There’s been a bit of movement in this number from 10 to 7.5, but I wonder if Illinois’ win over Kansas was more about bad Kansas than good Illinois. As bad as things were for the Huskers last year, they did manage to win 20-7 in Champaign. I think Nebraska’s defense makes things tough on Illinois and the Cornhuskers improve to 4-0 in relatively comfortable fashion.
PICK: Nebraska (-7.5) to win by more than 7.5 points
Rice has been incredibly disappointing so far this season. Quarterback E.J. Warner has been an interception machine and the Owls managed just seven points in a blowout loss to Houston. This is my last stand with Rice, as I still think the Owls have the potential to score — IF they can avoid turnovers.
PICK: Rice (+6.5) to lose by fewer than 6.5 points, or win outright
Welcome, Louisville, to the 2024 college football season, after blowing out Austin Peay and Jacksonville State to the tune of 111-14. Tyler Shough and a deep Louisville backfield should be able to move the ball against a Tech defense that allowed 31 points and 515 yards at Syracuse a few weeks back.
PICK: Louisville team total Over 34.5 points scored
With Alex Orji at QB, one has to imagine Michigan will be a run-heavy offense. That will result in the clock running and fewer plays from the Wolverines, which will also in turn help the defense against the USC attack. Complementary football at its finest for a team that has scored just seven offensive touchdowns against Fresno State, Texas and Arkansas State, and only five Power Four teams have scored fewer.
PICK: Michigan team total Under 19.5 points scored
The Hokies have a loss, yes. But at least the teams they’ve faced — Vanderbilt and Marshall — have a pulse. Rutgers defense and running game have been good against Howard and Akron, but going to Lane Stadium is a different task. I don’t think Tech will be looking ahead to the game at Miami next Friday.
PICK: Virginia Tech (-3.5) to win by more than 3.5 points
Tennessee has put up gaudy numbers against inferior competition, but this is a conference road game with a QB making his first start in such an environment. This won’t be Kent State. Yes, Josh Heupel will run it up if he gets a chance, but the Brent Venables defense will probably make things difficult for the Vols. But I don’t see Oklahoma doing much on offense against a really good Vols front, as the Sooners rank 116th in the country in yards per play — slightly ahead of Florida State.
PICK: Under 57.5 points scored by both teams combined
CFB Week 4 Best Bets: Tennessee at Oklahoma, LSU vs. UCLA
Chris “The Bear” Fallica has covered sports for nearly three decades. While college football has been his focus, he also enjoys the NFL, Soccer, Golf, Tennis, MLB, NHL and Horse Racing, with an “occasional” wager on such events. Chris recently won the inaugural Circa Football Invitational and finished in the Top 10 of the Golden Nugget Football Contest. He’s a multiple-time qualifier for the NHC Handicapping Championship. Remember, “The less you bet, the more you lose when you win!” Follow him on Twitter @chrisfallica.
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