Nebraska football travels on the road for the first time this Saturday against Purdue.
Purdue has struggled on both sides of the ball this season, ranking outside the top 90 in scoring offense and defense. Even though this is just the first conference game for the Boilermakers, they are already in must-win territory if Ryan Walters hopes to keep the train on track and make a bowl game this season. A third loss early in the season could spell disaster for them, with four games left against AP Top 20 opponents.
Nebraska is also coming into this game with something to prove after its first loss of the season. Both teams are looking to change the tone of their season. I expect the mentally tougher team to win this week.
After a dominant week one game against Indiana State, Hudson Card has struggled against power conference talent levels. He’s gone 18-for-41 with just two touchdowns to three interceptions against Notre Dame and Oregon State. Game on Paper has him as the 120th-ranked QB on EPA per drop-back. Card is an experienced quarterback, and the Blackshirts should be ready for him to play better than in recent weeks.
The trendline on Huskers quarterback Dylan Raiola is something I love to see – a nice, smooth, increasing line. Raiola has only thrown two picks all season, and in both instances, his wide receiver should have made the catch. The young quarterback must set the tone for the Huskers playing their first road game. While the first road game in a young quarterback’s career could be a challenge to some, I think Raiola will rise to the occasion.
Purdue hasn’t finished a season with more rushing yards than passing yards since Nebraska was doing its farewell tour in the Big 12. Led by two very experienced rushers, the current Boilermakers have more yards rushing than passing. Purdue’s leading rusher, Devin Mockobee, set his career-high with 178 yards two years ago against the Huskers. Reggie Love III has been an excellent complimentary piece and has already played the Huskers four times in his career.
The Purdue running game against the Blackshirt run defense is a crucial matchup in this game.
A career day may be in store for Nebraska’s own freight train, Dante Dowdell. The Boilermakers have allowed over 340 yards rushing in each of their last two games (for comparison, the Huskers have allowed 377 yards rushing all season). The Husker offensive line needs a confidence boost after a shaky end to the Illinois game. Piling on the rushing yards could be just what the doctor ordered against the 132nd-ranked run defense.
Both teams come into this game needing a reset. Purdue is starting a fifth-year senior quarterback at home, while Nebraska is starting a teenager making his first-career start on the road. As an analytics-focused person, I know the expected value of passing is more significant than running the ball. However, this is a game I think Nebraska needs to establish the run early. If they can, Nebraska should be able to put a lot of points on the board and help the defense play free and loose.
I expect a comfortable, but not easy, win for the Huskers this week.
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