How will perceived elites perform with their backs against the wall during college football’s second half? We’re in for a few potential season-defining matchups in the College Football Playoff picture for programs on the bubble before the end of October, including several inside the current top 15 of the AP Top 25 who appear to be leaking oil in recent weeks.
Most expected a battle of unbeatens Saturday in Knoxville for Alabama-Tennessee, but road upset losses as heavy favorites for the Crimson Tide and Volunteers this month have increased the stakes at Neyland Stadium. Alabama’s defense is struggling and not playoff-caliber, at least at the moment, while Tennessee is wading through growing pains offensively with first-year starting quarterback Nico Iamaleava.
That SEC showdown leads the Week 8 playoff bubble watch with Indiana-Nebraska, Auburn-Missouri and LSU-Arkansas also jumping to the forefront as featured games to watch. With the first set of College Football Playoff Rankings coming in a couple of weeks, résumés aren’t yet complete and piling up quality wins is top priority as the second half of the season begins.
MORE: Projected College Football Playoff bracket in Week 8
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College Football Playoff Bubble Watch: Week 8
Alabama (-330) at Tennessee: Why is Alabama on the outside looking in right now despite being ranked No. 7 in the AP poll and near the top of the SEC standings? For starters, this is not the same Crimson Tide team we watched handle Georgia a few weeks ago. The last two games bring cause for concern with Tennessee, Missouri and LSU coming up on the slate. A second loss — or worse, a 1-2 mark over the stretch — would be season-deflating for Kalen DeBoer in his first season.
Tennessee (+100) vs. Alabama: Much like the Crimson Tide, the Vols have lost their initial early season luster in recent appearances. The loss to Arkansas revealed cracks in the foundation and, let’s be honest, Tennessee was lucky to escape Florida’s upset bid last time out in Knoxville with this weekend’s Third Saturday in October showdown with Alabama looming. The defense continues to play at a championship level, but it’s the other side of the football — surprisingly — that doesn’t seem to be on the same page at the moment.
Army (+1800) vs. East Carolina: Jeff Monken and the Black Knights are executing flawlessly on offense, and they’re taking the familiar game-by-game approach after jumping into the top 25 as one of three Group of Five remaining unbeatens. The biggest game of the year is Notre Dame in late November, but for that mammoth matchup to hold importance, Army needs to keep winning.
Missouri (+350) vs. Auburn: The blowout loss to Texas A&M this month was a wake-up call for the Tigers, and the next three games are pivotal toward staying in the playoff conversation down the stretch beginning with Saturday’s home date with Auburn. Hugh Freeze’s squad is winless in SEC play, so a possible upset loss would be essentially season-squashing for Missouri.
LSU (+140) at Arkansas: Tigers beware — road games have proven brutal for top-25 teams in the SEC this season. LSU’s win in Death Valley last week against Ole Miss was a potential season-saver for Brian Kelly and keeps every goal out front of this team moving forward.
Indiana (+240) vs. Nebraska: Can the Hoosiers continue their surge under first-year coach Curt Cignetti? Over the final six games, Michigan and Ohio State are the only nationally ranked opponents standing between a Big Ten Championship Game berth or potential at-large playoff selection with a single loss. Indiana needs to keep its unblemished record intact this weekend against the Huskers to continue this unexpected magic in 2024.
Texas Tech (+850) vs. Baylor: Welcome to the playoff bubble, Red Raiders. One of three Big 12 teams unbeaten in conference play, Texas Tech’s trip to Iowa State on Nov. 2 will be revealing. The Cyclones are projected as the “last team in” at the moment. Four of Texas Tech’s five wins this fall are by a single possession.
Others in the mix: SMU (+230) and Pittsburgh (+800) have opportunities during the season’s second half. They’ll meet on Nov. 2 in Texas, and if the Mustangs win that one and eventually finish 11-1, they’ll reach the ACC Championship Game if the Panthers are able to topple Clemson on Nov. 16 at home. Pittsburgh is unbeaten for the first time since 1982 and controls its own destiny the rest of the way.
Lane Kiffin wants the LSU game back. Ole Miss (+190) led throughout last week’s loss in Baton Rouge before squandering the lead in the final minute of regulation on fourth down and faltering in overtime for the Rebels’ second SEC setback. Even winning out — including a win over Georgia in a few weeks — might not be enough to reach the playoff with 10 wins since we’re expecting a logjam of SEC teams with the same record and comparable resumes.
Joining Army as a pair of Group of Five unbeatens, Navy (+2400) and Liberty (+650) will catch the selection committee’s focus if the Midshipmen and Flames continue winning. Navy has the bigger opportunity down the stretch, however. The Midshipmen play Notre Dame in East Rutherford, New Jersey, on Oct. 26 and already have a win over Memphis under their belts. If Liberty finishes 13-0 as Conference USA champion, the Flames are still going to need immense help since their strength of schedule is amongst the nation’s worst.
About the expanded CFP
The first College Football Playoff Rankings from the selection committee will be released on Nov. 5, then every Tuesday night through Dec. 3 leading up to Selection Sunday (Dec. 8). The top-ranked team in the first CFP Rankings has gone on to win the national championship only twice since 2014.
In the first season of the 12-team playoff format, the four highest-ranked conference champions will be seeded 1-4 and receive first-round byes in December. Remaining teams, including the fifth conference champion, will be seeded 5-12 based on the selection committee’s opinion.
First-round games on campus start Dec. 20 with CFP quarterfinals at bowl sites beginning Dec. 31. The semifinals at the Orange Bowl and Cotton Bowl will be played Jan. 9 and 10, respectively. The national championship is set for Jan. 20 at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta.
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