A look at the 4th Quarter and OT possessions in ALL of Frost’s One-Score Losses

Saw a post here that was only looking at the last possession in these 1 score losses, so I wanted to look at every possession in the 4th quarter/OT in these games.

||Drives|Plays|Yards|plays/drive|yards/drive|yards/play|
:–|–:|–:|–:|–:|–:|–:|
|Drives resulting in TD|12|101|886|8.42|73.83|8.77|
|Drives resulting in FG|3|25|122|8.33|40.67|4.88|
|Drives resulting in Turnover|16|60|250|3.75|15.63|4.17|
|Drives resulting in Downs|8|56|272|7.00|34.00|4.86|
|Drives resulting in Punts|16|71|179|4.44|11.19|2.52​|

We’ve turned the ball over more times than we’ve scored in the 4th Quarter and Overtime, what a ridiculous stat. Not even counting turnovers on downs or punts. We have the same amount of punts as turnovers. Like what!? It’s the one sore spot most people have with Adrian. There just always seems to be a turnover at the worst point in the game to have.

In these games we’ve averaged roughly 4 drives in the 4th quarter/OT.

On these percentages, we have 1 scoring drive, 1 turnover, 1 three and out, and a final drive with turnover on downs or end of game. (Not in that order, simplified for sure)

Looking at just scoring plays, in these same games, our opponents have had 27 scoring drives (16 TD/11 FG). We are outscored 2:1 in the 4th quarter/OT alone and you can attribute that to the guaranteed turnover we have in every game.

It’s wild stats for an offense to have.

If you average the last possession, we average 5 plays for 25 yards. 3 scores (2/1) and SIX turnovers, SEVEN turnovers on downs. A 13 to 3 ratio on last possessions. Fucking crazy. The odds that we score on our last possession is only 15% of the time. I would love to see similar stats from other programs in one score games.

Here’s a quick makeshift table with drives and results charted, it’s not perfect I know.

|Year|Team|Plays|Yards|Turnovers|Downs|Punts|Touchdown|Field Goal|Missed FG|End of Game|
:–|–:|–:|–:|–:|–:|–:|:–|:–|:–|:–|
|2018|Colorado|7|37||1||||||
|||1|0|1|||||||
|||5|16|||1|||||
|||8|44||1||||||
|2018|Troy|6|14|||1|||||
|||11|75||||1||||
|||2|0|1|||||||
|2018|Northwestern|5|76||||1||||
|||3|9|||1|||||
|||9|19|||||1|||
|||3|3|||1|||||
|||2|-5|||||||1|
||OT|4|9|1|||||||
|2018|Ohio State|3|4|||1|||||
|||7|65|||||1|||
|||7|75||||1||||
|2018|Iowa|8|25|1|||||||
|||13|80||||1||||
|2019|Colorado|1|75||||1||||
|||3|-5|1|||||||
|||8|75||||1||||
|||3|0|1|||||||
|||4|13|1|||||||
||overtime|4|-6||||||1||
|2019|Indiana|2|21|1|||||||
|||6|75||||1||||
|||9|59||1||||||
|2019|Purdue|9|71||||1||||
|||4|7||1||||||
|2019|Iowa|3|8|||1|||||
|||3|9|||1|||||
|||3|-7|||1|||||
|||6|9|||1|||||
|||1|0|1|||||||
|2020|Northwestern|5|14|||1|||||
|||9|70|1|||||||
|||13|78||1||||||
|2020|Iowa|6|30|||1|||||
|||6|7|||1|||||
|||4|20|1|||||||
|2020|Minnesota|3|4|1|||||||
|||5|5|||1|||||
|||9|38|||||1|||
|2021|Illinois|8|36|||1|||||
|||19|91||||1||||
|||6|14||1||||||
|2021|Oklahoma|5|63|1|||||||
|||3|38||||1||||
|||4|8||1||||||
|2021|MSU|5|14|1|||||||
|||11|80||||1||||
|||3|7|||1|||||
|||3|15|||1|||||
|||2|12|||||||1|
||OT|3|7|1|||||||
|2021|Michigan|8|75||||1||||
|||3|9|1|||||||
|||5|25||1||||||
|||321|1710|16|8|16|12|3|1|2|
||||||||||||
|Last possession of the game||110|487|6|7|1|2|1|1|2|

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