As the Huskers prepare to start the 2024 season, many fans are feeling confident that this will be Nebraska’s best season in years. This is easily the most hopeful I’ve been at the start of a season since 2019. Honestly, I’m not sure what to do with all this optimistic confidence.*
*But if you need something to counteract the Kool-Aid, there are some reasons for reality that we should all be aware of.
While success is never guaranteed, here are the things that have me the most optimistic heading into the season:
The roster has a good mix of raw talent and deeply experienced seniors.
Technically, Nebraska is still a young team. Of the 151 names on the current roster, 106 (70%) are freshmen, redshirt freshmen, or sophomores. There is a long list of intriguing underclassmen with exciting potential. I’m excited to see Jacory Barney, Dylan Raiola, Caleb Benning, Carter Nelson, Vincent Shavers, Vincent Genatone and Jeremiah Charles, to name just a few.
But at the other end of the roster, almost all of the 19 seniors on the team are expected to start or be contributors. The only seniors that I don’t see getting a ton of snaps are transfer QB Jalyn Gramstad and RB Maurice Mazzccua. Other than that, look for the other 17 seniors to play a big role in Nebraska’s success.
Many of these seniors have a ton of high-level experience dating back to 2019. Compare that to any other Senior Day from the past 30 years, where it feels like half of the honorees are guys you’ve never heard of.
I’ve said it before, and I’ll repeat it here: With all due respect to the five-star legacy quarterback the Huskers signed this winter, the real victory on the day Dylan Raiola committed to NU was the announcement that Isaac Gifford and Bryce Benhart were coming back for one more year. Those two are special players who make everybody around them better.
Raiola, Dylan.
If your optimism is not bubbling over at the prospect of having a legit five-star quarterback, I don’t know what to tell you. Even with very conservative expectations for Dylan Raiola in his true freshman season, I feel confident he’ll be a big step up from what Nebraska had in 2023.
Why does that matter?
Take all of Nebraska’s losses from 2023 and boil them down to a single common denominator. Throw out the close losses, end-of-game failures, and the rest. You’re left with quarterback play.
In Nebraska’s seven losses, the quarterbacks averaged a passing line of 13 of 24 for 129 yards with less than one touchdown (0.6) and two interceptions. Eight of NU’s 15 lost fumbles happened in the losses, many of which came from the quarterback position.
Yuck. You simply cannot win games with QB play like that.
A year ago, Rhule and offensive coordinator/QBs coach Marcus Satterfield tried their best. Nebraska essentially ran a wildcat offense to mask the various weaknesses of their quarterbacks. But it wasn’t enough.
I don’t need Dylan to be a freshman All-American or all-conference player to feel optimistic about his impact on Nebraska’s chances in 2024. Efficient QB play – read progression, accurate throws, and turnover avoidance – will be a HUGE difference-maker.
Raiola, Donovan.
A year ago, I was bullish on the offensive line – led by coach Donovan Raiola. Even with the season-ending injury to left tackle Teddy Prochazka, I still feel good about the line overall.
This is still a veteran group with a ton of experience. The starting five enter the season with 135 career starts – a stat that is even more impressive when you realize that guard Justin Evans has started only twice. The buzz about Florida transfer Micah Mazzccua – an absolute brick house of a human – has been strong.
While the depth (outside of Henry Lutovsky) isn’t very experienced, there are a number of promising underclassmen ready to make their debut. If Donovan is the coach Rhule tells me he is, the redshirt freshmen and sophomores should be ready to start contributing.
Nebraska’s offense – featuring a true freshman quarterback and running back room by committee – will go as far as the offensive line takes it.
Quarterbacks coach Glenn Thomas.
I am extremely optimistic about the impact that new quarterbacks coach Glenn Thomas will have. With no disrespect toward Marcus Satterfield, I believe the lack of development and growth from the quarterbacks was a big reason Nebraska missed out on a bowl game in 2023.
Thomas has the credentials, and he should be a great fit with a young and inexperienced room. I loved how accurate all of the quarterbacks were on short passes in the spring game. Being able to make an accurate throw to a speedy receiver (or tight end) seems so basic, but it has largely evaded NU’s quarterbacks for a long time.
The Blackshirts are back.
The Huskers were the No. 11 defense in the country in 2023, allowing just 303.5 yards per game. They were seventh in touchdowns allowed and 13th in points allowed. They were stout against the run and brought enough pressure and confusion to keep quarterbacks off balance.
The defense, led by coordinator Tony White (whose return is another big reason for optimism), will start seven seniors, and four juniors with a ton of experience. A larger number of underclassmen saw valuable reps in 2023 and could easily turn that experience into extended production if called upon. If nothing else, having a deep defense allows guys to be fresh instead of pacing themselves to play every snap. That’s a big reason for the statistical success above.
Turnover margin.
On the list of “Things that can’t possibly be as bad as they were in 2023”, the first bullet point is “Quarterback Play”. Right below that is “Turnover Margin”. The Huskers were a pathetic -17 in turnover margin last season, ranking 129th out of 130 FBS teams.
The Huskers were bad on both sides of the turnover equation. NU lost 15 fumbles and threw 16 interceptions. For all of the Blackshirts’ success, NU intercepted just nine passes, and only recovered five of the sixteen fumbles forced.
Throughout the spring and summer, the offense and defense have been focusing on turnovers. Limiting the amount of quarterback runs should greatly reduce the number of fumbles, and better accuracy and decision making from Raiola should keep the interception numbers down.
Nebraska doesn’t need to lead the nation in turnover margin to have a great season. Last year, Washington’s margin was an even zero – tied for 66th place with four other teams who made bowl games (California, Duke, Miami (OH), and Wisconsin).
Heck, in Nebraska’s five wins they were a combined -2 in turnover margin. It’s the -15 in the seven losses that killed them. Fix that and things get interesting in a hurry.
The Year 2 effect.
Many teams see a significant bump in wins in a coach’s second year. At Temple, Matt Rhule’s Owls went from two wins to six. At Baylor, he jumped from one win to seven. A similar leap at Nebraska could mean eight or nine wins.
Obviously, those extra wins are not as easy as flashing a “Year 2” pass when the team comes out of the tunnel. There is a lot that needs to go right (and a lot that could go wrong (LINK) for the Year 2 Effect to truly hit.
But if several of things discussed above come to fruition, it could be a fun and memorable season.
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