With Week 0 set to kick off the college football season, it’s not just the games getting bettors’ attention. College Football Playoff odds are, of course, quite popular. So, too, are the odds for regular-season win totals.
Especially for one team expected to be in the thick of the national championship chase.
“Everything this summer has been on Ohio State: To win the national championship, to win the Big Ten, to make the playoffs, to go undefeated and Over 10.5 wins,” BetMGM trading manager Seamus Magee said.
Magee shares his behind-the-counter insights on which teams are seeing the most notable action — both Over and Under — in college football regular-season win totals.
Season Win Totals: Over Action
Ohio State is the consensus second choice in odds to win the College Football Playoff. BetMGM has the Buckeyes at +325, right on the heels of +300 favorite Georgia.
So expectations are clearly high in Columbus. Ohio State clearing 10.5 wins in the regular season would certainly help meet those expectations.
Oddsmakers certainly see it happening. At BetMGM, Over 10.5 is a -175 favorite, meaning it would take a $175 bet to profit $100 ($275 total payout). On the flip side, Under 10.5 is a +145 underdog. If you think the Buckeyes will win 10 games or fewer, then a $100 bet would profit $145 ($245 total payout).
But early bettors are banking on the Over.
“Bettors [with us] can’t get enough of the Buckeyes, and I can’t say I blame them,” Magee said. “Everything coming out of Columbus sounds like this could be a generational Ohio State defense.”
However, a challenging Big Ten schedule that now includes Oregon — yes, Oregon is in the Big Ten — could make that 11th win elusive.
“Quarterback Will Howard steps into the spotlight now. And while the defense may make his job seemingly easy, games against Oregon, Penn State and Michigan are going to be true litmus tests for Howard and this offense,” Magee said.
Remember when Nebraska was always good? That consistency has faded the past few years. The Huskers finished sub-.500 each of the last seven seasons. In 2023, under new coach Matt Rhule, Nebraska went 5-7.
But oddsmakers and bettors are a little more optimistic this season. The Huskers’ season win total is 7.5, with Over a -150 favorite and Under a +125 underdog.
“It’s another year of Nebraska hype. However, it feels like Matt Rhule finally has the Huskers going in the right direction,” Magee said. “They bring in a highly touted QB in Dylan Raiola and only see Ohio State out of the top teams in the Big 10.”
Raiola is a true freshman, which certainly adds to the Huskers’ challenge. But again, bettors are high on this squad at the moment.
“At BetMGM, Nebraska has been among everyone’s favorite sleeper teams for the Big 10 and maybe even a playoff spot. I definitely don’t [discount] this team winning eight games. I trust Matt Rhule, especially if Raiola is the real deal.”
You won’t see much written this season about Indiana. Not in a Big Ten featuring national championship contender Ohio State, along with defending national champion Michigan, perennially solid Penn State and now Oregon.
But early action shows bettors think the Hoosiers can at least go 6-6. BetMGM has Indiana’s regular-season win total at 5.5, with Over at -150 and Under at +125. A new coach seems to be contributing to the optimism.
“Indiana hired Curt Cignetti away from James Madison, then hit the transfer portal hard. They’ve brought in a number of players to help the program get off on the right foot with the new coach,” Magee said. “Plenty of bettors believe that the Hoosiers can get to a bowl in Year 1 under Cignetti.”
The Hoosiers’ non-conference schedule — home games against Florida International, Western Illinois and Charlotte — could get the Hoosiers halfway to the Over.
“The non-conference schedule looks like three easy wins,” Magee said. “But there are some Big Ten games that it feels like they have to have in order to get there — Michigan State, Maryland, UCLA.”
Florida feels a bit like Nebraska these days. The Gators are coming off a 5-7 campaign and no bowl game, while posting their third consecutive losing season. Florida hasn’t reached double-digit wins since going 11-2 in 2019.
And this year, expectations are very low. BetMGM has the Gators’ regular-season win total at a meager 4.5. But the Over is currently a -155 favorite, and a fair amount of BetMGM customers see Florida at least getting to five wins.
“This is a very interesting one. We’re pretty lopsided on Over 4.5, for a team with the hardest schedule in the land,” Magee said.
Indeed, the Gators have eight ranked teams on their 12-game schedule. That includes a brutal five-week stretch to cap the season: vs. No. 1 Georgia (neutral site), at No. 4 Texas, vs. No. 13 LSU, vs. No. 6 Ole Miss and at No. 10 Florida State.
“I suppose if you get a season where [QB] Grahm Mertz improves after last year — when he was better — then the Gators could surprise some teams,” Magee said. “There is no denying the talent on this roster. But the last five games of the year are just a gauntlet. There’s a real world where they lose five in a row off their bye.”
CFB Week 0 Player Props: Oregon’s Evan Stewart and Dillon Gabriel
Regular Season Win Totals: Under Action
Heisman Trophy winner Jayden Daniels moved on to the NFL and the Washington Commanders. As such, BetMGM has the Tigers’ regular-season win total at just 9, with Over a very slim -115 favorite and Under -105.
Magee sees a wide range of possibilities for coach Brian Kelly’s squad this season.
“I have a lot of uncertainty about this LSU team. I could see the Tigers going anywhere from 11-1 to 7-5,” he said. “LSU has to replace a ton of production on the offensive side of the ball, and bettors at BetMGM don’t see them winning 10 games.
“The start of the schedule is light compared to what the back half entails, with trips to Kyle Field (Texas A&M) and the Swamp (Florida), along with home games vs. ‘Bama and Oklahoma.”
The Tigers also host sixth-ranked Ole Miss this season.
Dabo Swinney and Clemson became quite accustomed to double-digit-win seasons, along with CFP appearances. From 2011-2022, the Tigers posted 10 or more wins (including bowl/playoff games) every year.
Last year, however, Clemson went just 8-4 in the regular season. So even a bowl win over Kentucky couldn’t keep the double-digit streak going. This season, BetMGM opened the Tigers’ regular-season win total at 9.5, but it’s now down to 9, with Over a modest -120 favorite.
“In a lot of cases, I think betting splits and money on win totals can almost serve as a referendum on a program. In the age of NIL and the transfer portal, Clemson did not add a single transfer to its roster,” Magee said.
That made Clemson the only FBS team that didn’t utilize the transfer portal.
“In turn, bettors flocked to Under 9.5 wins for Clemson. There’s still money coming in on Under 9,” Magee said.
However, there are some bright spots for the Tigers, and with them perhaps an opportunity to eclipse their win total.
“On the other hand, I’m starting to come around on this Clemson team. The Tigers bring back essentially the whole offense and will hopefully get a continuity boost on that front,” Magee said. “In fairness, the schedule does them no favors: Georgia in Atlanta for Week 1, at Virginia Tech late in the season, at Florida State.
“Thankfully for the Tigers, when they play Louisville and North Carolina State, those are both at home and off bye weeks. I think the hate has gotten a little out of hand. This team is still capable of winning 10 games and making the ACC Championship Game, in my opinion.”
The Yellow Jackets play in the first game of the season, taking on ACC rival and 10th-ranked Florida State on Saturday. It’s a neutral-site game in Dublin, Ireland, and Georgia Tech is a 10.5-point underdog.
So oddsmakers and bettors pretty much already have the Yellow Jackets at 0-1. BetMGM opened Georgia Tech’s season win total at 5.5, and it’s down to 5, with Under a -115 favorite.
“Georgia Tech has probably the second- or third-hardest schedule in the country and is seeing plenty of nonbelievers in them getting to a bowl game,” Magee said. “Under 5.5 is one of the most-bet Unders we’ve had this offseason.”
The Yellow Jackets face five ranked teams. Along with the opener vs. Florida State, Georgia Tech meets No. 7 Notre Dame (neutral site), hosts No. 19 Miami and No. 24 N.C. State, and finishes the season at No. 1 Georgia.
“It’s easy to look at the schedule and say this team won’t be playing in a bowl,” Magee said. “But I like [coach] Brent Key. He’s really building something with this team. However, the Yellow Jackets will have to steal a few road games if they want any shot of making a bowl.”
Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He’s based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him at @PatrickE_Vegas.
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