Big Ten expert picks 2024: Most overrated and underrated teams, projected order of finish, bold predictions

Michigan is coming off its first national championship since 1997, and its reward is a difficult schedule in an expanded conference — now featuring Oregon, USC, UCLA and Washington from the Pac-12 — that eyes multiple berths in the 12-team College Football Playoff. In fact, the Big Ten likely boasts a handful of teams that will begin the 2024 season with some sort of CFP aspirations. 

The Wolverines’ top rival, Ohio State, is among them, but the Buckeyes aren’t just looking to make it back to the CFP; they have serious national title dreams after coach Ryan Day went all-in during the offseason with a revamped approach that included poaching top transfers from the portal and a flashy new offensive coordinator — Chip Kelly, who was the sitting coach at UCLA. While stopping a three-game skid against the Wolverines is a goal for Ohio State in 2024, so is winning a national title.

The Buckeyes are the overwhelming favorite to at least win the Big Ten, according to most of our college football experts, but there’s little consensus elsewhere. Many teams that are considered “overrated” by some are “underrated” by others, which shows just how difficult it is to peg the pecking order in this new divisionless, 18-team league. 

Let’s have a look as our CBS Sports college football experts have provided their picks and predictions for the Big Ten ahead of the 2024 season.

Most overrated team

Michigan: The Wolverines should still have one of the best defenses in college football, but how far can the offense fall for this team to stay in the Big Ten race? There’s a giant question mark at quarterback and the wide receivers provide little help. New coach Sherrone Moore cut his teeth along the offensive line, but that entire unit is new. Running back Donovan Edwards and tight end Colston Loveland provide some building blocks, but is that enough? Making matters worse, Michigan plays three of the top four teams in the preseason AP Top 25. Michigan should still be a borderline top-25 team, but the Wolverines are closer to the pack than the contenders. — Shehan Jeyarajah (Richard Johnson, Will Backus) 

Wisconsin: This isn’t a huge gripe for me. I’m just two spots lower than where the Cleveland.com media poll had Wisconsin (No. 7), but I would rather have a couple of teams ahead of the Badgers given some of the uncertainty heading into the year. First is the quarterback position, where Miami transfer Tyler Van Dyke has been tasked with jump-starting an offense that never quite caught its stride in the first year of the “Dairy Raid.” Van Dyke at his best was one of the best freshmen in the country, but the performances have been inconsistent since then. Then there’s projecting where Wisconsin will finish, and I think they got a tough draw with some coin-flip games (Iowa, Nebraska) on the road, while games that are projected losses (Penn State, Oregon) at home. — Chip Patterson

USC: The Trojans figure to take a step back this season with Caleb Williams in the NFL. Miller Moss will be taking over, and nothing against Moss, but that’s a step back. The offensive line will have to pass protect better than it did for Williams if this offense is to succeed. Defensively, the Trojans were dreadful last season. The hope is that new defensive coordinator D’Anton Lynn can turn things around. If USC is not vastly improved on that side of the ball, the Trojans could be looking at as many as four conference losses, which don’t include games against LSU and Notre Dame. — Jerry Palm (Dennis Dodd)

Northwestern: The Wildcats exceeded anybody’s expectations last season after the surprising offseason dismissal of Pat Fitzgerald, but can they repeat the feat now that people know they’re coming? Six of the team’s eight wins last year were the one-score variety, and their +13 turnover margin was third-best in the nation. Both of those are hard to repeat when you don’t have elite talent. I expect the ‘Cats to take a step back in 2024. — Tom Fornelli 

Washington: We saw TCU fail to make a bowl game in 2023 just one season after playing for the national championship. The same thing could happen with Washington, which lost head coach Kalen DeBoer and nearly every starter from a 14-1 squad. The Huskies made a great hire in Jedd Fisch from Arizona, but they have too many new faces to be competitive in a new conference during a transition for the roster, staff and program. — David Cobb

Most underrated team

Indiana: In Curt Cignetti we trust. The guy has never had a losing season as a head coach. People thought James Madison would have a rough transition to the FBS, but the Dukes went 19-4 over the past two years and finished the 2023 season ranked. The Big Ten is another sharp incline in terms of difficulty for Cignetti, but he’s earned some benefit of the doubt. He also brought a lot of key players from JMU with him to help smooth the transition. Indiana’s not a bottom-feeder, and Cignetti has a good shot at getting the Hoosiers back to a bowl.  — Backus (Patterson, Cobb) 

USC: Not expecting much from the Trojans this season makes all the sense in the world. They disappointed last year with the No. 1 pick in the draft and reigning Heisman winner Caleb Williams, and he’s gone. Still, I have faith in Lincoln Riley offenses, and this program has overhauled its defensive staff. The Trojans don’t need to be great defensively; they just need to be OK to cause problems for a lot of Big Ten teams. — Fornelli 

Nebraska: The Cornhuskers are somehow withstanding the longest bowl drought in the power conferences, an astonishing feat for such a proud program. Not to worry, those demons will be exorcised this season. Coach Matt Rhule is a developmental wizard and the benefits should truly start to show up in Year 2. The defense took a step towards Blackshirt status in defensive coordinator Tony White’s first season and will take another step in 2024. However, the real upside comes on offense with five-star quarterback Dylan Raiola leading the offense alongside a plethora of intriguing skill talents. With only three preseason ranked teams on the schedule, the sky’s the limit in Lincoln.  — Jeyarajah 

Rutgers: Full disclosure: I’m in the tank for Rutgers this season. The planets — and the Jersey turnpike — have aligned. Who knew Greg Schiano had the Big Ten’s leading rusher (Kyle Monangai)? The schedule is Knight friendly. Wisconsin and UCLA come to Rutgers. Minnesota quarterback Athan Kaliakmanis is an upgrade and should thrive reuniting with offensive coordinator Kirk Ciarrocca. Watch Dymere Miller, a big-time FSC transfer from Monmouth. Tons of momentum after a Pinstripe Bowl win over Miami. For pure party purposes, pay attention to the Oct. 25 game at USC. On a Friday night on network television (Fox), it will be possible to have last call in Piscataway and happy hour in LA at the same time. The game begins at 11 pm ET. — Dodd (Johnson, Palm)  

Bold predictions

• Dennis Dodd: A Black Friday loss at Iowa keeps Nebraska out of the playoff after a 6-1 start. The Huskers go into the finale at 8-3 with a ninth win putting the Huskers in the CFP discussion. Matt Rhule is Big Ten Coach of the Year and the Huskers go bowling for the first time in eight years. 
• Tom Fornelli: After the top four teams separate themselves from the pack, the No. 5 and No. 16 teams will only be separated by two games in the conference standings.
• Chip Patterson: Penn State will not only make the CFP for the first time but advance with a first-round win. The Nittany Lions have performed well enough as a program to have made a 12-team model a half-dozen times already, so after finally breaking through, look for James Franklin’s group to capitalize on the opportunity. 
• Shehan Jeyajarah: Penn State will be the biggest winner of the expanded College Football Playoff. The Nittany Lions have slotted firmly behind Ohio State and Michigan in the Big Ten, but the expanded field will set up Penn State winning two playoff games and giving themselves their best chance at a title in 40 years. 
• Richard Johnson: Michigan misses the CFP. This Wolverines team will have approximately the same defensive caliber but with a drop-off on offense. With actual threats on the schedule, they will be on the outside looking in at the inaugural 12-team dance. The reload won’t exactly be plug-and-play in Ann Arbor.
• David Cobb: The Big Ten will lead the way in CFP bids with four teams making the 12-team field. But it won’t be the four teams that most expect: Iowa will ride a favorable schedule to 10 wins and crack the CFP.
• Jerry Palm: Last year’s CFP title game participants, Michigan and Washington, now live together in the Big Ten. While the league will put at least three teams in the newly expanded playoff, neither of those two will be among them. In fact, the Huskies may struggle to finish in the top 10 of its new home.
• Will Backus: Rutgers will have its first-ever winning record in Big Ten play. The Scarlet Knights have one of the best running backs in the nation, a veteran squad that’s fully bought into Greg Schiano and a schedule that sees them avoid Ohio State, Oregon, Michigan and Penn State.

Big Ten predicted order of finish

Big Ten champion

Ohio State: The most complete roster in college football will obviously win the Big Ten en route to a national championship. The Chip Kelly effect will give the Buckeyes offense an added dimension in the run game combined with the bones of Ryan Day’s always great passing attack led by Will Howard. The defense won’t drop off much from last year’s standout unit, and O-H-I-O will R-O-L-L all the way to Indy. — Johnson (Dodd, Fornelli, Patterson, Jeyarajah, Palm, Backus)

Oregon: Oregon is a program on the rise under third-year coach Dan Lanning, and the Ducks have all they need to take the Big Ten by storm. Oklahoma transfer Dillon Gabriel is more than capable of filling Bo Nix’s shoes at quarterback, and he’s surrounded by elite skill talent and a loaded offensive line. Oregon’s defense doesn’t look quite as imposing as Ohio State’s, but the Ducks should have a more explosive offense. That offense will carry Oregon to at least one victory over the Buckeyes, and maybe two if there is a rematch of their Oct. 12 meeting in the Big Ten Championship Game. — Cobb