
2:30 CDT, CBS/Paramount+

Penn State is a 5.5 point favorite to win this game on the road. USC has been logging the air miles with recent trips to Michigan and Minnesota—both of which were losses—but they’re undefeated at home. If Lincoln Riley can turn this into a shootout and find a way to contain the Nittany Lions’ running backs, USC has a shot to win. James Franklin’s comments about the difficulty of traveling to Los Angeles point to a potentially sluggish start. For Nebraska fans, a Trojans loss would enable the Huskers to jump over them into the AP top 25, but since Nebraska plays USC in early November (but does not play Penn State), it would greatly help the Huskers’ strength of schedule if USC wins. Since Ohio State is the only ranked opponent left on Penn State’s schedule, USC needs to win this game for Nebraska to have a chance to move ahead of both in the pecking order for at-large playoff bids. Fight on!

#7 Alabama (4-1)
South Carolina (3-2)
11:00 CDT, ABC/ESPN+

Alabama is a 3-touchdown favorite, which seems a little high. It would be a huge upset, and it seems unlikely that the Tide would fall in back-to-back weeks to heavy underdogs. Stranger things have happened. Lick ‘em!

#10 Ole Miss (5-1)
#15 LSU (4-1)
6:30 CDT, ABC/ESPN+

This game promises lots of scoring. Ole Miss’s defense seems improved over last year’s, but the game is in Baton Rouge, where Brian Kelly’s teams have only lost once since he took over in 2022. Both teams have a loss, and either team would be in the top ten with a win. Both teams have similar remaining schedules with games against Arkansas, Florida, and Oklahoma. While the Rebels still have to play Georgia at home, the Tigers will host Alabama. Besides those games, LSU also has yet to play Texas A&M and a newly rejuvenated Vanderbilt, so Ole Miss definitely has the easier schedule. With that in mind it would probably be better for Nebraska if Ole Miss loses their second this week. Geaux Tigers!

#11 Iowa State (5-0)
West Virginia (3-2)
7:00 PM CDT, Fox

Iowa State is one of the remaining undefeated teams, but their toughest game so far was against Iowa, which makes them tough to gauge. West Virginia’s only losses are to #4 Penn State and #22 Pitt, both of whom are undefeated. The Mountaineers seem to be getting stronger, and Morgantown isn’t an easy place to play. For Nebraska fans, it is imperative that as many Big 12 teams as possible have 2 or more losses: Fight, Mountaineers!

Arizona (3-2)
#14 BYU (5-0)
3:00 PM CDT, Fox

BYU is also one of the few remaining undefeated teams. Arizona should match up relatively well. BYU is favored by 3.5 points, which seems more or less equal to their homefield advantage. Nebraska needs Big 12 teams to have multiple losses, so … Go ‘Cats!

#16 Utah (4-1)
Arizona State (4-1)
Friday, 9:30 PM CDT, ESPN

Whoever loses this game will have 2 losses, so it doesn’t matter too much to Nebraska fans who to root for. Utah seems to be the better team though, so … Fight, Devils, down the field!

#18(tied) Kansas State (4-1)
Colorado (4-1)
9:15 PM CDT, ESPN

Kansas State has the top rushing offense in the Big 12, and Colorado has a non-existent rushing offense combined with the top passing offense in the Big 12. Dylan Edwards, the Wildcats’ top running back, transferred from Colorado after last season. Kansas State seems to have the better defense, but the Buffaloes’ defense looked very good against UCF, who struggled to run against them. Colorado currently only has 3 votes in the AP poll, but they would likely rocket into the top 25 with a win as they would take away many of K-State’s AP votes. As much as Husker fans won’t like it, a Colorado victory would do 2 things to help Nebraska: it would boost the Huskers’ strength of schedule, and it would give the Wildcats a 2nd loss, which would likely knock them out of the AP rankings. Don’t hate the messenger: Go Buffs!

Cal (3-2)
#22 Pitt (5-0)
2:30 PM CDT, ESPN

Pitt is also one of the last undefeated teams, but their most impressive win was a narrow victory at home over West Virginia. Cal should give them a good game. Nebraska fans should root for the Panthers to fall prey to the Calgorithm: Roll on, you Golden Bear! (Yeah, even Cal’s battle cry sounds like a pick-up line from the Castro District.)

Nebraska’s Other Opponents’ Games (Listed in BOLD)
UTEP (0-5) @ Western Kentucky (5-1), Thursday @ 7:00 CDT, ESPNU
Northern Iowa (2-3) @ South Dakota (4-1), 2:00 CDT, Midco Sports Plus/ESPN+
Purdue (1-4) @ Illinois (4-1), 2:30 CDT, FS1
Wisconsin (3-2) @ Rutgers (4-1), 11:00 CDT, BTN
#18(tie) Indiana (6-0) BYE
Minnesota (3-3) @ UCLA (1-4), 8:00, BTN
Washington (2-2) @ Iowa (3-2), 11:00 CDT, Fox

Group of 5 Teams to Watch

There are only 3 undefeated teams left from the non-Power 4 conferences:
~Liberty (5-0) defeated Florida International in overtime on Tuesday night. They don’t play again until October 23 against Kennesaw State.
~Navy (5-0) has a bye this week.
~Army (5-0) hosts UAB this week at 11:00 on CBSSN.

The highest ranked G5 team is #17 Boise State (4-1), who travels to Hawai’i (2-3) for a 10:00 PM (CDT) game on FBS1. What should be the best G5 game this week is in the Sun Belt where Coastal Carolina (4-1) travels to James Madison (4-1) to play at 6:30 CDT on ESPN2.

Playoff Projections by Tiers

To organize the teams in contention for playoff berths, all of the Power 4 conference members (+ Notre Dame) have been divided into tiers. Any team with 2 losses or more are not included as it’s highly unlikely that any of them will be in contention at the end, though when/if that changes, they will be re-listed as appropriate. The tiers mostly correlate with which teams have the fewest losses, but with some exceptions. I have NOT arranged the tiers based on who is most likely to make the playoffs, which is what other commentators have done. Instead, I have organized them based on how many more losses a team can sustain and still be legitimately considered a playoff contender. The results are similar in general, but my criteria leaves fewer Tier 1 teams.

Tier 1

The Tier 1 teams are the highest ranked and undefeated teams who seem to be able to lose 2 more games and still have a likely shot at the playoffs. Georgia and Alabama were examples of Tier 1 teams who lost a game, yet still barely dropped in the polls. If they lose another close game to a highly ranked opponent, even with two losses they will almost certainly still get an invitation to the playoffs as an at-large team.

Tier 2

Tier 2 teams are those who can afford to lose one more game and would still likely make the playoffs. These are predominantly undefeated teams who were not initially ranked in the top 5 The exceptions are Georgia, Alabama, Tennessee, Clemson, and Notre Dame, who are one-loss teams who could likely absorb one more loss and still be in strong consideration for a playoff spot.

Tier 3

Tier 3 teams are those who would likely make the playoffs if they win the rest of their games. In other words, they cannot afford any more losses. There are 17 teams left in the Power 4 conferences who have 1 loss AND did not start the season highly ranked. Nebraska is in this group. Most are highly unlikely to win out the rest of the way, so each will be removed as those teams falter.

Here is what the Power 4 conferences look like when the top teams are broken down into tiers:

SEC

Tier 1

Texas (5-0)

Tier 2

Alabama (4-1)

Georgia (4-1)

Tennessee (4-1)

Tier 3

Ole Miss (5-1)

LSU (4-1)

Texas A&M (5-1)

Oklahoma (4-1)

Missouri (4-1)

Big Ten

Tier 1

Ohio State (5-0)

Tier 2

Oregon (5-0)

Penn State (5-0)

Indiana (6-0)

Tier 3

Illinois (4-1)

Nebraska (5-1)

Rutgers (4-1)

ACC

Tier 1

[none]

Tier 2

Miami (6-0)

Pitt (5-0)

Clemson (4-1)

Tier 3

Duke (5-1)

SMU (5-1)

Syracuse (4-1)

Virginia (4-1)

Big 12

Tier 1

[none]

Tier 2

Iowa State (5-0)

BYU (5-0)

Tier 3

Texas Tech (5-1)

Colorado (4-1)

Kansas State (4-1)

Utah (4-1)

Arizona State (4-1)

Independents

Tier 1

[none]

Tier 2

Notre Dame (4-1)

My Projected Final Rankings for College Football Playoffs
1. Ohio State (13-0 Big Ten champ)
2. Georgia (12-1 SEC champ)
3. Clemson (12-1 ACC champ)
4. Utah (12-1 Big 12 champ)
5. Texas (11-1)
6. Oregon (11-1)
7. Notre Dame (11-1)
8. Alabama (11-2 – loses SEC championship game)
9. Penn State (11-2 – loses Big Ten championship game)
10 Ole Miss (10-2)
11. Miami (11-2 – loses ACC championship game)
12. Boise State (12-1 Mountain West champ)

Teams on the bubble for at-large bids: Tennessee, LSU, Texas A&M, Indiana, Illinois, Nebraska, Rutgers, Kansas State, Iowa State, BYU

Teams on the bubble for 5th highest ranked conference champion: Army, Navy, Memphis, James Madison, UNLV, Washington State, Liberty

The list of tiers will be updated each week as the season evolves. A Tier 4 will be added as soon as the number of undefeated and 1-loss teams dwindles down far enough to make it necessary, and the number of 2-loss teams has dwindled down far enough to make it manageable. Here is what last week’s projections looked like.

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