This past Saturday was another electric day in college football.
Oregon took down second-ranked Ohio State in a top three matchup at Autzen Stadium, Penn State took down USC in an overtime thriller, Alabama narrowly escaped consecutive losses in a 27-25 nail-biter against South Carolina, and both Ole Miss at LSU and Florida at Tennessee went to overtime— with the home team winning in both of those games.
With weekends like this past one, lengthy discussions ensue between myself and the fine people at FOX Sports every week as we plan our production for Big Noon Kickoff. Every Sunday night, I reflect on what transpired the day before, and send out a lengthy email to producers, researchers, and my colleagues on air about my thoughts on what happened, as well as what’s notable for the upcoming week.
I’ve decided to peel back the curtain and share those thoughts with you all, because everyone should rejoice in the splendor that is college football.
This week, seven ranked teams will be on the road against unranked opponents, along with three ranked vs. ranked matchups taking place. We’ll get into those shortly. Eight of the teams ranked in the top 10 of the AP poll play this weekend, and 20 of the top 25 have action as well.
Let’s dive into my thoughts and matchups to watch for in Week 8.
Another top five matchup: Georgia at Texas
Seriously, how lucky are we as college football fans? Last week we got the Buckeyes visiting the Ducks in Eugene in what ended up being an absolute barn-barner, and this week we have the Bulldogs heading to Austin. Will this game produce the national champ and/or the Heisman winner?
While we all think Texas‘ defense is really good, keep in mind the Power 4 offenses they’ve faced this year are Michigan, Mississippi State and Oklahoma. All of them are pretty dreadful when you look at them from an expected points added (EPA) perspective. Of the 68 Power 4 teams, the Wolverines rank 59th, the Sooners are 68th and the Bulldogs are 47th.
One thing to keep an eye on is Georgia’s injury report. Key players like Smael Mondon (linebacker), Tate Ratledge (offensive line) and Jared Wilson (offensive line) have all been dealing with injuries. For Texas, star receiver Isaiah Bond was injured last week, making his status also worth keeping an eye on. This will be the third top five matchup of the year, and it should be just as electric as the first two (Ohio State vs Oregon, Alabama vs Georgia).
Huge matchup in Knoxville
Speaking of Alabama, something to think about is how their defense this season compares to what we’ve seen in previous years under Nick Saban. What’s changed the most? Is it scheme, players, or coaching? Well for starters, their roster is still loaded. Despite several key players transferring after Saban announced his retirement, Kalen DeBoer was able to retain several of them and bring in more talent through the portal. They are the top ranked team in 247Sports’ 2024 “team talent composite” score— a metric that examines and ranks every FBS team, accounting for transfers, dismissals and other early departures, and based on how their players were rated in high school.
From a scheme and coaching perspective, defensive coordinator Kane Wommack runs a 4-2-5 which differs from Saban’s traditional 3-4 base. As Indiana’s defensive coordinator from 2019-20, his unit had 17 interceptions which was the second-most in the country. Similar results have been seen so far, as the Tide has six pics in six games.
Tennessee quarterback Nico Iamaleava has thrown three touchdown passes and three interceptions against Power Conference opponents this season. The Vols will need him to improve quickly, as history isn’t on their side either. Since 2007, Tennessee is 2-41 against AP top 10 opponents and 1-16 against Alabama. Is this a “prove it” game for the Tide, or will the Vols win their second game against them in the last three years? We’ll find out Saturday.
Howlin’ Hoosiers
Who said Indiana was a basketball school? The Hoosiers are 6-0 for the second time in school history, and have scored 40+ points in five straight games for the first time ever as well. Curt Cignetti has transformed this program just like he transformed James Madison into a serious FBS school. The only Power 4 team with a higher EPA than the Hoosiers are my Hurricanes. They have a huge matchup with a Nebraska team who has a freshman phenom under center in Dylan Raiola. At 5-1, the Huskers are off to their best start through six games since going 6-0 in the 2016 season. Should be a good one in Bloomington this Saturday.
Power 4 Parity
When you sit back and dissect why Alabama has struggled in recent weeks after beating Georgia, or why perennial powerhouses like Michigan, Tennessee and Notre Dame have already lost a game or two— maybe it’s as simple as realizing that college football parity is at an all-time high. I can’t remember a time where there was so much uncertainty at the top of the leagues. The ACC is probably going to be won by Clemson or Miami, but the Big Ten could be Oregon, Ohio State or Penn State (even though I don’t know if I truly believe in Penn State yet). The Big 12 could be Iowa State, Kansas State, BYU, and heck Texas Tech could even be in the running.
And then you have the monster that is the SEC, which Texas, Georgia, Bama, Tennessee and Texas A&M will all have a shot at. It’s far from the “predictable, heavy at the top” scenario which many expected this season. To put it simply, eight top 10 teams have lost to unranked opponents already. The last time that happened in the first seven weeks of the season was in 2007. Appreciate this moment while it lasts.
Servicemen keep winning
This is the first time since 1960 that both Army and Navy are ranked in the top 25 of the AP poll in the same week!
The Black Knights are 6-0 for the first time since the 1996 season, and with their dominant win over UAB, they extended their winning streak to 10 straight games— the longest active win streak in FBS. They’re 15-point favorites against East Carolina this week.
Navy on the other hand, is 5-0 and faces Charlotte this Saturday as 17-point favorites. If Brian Newberry’s squad can get the victory, it would be the first time since 1926 that both Army and Navy each started 6-0.
We’re not in Kansas anymore… or are we?
Kansas has long been considered one of the worst football programs in the Big 12 in recent memory. From 2000 to 2020, their .313 win pct ranked 125th out of 131 FBS teams in that timeframe, which was also the worst of all Power Conference teams.
But then came Lance Leipold.
The six-time Division III champion at Wisconsin-Whitewater turned a two-win team in 2021 into a six-win team in 2022 and then into an incredible nine-win team last season. The 9-4 record in 2023 was their second-best since 2000, trailing only a 12-1 season in 2007. They entered this season at +900 to win the Big 12, which was tied for the fourth-best odds of any team in the conference.
But so far, they’ve looked like the Kansas of old. The Jayhawks are a surprising 1-5 and 0-3 in conference play despite bringing back dual-threat quarterback Jalon Daniels. It’ll be interesting to see if and how Leipold rallies his team after a disappointing start to the year.
Trojans and Terps both need a win
USC and Maryland are both 3-3, and both programs bring two-game losing streaks into this matchup. This will be the battle to avoid falling below .500. The Trojans are 5-8 in their last 13 games, and Lincoln Riley has been a little salty when questioned about all the close losses.
There are a few games like that this week… “disappointment bowls” per se. It could be disappointment after a close loss, or because of season-altering injury or just not meeting expectations. But the loser in these games could go even further south— quick, fast and in a hurry! Matchups that fit this bill are TCU at Utah, Kentucky at Florida, Colorado at Arizona, NC State at Cal and South Carolina at Oklahoma.
Fayetville a trap… again!
A few weeks ago I said Fayetteville would be a trap for the then-undefeated Vols, and it was. This week I think it could be a trap for an LSU squad that is coming off an emotional upset win in overtime against Ole Miss. Tennessee was fresh off a similar type of win when they faced the Razorbacks, having beat 15th ranked Oklahoma in Norman the week before.
Sam Pittman has also had extra time to prepare for this game, as Arkansas was on bye this week. However, be sure to keep an eye on Taylen Green’s status. Pittman said he’s practicing and will likely play this Saturday, but if that’s not the case— then this looks like an easier task for Brian Kelly’s squad. Green is a dynamic player, being one of two Power 4 quarterbacks with 1,500 pass yards and 300 rush yards (Haynes King- Georgia Tech).
Surprising Sun Devils
Arizona State’s win total heading into the season was listed at four, and was one of the win total bets I heard about the most this offseason. Several people thought taking the under was a slam dunk bet given their roster and performance last season.
Well, they couldn’t have been more wrong. The Sun Devils are 5-1 and took down 16th ranked Utah last Friday even with Cam Rising’s return. Keep in mind that the Utes were the preseason favorites to win the conference as well. This week, Kenny Dillingham’s team has Cincinnati— another big test against a gritty conference opponent.
The Bearcats are 4-2, with losses to an undefeated Pittsburgh and a 5-1 Texas Tech team. They lost those two games by a combined four points too. The biggest thing on ASU’s side is Cam Skattebo, one of the most electric players in the country right now. The former Sacramento State Hornet has 1,023 scrimmage yards which is the third-most in FBS, behind Heisman favorite Ashton Jeanty and North Carolina’s Omarion Hampton. He is a flat-out baller and I’m excited to see how he plays against Scott Satterfield’s defense.
Cardiac Canes take on last-minute Louisville
The average fan might not know this, but there are so many ties between these two programs. Both head coaches are alumnus of their respective programs, and have been on the rise over the past few years. Louisville has recruited South Florida extremely well for quite some time now, most notably getting Broward County native Lamar Jackson to sign with them out of high school in 2015. On the current roster, there are seven players from the greater Miami area, headlined by receiver Ja’Corey Brooks— who spent three seasons at Alabama and is currently 12th in FBS and second in the ACC in receiving yards.
Miami is one week removed from completing a 25-point comeback on the road vs Cal— their largest comeback win since 2003— while Louisville’s last three games have all been one-score affairs. And don’t forget that the Canes’ game before Cal was also decided on the final play, with Virginia Tech having a Hail Mary overturned. There’s more than a good chance that this one will come down to the final minutes.
Tyler Terrific
James Franklin had been boasting about Tyler Warren being one of the best tight-ends in the country for quite some time. But in the post-game presser against USC, he said that it’s time to start talking about him as one of the greatest players in the sport— regardless of position. Warren finished the overtime thriller against the Trojans with 17 receptions for 224 receiving yards. The 17 receptions tied the FBS record for most catches by a tight-end in a single game, and the 224 yards was the second-most in a game in Penn State history. His 513 receiving yards on the season are the second-most of any tight-end in FBS, and the most of any Power 4 player at the position.
Temperature gauge in Columbus
Buckeye fans might be livid after what easily could’ve been a win against the third-ranked team in the country at the time last week. Sure, Ryan Day is 2-6 vs top five opponents in his career and has lost his last four such matchups— but the man is still 61-9 as a head coach and 41-4 in Big Ten play. Jeremiah Smith and Emeka Egbuka combined for 193 receiving yards and two scores and they still managed 141 yards and two scores on the ground behind Quinshon Judkins and TreyVeon Henderson. This loss coming at this point in the season might be a blessing in disguise for them. Expect Day and his staff to use this bye week to ensure a dominant performance against Nebraska on October 26th.
Trap game for the Aggies?
Mississippi State is probably the worst team in the SEC, currently 1-5 and 0-3 in conference play. They host Texas A&M this week, who has quietly rattled off five wins in a row after a 10-point loss to Notre Dame in their season opener. The Aggies have a huge game against LSU last week, which became an even more interesting matchup given the Tigers’ overtime win against Ole Miss this past Saturday. That being said, don’t be shocked if the Aggies look past this week and find themselves in a closer than expected game with the Bulldogs. It seems like that’s what happened to Georgia this past week, who only beat them 41-31 despite being 34-point favorites. Might Mike Elko’s squad sleep walk into this one too?
Chris “The Bear” Fallica has covered sports for nearly three decades. While college football has been his focus, he also enjoys the NFL, Soccer, Golf, Tennis, MLB, NHL and Horse Racing, with an “occasional” wager on such events. Chris recently won the inaugural Circa Football Invitational and finished in the Top 10 of the Golden Nugget Football Contest. He’s a multiple-time qualifier for the NHC Handicapping Championship. Remember, “The less you bet, the more you lose when you win!” Follow him on Twitter @chrisfallica.
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