There are a few big games on the college football Week 4 oddsboard.
But one matchup certainly stands out more among oddsmakers and bettors: Tennessee vs. Oklahoma.
“So far, that’s probably gonna be our biggest decision,” Caesars Sports head of football trading Joey Feazel said. “There’s very heavy Tennessee action, coupled with the Over.”
Oddsmakers and sharp bettors serve up their insights on Tennessee-Oklahoma and more, in this week’s college football betting nuggets.
It’s All Vols
Midweek, No. 6 Tennessee stood as a 7-point road favorite for Saturday’s 7:30 p.m. ET kickoff vs. No. 15 Oklahoma. That’s where Caesars Sports opened the Vols on Sunday afternoon, and the line jumped up to -7.5 a couple of times.
Both teams are 3-0 straight up (SU), while Tennessee is also 3-0 against the spread (ATS) and Oklahoma is 2-1 ATS. But the Sooners haven’t looked nearly as good.
“Oklahoma’s performance has left a lot to be desired, and Tennessee has no problems scoring on anybody,” Feazel said, pointing to the Vols racking up 51 points or more in all three games.
Granted, blowout home wins over Chattanooga and Kent State don’t say a lot. But the Vols went on the road in Week 2 as 8-point favorites and blasted North Carolina State 51-10.
Bettors are rightly impressed with quarterback and Heisman candidate Nico Iamaleava and the Vols.
“It’s a heavy-action game, and it’s heavily one-sided on the Volunteers,” Feazel said.
College Football Rocks On FOX
This week’s Big Noon Kickoff on FOX is Marshall at No. 3 Ohio State. Surely, there will be a great vibe at the Horseshoe, as there always is. But the Buckeyes are huge favorites, laying 40 points.
However, FOX has a compelling matchup at 8 p.m. ET Friday night. No. 24 Illinois visits No. 22 Nebraska, with both teams 3-0 SU. The Huskers are also 3-0 ATS, while Illinois is 2-1 ATS.
“This is the game I’m really looking forward to,” Feazel said, noting Nebraska might finally be living up to the hype. “Matt Rhule and Dylan Raiola have made a splash the first couple weeks. It’s a higher-powered Nebraska offense than we’ve seen in recent years.
“But Illinois plays really tough defense. Line movement has come toward Illinois, even though Nebraska is a public side.”
Caesars Sports opened Nebraska -9 and briefly touched -9.5/-10 on Tuesday morning. But by Tuesday afternoon, the line fell all the way to -7.5, with stops at -9/-8.5 on the way.
“Does the line go through 7? Probably not, [because] the public is backing Nebraska.”
CFB Week 4 Best Bets: Tennessee at Oklahoma, LSU vs. UCLA
On-Campus Sharp Side
College football betting expert Paul Stone is involved with two games, backing teams from the same state: Oklahoma and Oklahoma State.
As noted above, the Sooners host Tennessee in Oklahoma’s first SEC game. The Vols are 7-point favorites, but Stone noted that over the summer, the Sooners were as high as -4.5 at some sportsbooks.
“Tennessee’s performance through three games has been eye-catching, to put it mildly,” Stone said. “But this is Oklahoma’s first-ever Southeastern Conference game, and the Sooners are expected to get back several key players who have been out due to injury.
“I think the Sooners will be competitive and keep it within a touchdown.”
Among those expected to return for Oklahoma are wideout Nic Anderson and center Branson Hickman.
Meanwhile, 81 miles away in Stillwater, No. 14 Oklahoma State hosts No. 12 Utah at 4 p.m. ET on FOX. The point spread has been all over the map this week, based on speculation about whether Utah quarterback Cam Rising would play.
Rising has a thumb injury and missed the Utes’ 38-21 Week 3 road win over Utah State. But there were reports early this week that Rising would start vs. the Cowboys.
So a line that opened Oklahoma State -2 and got as high as Cowboys -3, ended up flipping as far as Utah -2.5. However, on Wednesday night — despite no official news on Rising — the line again jumped the fence all the way to Cowboys -2.5.
CFB Week 4 Super Six: Utah at Oklahoma State
There are reports of Rising practicing this week, but Stone pointed out that Utah coach Kyle Whittingham does not tip his hand when it comes to player availability information.
Stone expects Rising to play but wonders if the bum thumb might impact the QB’s effectiveness. Regardless, Stone got just about the best of the number in taking Oklahoma State +2.5.
Stone noted that, dating to the 2016 season, Oklahoma State is 8-1 ATS as a home underdog, winning outright in each of the eight covers.
“Boone Pickens Stadium is one of college football’s most raucous environments,” Stone said. “If Utah stacks the box to stop [running back] Ollie Gordon, then Alan Bowman and a host of capable receivers led by Brennan Presley will get it done through the air.
“I think Oklahoma State spoils Utah’s Big 12 debut and wins outright.”
More Utah-Oklahoma State
Feazel and the Caesars Sports risk room are also paying a lot of attention to Utah vs. Oklahoma State. The Cowboys opened -2.5 and got to -3 early this week, but by Tuesday morning at Caesars, the number flipped to Utes -2.5.
On Wednesday night, Caesars joined others in going to Cowboys -2.5.
“It’s a surprise to see how much early action is on the Utah side, especially since Oklahoma State is one of those teams the public likes to back.” Feazel said.
That early action was probably banking on Rising being under center Saturday night. Keep a close eye on Rising’s status here.
USC vs. Michigan: Joel Klatt and Matt Leinart break down Big Ten showdown
Michigan Making Moves
Michigan (2-1 SU/0-3 ATS) has already taken one beating on its home field. The Wolverines lost to Texas 31-12 in Week 2. After an unimpressive 28-18 win over Arkansas State in Week 3, Michigan coach Sherrone Moore decided a change was needed.
So Alex Orji will start at QB this week, replacing David Warren, which Feazel doesn’t take as a good sign.
“The saying goes, ‘If you have two quarterbacks, then you have none,’” he said. “This is another game attracting a lot of one-way action on USC. There’s also Under money, which is not a surprise, given how Michigan is gonna want to play this game. The Under is the sharper side.”
Southern Cal opened as a 6.5-point road favorite and is down to -5.5 midweek. The total opened at 45.5 and initially climbed to 46.5, then receded to 44.5.
I Like Big Bets And I Cannot Lie
As Saturday draws closer, more major wagers will roll in at sportsbooks across the country. But Caesars has seen a few early big plays in the college football Week 4 odds market.
The largest bet is $15,000 on Army moneyline -235 vs. Rice. If the Black Knights — who are 6-point favorites on the spread — just win the game, regardless of score, the bettor profits $6,383 (total payout $21,383).
Other notable plays at Caesars:
- $12,000 on Tennessee -7.5 (-115) vs. Oklahoma. Potential profit $10,434.78 (total payout $22,434.78)
- $5,500 on Nebraska -7.5 vs. Illinois. Potential profit $5,000 (total payout $10,500)
- $5,500 on USC -5.5 vs. Michigan. Potential profit $5,000 (total payout $10,500)
The big bets are certainly fun to track. But remember to keep it reasonable. Never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He’s based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas.
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