Chasing 3 – Dylan doesn’t have to be good, he just has to not suck

Maybe expectations are something that we can think about in a rational way. It is surprising to me that expectations and hype feel very moderated around the Huskersphere, especially compared to some periods in the Scott Frost era. This is probably healthy, but at the same time, I think people need to remember that Matt Rhule matched Scott Frost's best record in season one behind some of the worst QB play that a terrible QB school has ever had to endure. Plus 5-star Dylan Raiola is coming in despite Scott Frost's best efforts to keep him away from Lincoln.

Dylan doesn't have to be great, he just has to not suck

All offseason, Nebraska has been putting out content that they are Chasing 3 in reference to their 5 losses by one score (stop me if you have heard this one before). But does anyone remember just what level those quarterbacks (none of whom will be starting in college this year despite eligibility) played at last year in those #onescorelosses? Let's look:

Minnesota: L 10-13

• Jeff Simms
• 11 Comp, 19 Att, 114 yards (57.9%)
• 1 TD, 3 INT, 3 Sacks
• 94.1 QBR

Michigan State: L 17-20

• Heinrich Haarberg
• 12 Comp, 28 Att, 129 yards (42.9%)
• 0 TD, 2 INT, 7 Sacks
• 67.3 QBR

Maryland: L 10-13

• Jeff Simms, Chubba Purdy, Heinrich Haarberg
• 10 Comp, 21 Att, 86 yards (47.6%)
• 0 TD, 4 INT, 1 Sacks
• 67.3 QBR

Wisconsin: L 17-24 (OT)

• Chubba Purdy
• 15 Comp, 24 Att, 169 yards (62.5%)
• 1 TD, 1 INT, 2 Sacks
• 127.1 QBR

Iowa: L 10-13

• Chubba Purdy
• 15 Comp, 28 Att, 189 yards (53.6%)
• 1 TD, 1 INT, 3 Sacks
• 114.9 QBR

One Score Losses Averages:

• Jeff Simms, Chubba Purdy, Heinrich Haarberg
• 12.6 Comp, 24.0 Att, 137.4 yards (52.5%)
• 0.6 TD, 2.2 INT, 3.2 Sacks
• 90.5 QBR

So like those don't seem great, but how bad are they?

So like I said, Dylan doesn't have to be great, he just has to not suck. For comparison across the whole 2023 CFB season, here is where the Nebraska QB room would have ranked nationally:

• Completion %: 122nd (their actual ranking!)
• Passing Yards: 127th (actually better than their season long ranking and average!)
• Yards/Attempt: 127th
• QBR: 134th (there were only 133 teams)

So what would dead average look like?

• Dylan Raiola
• 19.1 Comp, 31.4 Att, 221.6 yards (60.81%)
• 2.0 TD, 0.8 INT, 2.0 Sacks
• 133.6 QBR

In short, he does not have to be a hero day one, and I think it is important that we all keep that in mind. I think he will be amazing, but there will be some roadbumps.