On this week’s Saturday Morning Coffee Show, Josh Peterson and Jack Mitchell looked at the win total of 7½ for the 2025 Nebraska football season. Could it have been any other number? And if they’re going to go over, what’s the path that allows for it to happen?
Below is a lightly-edited transcript of their conversation.
Josh: Should we talk some win totals?
Jack: Let’s go!
Josh: Jack, I was listening yesterday on my way to the office to the Audible Podcast with Stewart Mandel and Bruce Feldman, and the Nebraska win total of 7½ came up. And Bruce Feldman [was] very bullish on the over. He said, “I think they’re going to go 8-4. I could see them going 9-3.” And I thought of you and I thought of the many commenters that we have that either (A) want to get very excited for the season or (B) say, “you’re an idiot. You’re doing this again. You always do this. You do this every single year.”
Jack: That’s what I told Bruce Feldman. “You’re doing it again, Bruce, you’re doing it again.” Classic Bruce, when will he learn?
Josh: Mandel basically said that to him. “You always do this with Nebraska!”
Jack: First of all, the number, 7.5; that was the most predictable number I think I’ve ever seen in one of these. 6.5 wouldn’t have made sense and 8.5 wouldn’t have made sense in my opinion.
Josh: 8½ would have been way too high. 6½ would have been way too low.
Jack: 7½ is right on the number in my opinion.
Josh: For sure. So, what’s your early lean?
Jack: Whether I’m above it or below it, you’ve got to play the schedule game, right?
Josh: Of course. Yeah.
Jack: Man, it’s right between seven and eight. It’s one or the other. That’s how the season ends, seven or eight. It’s one or the other, so I’m basically just trying to pick one game. There’s one swing game that I’m trying to identify; what it is and what will happen in it.
Josh: That’s a good question: What are the games that swing this for the over or the under? The first obvious one is the literal first game of the year, right? I thought Sam McKewon wrote about it well recently where he said, if they win that game, it is expected. If they lose that game, it can change a whole lot. I’m paraphrasing what Sam said, but it’s basically [that] this is the personification of “you cannot lose this, but if you win it, you’re not going to get a ton of credit for it.”
Jack: Yep. I 100% agree. I’m counting that one as a win. If that’s a loss, all bets are off in my opinion.
Josh: Jack, that’d be a disaster. If they lose that opener, we’re having bad times. It’s going to be season.
Jack: Bad times are coming if they can’t win that game. So, I’m counting that as a win. I’m counting 3-0
Josh: You’re saying 3-0 when Michigan comes to town.
Jack: Yeah. I know by now, nothing is for sure, but I would say the next most sure if you’re stacking them would probably be Michigan State and Northwestern at home, right? In terms of most likely wins? Where does it become a swing game? That’s what I’m saying.
Josh: That’s a good question. Cause I would say it’s probably the Huskies when they come into town in week three, then I’d go with Akron and then you’d probably say Northwestern. And so that would be the three most likely wins. And then you’re probably talking about Cincinnati, four and then, I think Michigan State, five.
Again, we’re just talking about probability right now. Those are the five most probable wins.
Jack: That’s kind of the base, right? And so then that leaves the next level of games, which are at Maryland, at Minnesota… should we have Maryland in that group too?
Josh: I’m okay with leaving that outside of it, because now we’re starting to talk about road games/better teams.
Jack: So, the next group is at Maryland, at Minnesota, at UCLA.
Josh: I would go at Maryland and UCLA, maybe as their own little category, cause Jack, do you know that Minnesota has beaten Nebraska all but one time since 2017? Nebraska only has one win. That was Frost’s first year. Otherwise, they lose and they lose often in heartbreaking groin kicky fashion, as you will see coming soon this summer, the Groin Kick Chronicles on the I-80 Club. So, I would have Minnesota away from those two.
Jack: So, you’d have Maryland and UCLA in that next group of likelihood of winning. That would be seven. And again, let me just for the purposes of this exercise; I don’t believe any [Big Ten] game is a guaranteed win. I do believe Houston Christian is a guaranteed win. And Akron actually I believe is, but outside of those two, don’t believe there are any; every game could be loss beyond those two.
What I’m trying to find [are] games that you feel you’re at a percentage that is high enough for the purposes of calculating wins to say they’re in the “safe enough” category before you get into the “swing games” category. I don’t know that I would put both at Maryland and at UCLA. I feel like then I would start to do this thing where I was like, “well, I’ll give us one out of those two,” right? When I’m putting this number together.
So, if you had Akron, Houston Christian, Northwestern, and Michigan State, four [wins], and then I’m giving you one out of the Maryland [or] UCLA game, as “sure enough” that gets you to get you to five. I counted Cincinnati too. So that’s six. So that gets you to six. And now here we are, Josh. We’re here on the precipice of the six, seven, eight group. Do you get any more? Do you get any more out of Michigan, Southern Cal, at home, at Minnesota, at Penn State, and Iowa at home?
Watch the clip below!
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